{"schema_version": 1, "id": "great-falls-mt-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 185, "label": "Great Falls, MT MSA", "slug": "great-falls-mt-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:38:21.912146+00:00", "headline": "Great Falls holds steady as Montana's labor force quietly shrinks.", "headline_summary": "Cascade County unemployment sits at 3.0%, well below the national 4.1%, even as Montana lost 5,300 jobs statewide over the past year and labor-force participation slipped to 62.6%.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Cascade County unemployment", "value": "3.0%", "context": "vs. 4.1% national, July 2026"}, {"label": "Montana annual job change", "value": "-5,300 jobs", "context": "First annual decline since 2020"}, {"label": "Montana labor-force participation", "value": "62.6%", "context": "Down from 63.1% a year ago"}, {"label": "Cascade County avg. weekly wage", "value": "$1,126", "context": "Q1 2026, per BLS QCEW"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Full employment coexists with a shrinking labor pool statewide.", "body": "Montana's 3.1% unemployment rate ranks among the nation's lowest, yet the state lost 5,300 jobs over the past year and participation fell to 62.6%. For Great Falls, this points to a labor market defined by scarcity of available workers amid continued economic demand."}, {"headline": "Public-sector staffing strain shows up in the Cascade County Sheriff's Office.", "body": "Four employee resignations this fall forced operational changes limiting detention center inmate populations, following hiring events in April and May. Localized public-sector staffing gaps of this kind can affect service delivery well before broader employment statistics register any change."}, {"headline": "Skilled-trades wages are outrunning the broader metro pay picture.", "body": "Electrician pay rose significantly to $79,168 locally against a stable national median of $71,835, and construction laborer pay climbed significantly to $48,880. This divergence is consistent with continued demand tied to construction and infrastructure activity even as sectors like manufacturing and retail show flat or declining advertised pay."}, {"headline": "Healthcare pay strength contrasts with softer allied-health signals.", "body": "Registered nurse pay rose significantly to $112,429, consistent with Montana's statewide 5.4% healthcare employment growth, while certified nursing assistant pay fell moderately to $39,821. Divergence within the same sector suggests uneven demand pressure across healthcare hiring."}], "local_conditions": "Cascade County's unemployment rate stood at 3.0% in July, firmly below the national 4.1%, even as Montana as a whole shed 5,300 jobs over the past year and statewide labor-force participation slipped to 62.6% from 63.1% a year ago. Great Falls employment remains anchored by government (5.3% of local jobs), Malmstrom Air Force Base, healthcare, and retail, with county-level average weekly wages of $1,126 running above the Montana average of $1,229 statewide but still trailing national wage growth benchmarks.", "implications": "Local economic momentum reads as stable \u2014 low joblessness coexists with Montana's first annual statewide job decline since 2020, suggesting Great Falls is best characterized as holding steady. Commerce leaders weighing expansion or investment decisions should treat wage gains in electrician ($79,040, up significantly) and registered nurse ($112,429, up significantly) job ads \u2014 a signal of hiring demand, where one ad often covers several openings \u2014 as evidence of targeted sector tightness. Current conditions suggest monitoring whether healthcare and skilled trades momentum extends into other sectors before drawing conclusions about the metro's overall investment climate.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected", "body": "Montana's October labor market data releases November 20, which will show whether Cascade County's summer unemployment uptick (2.9% to 3.4%) was seasonal noise or the start of a softer trend heading into winter."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Cascade County Sheriff's Office staffing shortages reflect a national pattern in detention and public-safety roles; watch whether other local public-sector employers report similar strain as a signal of broader public-service capacity constraints."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Montana's minimum wage rises to $11.20 on January 1, 2027, from $10.85 \u2014 a modest statutory increase that will mechanically lift the pay floor for retail and food-service roles already showing upward local movement (cashier, food service worker)."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Statewide labor-force participation has declined for a full year alongside flat employment since mid-2024. If Great Falls mirrors this pattern, commerce leaders evaluating local market capacity should watch participation data together with the unemployment rate."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28785.5, "metro_p50": 32980.0, "metro_p75": 42652.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26409.0, "metro_p50": 30058.2, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53040.0, "metro_p50": 79168.4, "metro_p75": 87875.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31187.0, "metro_p50": 34018.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37274.0, "metro_p50": 48880.0, "metro_p75": 49920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 66019.0, "metro_p50": 79040.0, "metro_p75": 116974.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34270.0, "metro_p50": 35818.4, "metro_p75": 37379.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28772.75, "metro_p50": 36920.0, "metro_p75": 40654.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38002.0, "metro_p50": 39821.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35893.0, "metro_p50": 40487.0, "metro_p75": 42224.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 87500.0, "metro_p50": 87500.0, "metro_p75": 87500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 87292.0, "metro_p50": 112428.8, "metro_p75": 122166.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 111358.0, "metro_p50": 130692.6, "metro_p75": 142693.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 99175.0, "metro_p50": 143711.6, "metro_p75": 159248.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52220.0, "metro_p50": 57500.0, "metro_p75": 64936.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63814.0, "metro_p50": 78982.8, "metro_p75": 79021.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57200.0, "metro_p50": 67797.0, "metro_p75": 75169.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 43369.0, "metro_p50": 57507.0, "metro_p75": 70608.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 59421.0, "metro_p50": 96405.6, "metro_p75": 108810.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32760.0, "metro_p50": 50336.8, "metro_p75": 56011.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62259.0, "metro_p50": 84977.0, "metro_p75": 95681.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 52814.75, "metro_p50": 65501.2, "metro_p75": 70938.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 81328.0, "metro_p50": 96469.0, "metro_p75": 109028.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 62500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 84403.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 39520.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 41172.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 52293.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 58240.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 73672.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 100000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 34320.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 61873.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Cascade County unemployment rate was 3.0% in July 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Montana statewide labor-force participation fell to 62.6%"}, {"source_name": "Missoula Current / MATR", "source_url": null, "statement": "Montana lost 5,300 jobs over the past year, first annual decline since 2020"}, {"source_name": "Montana Right Now", "source_url": null, "statement": "Cascade County Sheriff's Office staffing shortage after four resignations"}, {"source_name": "Montana Department of Labor and Industry", "source_url": null, "statement": "Montana minimum wage rises to $11.20 effective January 1, 2027"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Cascade County average weekly wage of $1,126 in Q1 2026"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "great-falls-mt-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "great-falls-mt-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "great-falls-mt-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:22:34.069333+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/great-falls-mt-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/great-falls-mt-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}