{"schema_version": 1, "id": "great-falls-mt-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 185, "label": "Great Falls, MT MSA", "slug": "great-falls-mt-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:39:33.609534+00:00", "headline": "Great Falls holds steady at full employment, but growth stays elusive.", "headline_summary": "Cascade County unemployment sat at 3.0% in July against a 4.1% national rate, yet Montana's statewide employment fell 0.3% in 2025 even as wages rose a nation-leading 5.4%.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Cascade County unemployment", "value": "3.0%", "context": "vs 4.1% national, July 2026"}, {"label": "Montana employment change, 2025", "value": "-0.3%", "context": "First annual decline since 2020"}, {"label": "Montana wage growth, 2025", "value": "5.4%", "context": "No. 1 nationally vs 3.4% U.S. average"}, {"label": "Montana avg weekly wage", "value": "$1,229", "context": "Ranks 48th nationally despite growth lead"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Full employment without job growth defines this market.", "body": "Cascade County unemployment near 3.0% looks tight, but Montana's statewide employment fell 0.3% in 2025 even as the labor force grew \u2014 a sign the local economy is stable, not expanding. That distinction matters more for investment timing than the headline rate alone."}, {"headline": "Federal and healthcare employment carry disproportionate weight here.", "body": "Malmstrom Air Force Base and federal civilian jobs account for over half of basic industry income locally, with healthcare adding over 1,200 jobs statewide in 2025 \u2014 the largest hospital employment gain since 2016. Any shift in federal posture or healthcare system expansion would move the local economy more than most other single sectors combined."}, {"headline": "Montana's wage story is better than its wage level.", "body": "Montana ranked first nationally for wage growth in 2025 at 5.4%, yet still ranks 48th in absolute average weekly wages at $1,229. Local commerce leaders should read strong wage growth figures in context \u2014 they reflect a lower starting base, not a market overheating."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing softness contrasts with construction and healthcare strength.", "body": "Statewide manufacturing employment fell 2.8% and mining dropped nearly 13% following the Sibanye-Stillwater closure, while construction labor advertised pay in Great Falls rose moderately. The divergence points to a two-speed local economy where physical infrastructure and care-sector activity are absorbing demand that industrial production is shedding."}], "local_conditions": "Cascade County's unemployment rate sat at 3.0% in July 2026, well below the national 4.1% reading, as Malmstrom Air Force Base and healthcare employment continue to anchor a labor market still outperforming national and even many statewide peers. Montana's broader \"no-hire, no-fire\" pattern \u2014 statewide employment down 0.3% in 2025 even as the labor force hit a record 577,800 \u2014 is consistent with Great Falls conditions, where federal civilian payrolls, manufacturing (10% of basic industry income), and healthcare (11%) are doing the work of stabilizing a metro economy that shows little fresh hiring momentum.", "implications": "Flat statewide hiring alongside sub-3% county unemployment suggests Great Falls is operating near full labor utilization without the job creation that typically signals expansion, a combination that favors businesses planning steady operations over those betting on rapid local growth. Commerce leaders evaluating site selection or expansion timing should weigh that Montana trails nationally in average weekly wages (48th) despite leading in wage growth (5.4% in 2025), a split that keeps labor costs comparatively contained even as workers see real purchasing-power gains \u2014 consider reviewing how this wage-cost gap compares to peer metros before finalizing 2027 investment or facility decisions.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected release", "body": "BLS metro-level data for Great Falls MSA covering September conditions is due October 20, 2026, alongside Montana's statewide August-to-September comparison. Watch whether the county holds its sub-3.5% range or shows the slight softening seen in national August-September payroll revisions."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "National wage growth has slowed to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation \u2014 the first real-wage erosion since 2021. If that national pattern reaches Montana's $1,229 average weekly wage, it would reverse a two-year run of local purchasing-power gains relevant to consumer spending forecasts."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Only four Montana urban counties saw 2025 job growth (Flathead, Gallatin, Yellowstone, Silver Bow); Cascade County was not among them. Economic development leaders should track whether any sector shift \u2014 healthcare expansion, federal spending changes, or construction activity \u2014 moves Great Falls into that growth cohort over the next two quarters."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Statewide, 58,000 Montana workers (6% of the labor force) remain sidelined by childcare constraints or underemployment. Local labor force participation data worth monitoring as a constraint on how much slack genuinely exists in the Great Falls labor pool despite a low headline unemployment rate."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29120.0, "metro_p50": 32965.0, "metro_p75": 42917.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25453.0, "metro_p50": 29155.0, "metro_p75": 31889.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33163.0, "metro_p50": 39104.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53040.0, "metro_p50": 77500.0, "metro_p75": 87750.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29601.0, "metro_p50": 32659.0, "metro_p75": 37320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35211.5, "metro_p50": 44720.0, "metro_p75": 49920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65894.25, "metro_p50": 71028.8, "metro_p75": 119600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34270.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 37587.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29836.0, "metro_p50": 29921.4, "metro_p75": 34920.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38002.0, "metro_p50": 40259.0, "metro_p75": 42972.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 39728.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 87500.0, "metro_p50": 87500.0, "metro_p75": 87500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 86163.0, "metro_p50": 108934.0, "metro_p75": 120000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 108624.25, "metro_p50": 121936.0, "metro_p75": 139899.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 99189.0, "metro_p50": 145000.0, "metro_p75": 159248.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52328.0, "metro_p50": 55850.0, "metro_p75": 60000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65752.0, "metro_p50": 78976.0, "metro_p75": 79021.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62350.0, "metro_p50": 75169.0, "metro_p75": 77146.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 43369.0, "metro_p50": 57995.6, "metro_p75": 70334.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 73678.5, "metro_p50": 96224.0, "metro_p75": 101982.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32240.0, "metro_p50": 50520.0, "metro_p75": 55899.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62305.0, "metro_p50": 88101.0, "metro_p75": 95681.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 45691.25, "metro_p50": 48404.8, "metro_p75": 49567.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 80011.5, "metro_p50": 94586.0, "metro_p75": 110188.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 58224.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 87496.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 38642.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 41340.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 55186.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 56872.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 74405.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 99126.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 33863.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 63427.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "great-falls-mt-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "great-falls-mt-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "great-falls-mt-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:51:03.116593+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/great-falls-mt-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/great-falls-mt-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}