Great Falls holds steady at full employment, but growth stays elusive.
3.0%
Cascade County unemployment
vs 4.1% national, July 2026
-0.3%
Montana employment change, 2025
First annual decline since 2020
5.4%
Montana wage growth, 2025
No. 1 nationally vs 3.4% U.S. average
$1,229
Montana avg weekly wage
Ranks 48th nationally despite growth lead
This Month's Takeaways
01
Full employment without job growth defines this market.
Cascade County unemployment near 3.0% looks tight, but Montana's statewide employment fell 0.3% in 2025 even as the labor force grew — a sign the local economy is stable, not expanding. That distinction matters more for investment timing than the headline rate alone.
02
Federal and healthcare employment carry disproportionate weight here.
Malmstrom Air Force Base and federal civilian jobs account for over half of basic industry income locally, with healthcare adding over 1,200 jobs statewide in 2025 — the largest hospital employment gain since 2016. Any shift in federal posture or healthcare system expansion would move the local economy more than most other single sectors combined.
03
Montana's wage story is better than its wage level.
Montana ranked first nationally for wage growth in 2025 at 5.4%, yet still ranks 48th in absolute average weekly wages at $1,229. Local commerce leaders should read strong wage growth figures in context — they reflect a lower starting base, not a market overheating.
04
Manufacturing softness contrasts with construction and healthcare strength.
Statewide manufacturing employment fell 2.8% and mining dropped nearly 13% following the Sibanye-Stillwater closure, while construction labor advertised pay in Great Falls rose moderately. The divergence points to a two-speed local economy where physical infrastructure and care-sector activity are absorbing demand that industrial production is shedding.
Local Economic Conditions
Cascade County's unemployment rate sat at 3.0% in July 2026, well below the national 4.1% reading, as Malmstrom Air Force Base and healthcare employment continue to anchor a labor market still outperforming national and even many statewide peers. Montana's broader "no-hire, no-fire" pattern — statewide employment down 0.3% in 2025 even as the labor force hit a record 577,800 — is consistent with Great Falls conditions, where federal civilian payrolls, manufacturing (10% of basic industry income), and healthcare (11%) are doing the work of stabilizing a metro economy that shows little fresh hiring momentum.
Open Threads in the Data
Flat statewide hiring alongside sub-3% county unemployment suggests Great Falls is operating near full labor utilization without the job creation that typically signals expansion, a combination that favors businesses planning steady operations over those betting on rapid local growth. Commerce leaders evaluating site selection or expansion timing should weigh that Montana trails nationally in average weekly wages (48th) despite leading in wage growth (5.4% in 2025), a split that keeps labor costs comparatively contained even as workers see real purchasing-power gains — consider reviewing how this wage-cost gap compares to peer metros before finalizing 2027 investment or facility decisions.
Advertised Pay Indicators · WageScape Benchmark 25 Jobs
Job postings data for the Great Falls, MT MSA metro — median advertised pay, its recent trend, and the number of active postings behind each figure. Jobs are grouped for readability and are not the same as the 10 sector classifications on the next page. For additional job detail contact WageScape.
Retail Trade
| Retail Sales Associate |
$32,965 |
↓ Moderate decline |
544 |
| Retail Cashier |
$29,155 |
→ Stable |
151 |
Transportation & Warehousing
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate |
$39,104 |
→ Stable |
69 |
| CDL Truck Driver |
$77,500 |
↓ Moderate decline |
463 |
| Delivery Driver |
$32,659 |
↓ Significant decline |
531 |
| Warehouse Manager |
— |
Limited local postings |
— |
Construction
| Construction Laborer |
$44,720 |
↑ Moderate increase |
55 |
Construction/Skilled Trades
| Electrician |
$71,029 |
↑ Significant increase |
44 |
| HVAC Technician |
$87,500 |
→ Stable |
25 |
Manufacturing
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler |
$35,360 |
↓ Significant decline |
11 |
Cross-Sector
| Customer Service Representative |
$35,360 |
→ Stable |
64 |
| Operations Manager |
— |
Limited local postings |
— |
Leisure & Hospitality
| Food Service Worker |
$29,921 |
↓ Moderate decline |
44 |
Healthcare
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide |
$40,259 |
↓ Moderate decline |
196 |
| Registered Nurse |
$108,934 |
↑ Significant increase |
1,389 |
Admin/Office Support
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk |
$39,728 |
→ Stable |
140 |
Information/Technology
| Software Engineer |
$121,936 |
↑ Significant increase |
26 |
| Data Engineer |
$145,000 |
↑ Significant increase |
3,400 |
Professional & Business Services
| Accountant |
$55,850 |
↓ Moderate decline |
81 |
| HR Generalist/Manager |
$75,169 |
↑ Significant increase |
11 |
| Marketing Specialist |
$57,996 |
→ Stable |
785 |
| Business Analyst |
$94,586 |
↑ Significant increase |
11 |
Finance & Insurance
| Financial Analyst |
$78,976 |
→ Stable |
31 |
Government/Education
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher |
$50,520 |
↓ Significant decline |
215 |
Cross-Sector Sales
| Account Manager |
$88,101 |
↑ Moderate increase |
56 |
Industry Snapshot · Great Falls, MT MSA
Advertised pay and job-posting trends across the whole metro economy, rolled up by employer industry — not just the bellwether roles above.
| Sector |
Median Pay Change |
Job Postings Change |
| Construction |
↑ +5.6% |
↑ +180.0% |
| Manufacturing |
↑ +65.1% |
↑ +552.0% |
| Retail Trade |
↑ +3.2% |
↑ +115.1% |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities |
↓ −5.4% |
↑ +312.5% |
| Information |
↓ −6.2% |
↑ +108.7% |
| Financial Activities |
↑ +9.0% |
↑ +160.5% |
| Professional & Business Services |
↑ +28.4% |
↑ +309.6% |
| Education & Health Services |
↑ +56.8% |
↑ +66.9% |
| Leisure & Hospitality |
↓ −7.8% |
↑ +127.9% |
| Government |
↑ +49.5% |
↑ +807.7% |
Looking Ahead · Next 30–60 Days
Expected release
BLS metro-level data for Great Falls MSA covering September conditions is due October 20, 2026, alongside Montana's statewide August-to-September comparison. Watch whether the county holds its sub-3.5% range or shows the slight softening seen in national August-September payroll revisions.
Worth watching
National wage growth has slowed to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation — the first real-wage erosion since 2021. If that national pattern reaches Montana's $1,229 average weekly wage, it would reverse a two-year run of local purchasing-power gains relevant to consumer spending forecasts.
Potential inflection point
Only four Montana urban counties saw 2025 job growth (Flathead, Gallatin, Yellowstone, Silver Bow); Cascade County was not among them. Economic development leaders should track whether any sector shift — healthcare expansion, federal spending changes, or construction activity — moves Great Falls into that growth cohort over the next two quarters.
Emerging pressure point
Statewide, 58,000 Montana workers (6% of the labor force) remain sidelined by childcare constraints or underemployment. Local labor force participation data worth monitoring as a constraint on how much slack genuinely exists in the Great Falls labor pool despite a low headline unemployment rate.
Sources & Methodology
Pay and hiring data provided by WageScape. See every source cited in this report, with links →
Advertised pay reflects the pay ranges employers publish in active job postings in this metro, not survey or payroll data. Pay trends compare the current period with the prior period for the same metro and role. Sector figures group postings by the employer's industry classification; sectors with limited classified postings are marked as such rather than estimated. This briefing is independent of, and complements, official statistics from the BLS and state labor market information offices.
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