{"schema_version": 1, "id": "grand-forks-nd-mn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 207, "label": "Grand Forks, ND-MN MSA", "slug": "grand-forks-nd-mn-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:39:19.389728+00:00", "headline": "Grand Forks unemployment nearly doubles while North Dakota stays historically tight.", "headline_summary": "Metro unemployment rose to 4.2% in September from a 2.5% April low even as North Dakota's statewide rate held at 2.1%, with local labor force participation shrinking from 57.6 to 57.2 thousand workers between June and August.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "4.2%", "context": "Up from 2.5% in April 2026"}, {"label": "North Dakota unemployment rate", "value": "2.1%", "context": "vs 4.2% Grand Forks metro"}, {"label": "Metro labor force", "value": "57.2 thousand", "context": "Down from 57.6 thousand in June 2026"}, {"label": "Metro average hourly wage", "value": "$29.80", "context": "vs $33.54 national average, May 2025 data"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Metro unemployment is rising even as the state stays historically tight.", "body": "Grand Forks metro unemployment reached 4.2% in September versus North Dakota's 2.1% statewide rate, a gap that suggests local labor softening is not simply mirroring state or national trends. Economic development messaging built on statewide tightness may overstate the local hiring environment."}, {"headline": "Labor force contraction, not just job loss, is shrinking the local workforce.", "body": "Civilian labor force fell from 57.6 thousand to 57.2 thousand between June and August 2026 while employment dropped to 55.4 thousand, indicating some residents are exiting the labor force rather than simply losing jobs. A shrinking labor pool limits how quickly any new facility, including the planned Agristo plant, could be staffed from local supply alone."}, {"headline": "Skilled-trade and healthcare pay is softening against a tight state talent pool.", "body": "Registered nurse, HVAC technician, and electrician advertised pay all moved down locally even as national figures for electricians and HVAC techs rose, a divergence worth watching given the state's reported shortages in healthcare and skilled trades. Softening local pay in occupations facing acute statewide scarcity may reflect a temporarily thinner demand signal rather than resolved supply constraints."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing and finance advertised pay point to where real momentum sits.", "body": "Manufacturing production worker pay rose moderately and financial analyst pay rose significantly in the metro, outpacing several white-collar categories. These sectors appear to be the clearest bright spots for commerce leaders assessing where local business investment is translating into wage pressure."}], "local_conditions": "Grand Forks metro unemployment climbed to 4.2% in September 2026 from a 2.5% low in April, as the civilian labor force contracted from 57.6 thousand in June to 57.2 thousand by August and employment slipped to 55.4 thousand \u2014 a pattern distinct from North Dakota's statewide 2.1% rate and 69.2% participation level. Advertised wages are diverging sharply by sector locally, with manufacturing production and financial analyst pay rising moderately-to-significantly even as registered nurse, HVAC technician, and electrician advertised pay moved downward, suggesting metro-specific softening layered atop a historically tight state labor market.", "implications": "Metro unemployment nearly doubling from its spring low while the state as a whole holds near 2.1% indicates Grand Forks is cooling faster than its surrounding region, a signal commerce leaders should weigh before treating statewide tightness as a proxy for local conditions. The planned $450 million Agristo processing facility and the existing UAS cluster represent two of the few visible local demand anchors against an otherwise contracting labor force, making near-term business investment timing highly sector-dependent rather than uniformly favorable. Current conditions suggest commerce and economic development leaders evaluate sector-specific momentum \u2014 not metro-wide averages \u2014 before characterizing the local business climate as either expanding or contracting.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Watch whether the metro's unemployment rise through September proves transitory or extends into Q4 reporting; a continued climb toward or past 4.5% would mark a meaningful break from the tight labor conditions of 2025."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Track whether the Agristo facility's construction and hiring timeline begins showing up in local payroll and labor force data, given its scale relative to the metro's current 55.4 thousand employed base."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "North Dakota's new state workforce department and the Governor's Workforce Summit findings on 38 counties reporting shortages may generate policy responses worth tracking for their effect on regional labor supply, including any immigration-related workforce measures, which should be reported on a facts-only basis."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Monitor whether UAS cluster executive and business-development hiring activity, flagged by national search firms as active, translates into visible local job postings \u2014 a signal of whether the sector is scaling locally or recruiting primarily from outside the metro."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27040.0, "metro_p50": 31610.6, "metro_p75": 34195.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27040.0, "metro_p50": 31708.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34046.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56404.5, "metro_p50": 80000.0, "metro_p75": 97500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31762.0, "metro_p50": 34561.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34578.0, "metro_p50": 42640.0, "metro_p75": 47840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67431.0, "metro_p50": 81692.0, "metro_p75": 88233.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35833.5, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32983.0, "metro_p50": 37789.0, "metro_p75": 39849.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29896.0, "metro_p50": 37523.0, "metro_p75": 40654.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34927.0, "metro_p50": 42620.0, "metro_p75": 48651.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 45405.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60724.75, "metro_p50": 63500.0, "metro_p75": 65005.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 77929.0, "metro_p50": 87869.0, "metro_p75": 102495.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 80641.5, "metro_p50": 134700.0, "metro_p75": 150410.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 77841.0, "metro_p50": 119934.0, "metro_p75": 137804.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58111.5, "metro_p50": 63920.0, "metro_p75": 71219.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79167.0, "metro_p50": 94413.6, "metro_p75": 95903.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61020.0, "metro_p50": 62975.0, "metro_p75": 67057.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 42500.0, "metro_p50": 57796.0, "metro_p75": 68522.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 81707.5, "metro_p50": 84803.6, "metro_p75": 88834.0, "metro_trend_direction": null, "metro_trend_magnitude": null, "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 50102.2, "metro_p75": 65466.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65000.0, "metro_p50": 80000.0, "metro_p75": 87559.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": null, "metro_p25": null, "metro_p50": null, "metro_p75": null, "metro_trend_direction": null, "metro_trend_magnitude": null, "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 73602.0, "metro_p50": 87646.0, "metro_p75": 97323.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 62400.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 90000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 45899.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 49067.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 59064.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 55000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 66772.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 64757.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 34947.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 67973.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "grand-forks-nd-mn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "grand-forks-nd-mn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "grand-forks-nd-mn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:50:58.923168+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/grand-forks-nd-mn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/grand-forks-nd-mn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}