{"schema_version": 1, "id": "fresno-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 171, "label": "Fresno, CA MSA", "slug": "fresno-ca-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:37:24.586355+00:00", "headline": "Fresno jobless rate drops to 7.4%, but fewer workers are looking.", "headline_summary": "Fresno County's unemployment rate fell to 7.4% in September from 7.8% in August, yet the labor force has shrunk by 3,500 workers over the past year even as the statewide rate held at 5.1% and the national rate sat at 4.1%.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Fresno County unemployment rate", "value": "7.4%", "context": "Down from 7.8% in August; vs. 5.1% statewide"}, {"label": "Year-over-year labor force change", "value": "-3,500 workers", "context": "Despite county adding jobs over same period"}, {"label": "Fresno MSA average weekly wage", "value": "$1,171", "context": "Q1 2026, vs. $1,986 statewide average"}, {"label": "National unemployment rate", "value": "4.1%", "context": "October 2026, vs. 7.4% Fresno County"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "A one-month unemployment drop masks a longer labor-supply problem.", "body": "September's decline to 7.4% reflects more residents finding work, but the labor force has lost 3,500 workers over the past year even as the county added jobs. That divergence suggests fewer people are available to fill positions than headline unemployment implies, a dynamic economic development officials should track separately from the monthly rate."}, {"headline": "Healthcare and education are doing the heavy lifting again.", "body": "Private education and health services added 8,000 jobs in Fresno County in September, mirroring the statewide pattern where the same sector posted California's largest gains. Registered Nurse pay locally is up significantly to a median of $117,249, outpacing the national figure of $102,252 \u2014 a sign the sector's momentum is backed by wage movement alongside job counts."}, {"headline": "Fresno's jobless rate still runs far above state and national marks.", "body": "At 7.4% in September, Fresno sits well above California's 5.1% and the nation's 4.1%, continuing a persistent inland-coastal divide also visible in Bakersfield-Delano (7.9%) and Imperial County (20.8%). That gap is a structural feature of the Valley economy that has held across multiple months, and should temper any narrative of rapid convergence with state or national conditions."}, {"headline": "Wage gains are concentrated across a narrow slice of the local job basket.", "body": "HVAC Technician ($76,346), Warehouse Manager ($94,853), and Account Manager ($96,457) advertised pay all show significant local increases, while Manufacturing Production Worker pay is down moderately to $36,054, trailing the national median of $39,520. That split suggests uneven momentum across the goods-producing and skilled-trades segments of the local economy worth distinguishing from headline job growth."}], "local_conditions": "Fresno County's unemployment rate fell to 7.4% in September from 7.8% in August, with 8,300 more residents employed and 1,700 fewer unemployed, even as the labor force grew to 478,400 from 471,900 a month earlier. Private education and health services drove the gain, adding 8,000 jobs, while a structural undercurrent persists: the county's labor force shrank by 3,500 workers over the trailing year, a pattern distinct from the one-month improvement and one state economists will want reconciled before calling a trend.", "implications": "Fresno's unemployment rate remains roughly 230 basis points above the statewide figure of 5.1% and more than triple the national 4.1%, a gap that argues for caution before treating the September improvement as a turning point in local economic momentum. Public-sector and health-education stability look like the metro's most reliable economic ballast right now, consistent with statewide patterns where education and health services led job gains while leisure and hospitality contracted. Commerce leaders evaluating expansion timing should consider weighing the one-month unemployment improvement against the slower-moving labor force trend before drawing conclusions about underlying demand.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Whether October and November unemployment data confirm September's improvement or revert toward the 7.8%-8.1% range seen earlier in 2026. A second consecutive monthly decline would strengthen the case that Fresno's labor market is stabilizing."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Fresno County's year-over-year labor force contraction of 3,500 workers bears watching alongside statewide debate over labor force participation, particularly given national commentary tying slower labor force growth to immigration policy and retirements. Local economists should track whether labor force figures stabilize or continue contracting into the winter months."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "California's SB 951, requiring WARN notices to disclose AI-driven layoffs starting with quarterly EDD displacement reports, will begin surfacing data relevant to Valley employers in logistics, agriculture-adjacent manufacturing, and back-office functions. Fresno-based employers have not yet appeared in major 2026 WARN filings, but the reporting mechanism is new and worth monitoring for early signals."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Manufacturing Production Worker pay in Fresno is down moderately against a stable national trend, a divergence that merits watching against California's statewide employment figures showing only four of eleven sectors adding jobs in September. Continued softening would mark a notable departure from the public-sector and healthcare-led stability driving the broader local numbers."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34314.0, "metro_p50": 37336.0, "metro_p75": 39998.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31959.0, "metro_p50": 36140.0, "metro_p75": 39416.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33687.5, "metro_p50": 38175.4, "metro_p75": 40810.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54578.5, "metro_p50": 70657.0, "metro_p75": 80000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33509.0, "metro_p50": 37336.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35180.0, "metro_p50": 39724.4, "metro_p75": 43754.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55917.0, "metro_p50": 70720.0, "metro_p75": 77820.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32398.75, "metro_p50": 36054.0, "metro_p75": 39240.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36400.0, "metro_p50": 40372.6, "metro_p75": 47122.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32852.0, "metro_p50": 37960.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 45406.0, "metro_p75": 52519.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34945.0, "metro_p50": 42694.0, "metro_p75": 47840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62611.5, "metro_p50": 76346.0, "metro_p75": 90343.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 91520.0, "metro_p50": 117249.0, "metro_p75": 125070.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 119929.5, "metro_p50": 154100.0, "metro_p75": 171669.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 99186.0, "metro_p50": 145000.0, "metro_p75": 159248.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59231.0, "metro_p50": 69365.0, "metro_p75": 77009.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72779.5, "metro_p50": 92500.0, "metro_p75": 101623.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54000.0, "metro_p50": 78844.0, "metro_p75": 85527.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43355.0, "metro_p50": 55753.2, "metro_p75": 67999.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 81730.0, "metro_p50": 109470.8, "metro_p75": 129375.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 49787.0, "metro_p50": 62355.0, "metro_p75": 67889.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63927.0, "metro_p50": 96456.6, "metro_p75": 118691.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 74500.0, "metro_p50": 94853.0, "metro_p75": 102750.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 82739.0, "metro_p50": 98291.8, "metro_p75": 111182.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 82770.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 109893.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 48880.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 65590.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 121254.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 101000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 89781.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 72452.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 41600.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 69831.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "fresno-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "fresno-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "fresno-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:22:13.110210+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/fresno-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/fresno-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}