{"schema_version": 1, "id": "fort-smith-ar-ok-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 155, "label": "Fort Smith, AR-OK MSA", "slug": "fort-smith-ar-ok-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:41:04.390823+00:00", "headline": "Fort Smith unemployment falls as the job count keeps shrinking.", "headline_summary": "Fort Smith's jobless rate dropped to 3.8% in August even as the metro shed 800 jobs year-over-year through February -- the only Arkansas metro to post a decline, while statewide employment hit record highs.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Fort Smith metro unemployment", "value": "3.8%", "context": "Down from 4.5% in June-July 2026"}, {"label": "Fort Smith nonfarm payrolls", "value": "101,000", "context": "Down 800 y/y, only AR metro to decline"}, {"label": "Arkansas unemployment rate", "value": "3.9%", "context": "Vs. 4.2% national rate, Sept. 2026"}, {"label": "Arkansas wage withholding growth", "value": "+5.7%", "context": "Year-over-year, October state revenue report"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "A falling jobless rate is masking a shrinking job base.", "body": "Fort Smith's unemployment rate dropped to 3.8% in August even as nonfarm payrolls fell 800 year-over-year through February, the only metro-area decline in Arkansas. That combination points to labor force contraction as the likelier driver, a distinction that matters for anyone reading the headline rate as a growth signal."}, {"headline": "Public-sector consolidation is reshaping local government payrolls quietly.", "body": "Sebastian County's communications department merged into a new joint River Valley Communications Center with Fort Smith in October, retaining affected staff in new roles. Statewide, government added more jobs than any other sector in September, suggesting public employment remains a stabilizing force even amid municipal restructuring."}, {"headline": "Professional-services pay is softening while production wages firm up.", "body": "Local data engineer and business analyst advertised pay fell significantly this month, while manufacturing production worker pay rose moderately. Read together, the pattern is consistent with a metro economy where goods-producing and logistics activity holds its footing while white-collar demand cools faster than the national trend."}, {"headline": "Wage-vs-inflation gap is a real constraint on local spending power.", "body": "National median weekly earnings rose 1.5% against a 3.5% CPI gain in Q3, and Arkansas's own average weekly wage slipped 0.7% year-over-year through August. For a metro already showing payroll softness, that erosion compounds pressure on consumer-facing sectors like retail and hospitality that depend on discretionary local spending."}], "local_conditions": "Fort Smith metro unemployment tightened to 3.8% in August, down from 4.5% in June and July, even as the area continues a structural payroll drag -- 101,000 nonfarm jobs in February 2026 marked a year-over-year decline of 800, the only such drop among Arkansas's seven metro areas. Statewide forces are offsetting some of that local softness: Arkansas's civilian labor force and employment levels hit record highs in September, with government (+10,500) and private education and health services (+3,600) payrolls driving most of the growth, a pattern that appears to extend into Fort Smith's public-sector and healthcare base even as its broader job count lags.", "implications": "Falling unemployment alongside a shrinking job count signals a labor force that is contracting as fast as, or faster than, labor demand -- a dynamic that affects site-selection conversations and capital investment decisions more than it affects any single employer's staffing plans. Sector divergence is sharpening: manufacturing production wages rose at a moderate clip locally while white-collar categories like data engineering and business analysis posted significant local pay declines, consistent with softer demand for professional services roles even as production and public-sector roles hold steadier footing. Commerce leaders evaluating expansion or relocation incentives should weigh labor force participation trends alongside headline unemployment, since a tightening rate driven by fewer job-seekers reads differently than one driven by stronger demand.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether Fort Smith's September and October BLS releases, due in late November, confirm the August unemployment improvement or reveal it was driven by labor force exits alongside limited job growth. That distinction will matter for how economic development officials frame the metro's trajectory publicly."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Arkansas's wage withholding tax receipts grew 5.7% year-over-year in October, a fiscal signal of statewide labor market strength that has yet to clearly show up in Fort Smith's own payroll counts. A continued disconnect between state fiscal data and metro job counts is worth tracking for local budget forecasting."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Manufacturing employment nationally has grown for ten straight months, adding 72,000 jobs since December 2025. Whether Fort Smith's roughly 17,800 manufacturing workers participate in that national rebound, or continue the metro's broader payroll drag, will shape the sector-level narrative commerce leaders bring to site-selection and investment conversations."}, {"category": "Policy to monitor", "body": "Federal tariff and immigration enforcement policy continue to shape labor force growth nationally, with curbs on immigration cited as a structural headwind to labor supply. Local effects on Fort Smith's manufacturing and logistics workforce availability warrant neutral, fact-based tracking, given the lack of metro-specific policy data this month."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 21872.25, "metro_p50": 25686.0, "metro_p75": 29120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23058.0, "metro_p50": 25936.4, "metro_p75": 28080.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29921.0, "metro_p50": 32866.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56879.75, "metro_p50": 75400.0, "metro_p75": 87230.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26055.0, "metro_p50": 32240.0, "metro_p75": 35906.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27040.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 33094.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59275.0, "metro_p50": 68000.0, "metro_p75": 72894.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32142.0, "metro_p50": 35713.6, "metro_p75": 37972.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31000.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27000.0, "metro_p50": 28080.0, "metro_p75": 28080.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29120.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28166.5, "metro_p50": 33181.2, "metro_p75": 37180.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 51519.0, "metro_p50": 57200.0, "metro_p75": 64160.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79136.0, "metro_p50": 87147.2, "metro_p75": 96520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 107680.5, "metro_p50": 123524.8, "metro_p75": 131450.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 82093.0, "metro_p50": 127181.0, "metro_p75": 155356.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50000.0, "metro_p50": 60000.8, "metro_p75": 66828.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 87035.0, "metro_p50": 90993.0, "metro_p75": 93221.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45524.25, "metro_p50": 62825.0, "metro_p75": 63663.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 44697.0, "metro_p50": 61187.2, "metro_p75": 75103.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 60059.0, "metro_p50": 76001.0, "metro_p75": 95000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28080.0, "metro_p50": 45015.0, "metro_p75": 51504.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57848.75, "metro_p50": 80000.0, "metro_p75": 94457.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 46547.5, "metro_p50": 60781.2, "metro_p75": 70032.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79765.5, "metro_p50": 89701.8, "metro_p75": 96241.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 57500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 71975.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 33576.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 38170.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 67188.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 64312.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 79081.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 67373.5, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 28019.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 64835.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)", "source_url": null, "statement": "Fort Smith MSA unemployment rate was 3.8% in August 2026"}, {"source_name": "Talk Business & Politics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Fort Smith was only AR metro with year-over-year job decline, 101,000 nonfarm jobs"}, {"source_name": "Arkansas Department of Commerce", "source_url": null, "statement": "Arkansas government added 10,500 jobs, private education/health added 3,600 in September"}, {"source_name": "Northwest Arkansas Online", "source_url": null, "statement": "Sebastian County/Fort Smith 911 centers merged into River Valley Communications Center"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "National manufacturing employment up 72,000 since December 2025"}, {"source_name": "Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration", "source_url": null, "statement": "Arkansas wage withholding for personal income taxes grew 5.7% year-over-year"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "fort-smith-ar-ok-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "fort-smith-ar-ok-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "fort-smith-ar-ok-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:22:06.448441+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/fort-smith-ar-ok-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/fort-smith-ar-ok-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}