{"schema_version": 1, "id": "fort-smith-ar-ok-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 155, "label": "Fort Smith, AR-OK MSA", "slug": "fort-smith-ar-ok-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:39:27.533624+00:00", "headline": "Fort Smith jobless rate climbs above state and national lines.", "headline_summary": "Fort Smith's preliminary 4.5% July unemployment rate sits above Arkansas's 3.9% and the national 4.1%, even as statewide wages in Benton County rose 8.9% and Fort Smith's own average weekly wage remains a third below the U.S. figure.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Fort Smith unemployment rate", "value": "4.5%", "context": "vs 3.9% Arkansas, 4.1% U.S. (July 2026)"}, {"label": "Fort Smith avg weekly wage", "value": "$1,066", "context": "vs $1,569 U.S. average (Q4 2025)"}, {"label": "Nonfarm payroll change (metro)", "value": "-0.6%", "context": "12-mo. decline as of April 2026, moderating from -1.4%"}, {"label": "Arkansas labor force participation", "value": "59.1%", "context": "up 0.4 pts y/y, but flat last month"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Fort Smith unemployment outpaces both state and nation.", "body": "July's preliminary 4.5% local rate compares against 3.9% statewide and 4.1% nationally, a gap that has persisted through 2026 despite Arkansas posting four consecutive months of improvement. Widening divergence from the state average is a defensible, quotable signal that Fort Smith's recovery trajectory differs materially from Northwest Arkansas and the Little Rock corridor."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing pay gains mask a shrinking payroll base.", "body": "Metro manufacturing production/assembler pay rose moderately even as statewide nonfarm wage and salary employment showed a 12-month decline as recent as April 2026. Rising pay alongside payroll contraction is consistent with fewer, more specialized positions rather than broad-based expansion in the sector."}, {"headline": "Wage levels remain well below national benchmarks across the board.", "body": "Fort Smith's Q4 2025 average weekly wage of $1,066 trails the U.S. average of $1,569 by nearly a third, a gap wider than the state average. Persistent wage-level disparity, not just wage growth, is the more structural story for regional cost-of-living and purchasing-power comparisons that commerce leaders cite in competitiveness discussions."}, {"headline": "CDL driver pay softening bucks a logistics-dependent metro's historical pattern.", "body": "Metro CDL pay moved down moderately this month even as ArcBest and the region's trucking and distribution base remain central employers. A pullback in driver pay in a metro built on logistics infrastructure may suggest softening freight demand locally, worth tracking against national freight indices."}], "local_conditions": "Fort Smith's preliminary unemployment rate stood at 4.5% in July 2026, above both the Arkansas statewide rate of 3.9% and the national rate of 4.1%, with nonfarm payroll employment still contracting on a year-over-year basis as of the most recent data available. Local softness contrasts with statewide momentum concentrated in Northwest Arkansas and Benton County, where wage growth and job creation continue to outpace both Fort Smith and the national average, suggesting the metro's manufacturing- and logistics-heavy base is lagging the broader state recovery.", "implications": "Divergence between Fort Smith's elevated jobless rate and Arkansas's four-year unemployment low suggests the metro's economic engine \u2014 distribution, manufacturing, and trucking \u2014 is cooling faster than the state as a whole, a signal relevant to site-selection, capital investment, and public infrastructure planning rather than payroll decisions alone. Advertised pay for manufacturing production and CNA/home health roles is rising locally even as CDL driver and HVAC pay soften, pointing to uneven sector momentum rather than a uniform expansion or contraction. Commerce leaders and economic development officials should consider weighing Fort Smith's relative softness against Northwest Arkansas's strength when evaluating regional competitiveness claims or incentive proposals this quarter.\n\n", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Data gap to monitor", "body": "September 2026 metro-specific BLS figures were not yet published at writing; August and September releases, expected in coming weeks, will show whether July's 4.5% rate was a peak or a new baseline."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether Arkansas's statewide labor force participation plateau near 59.1% extends to Fort Smith, where participation has historically trailed the state average \u2014 a sustained gap would point to structural labor supply constraints rather than cyclical softness."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National WARN filings show elevated activity among logistics and manufacturing-adjacent employers (Amazon, Tyson Foods); any announcement affecting Fort Smith's distribution or food-processing base over the next 60 days would be the clearest local test of that national pattern."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Federal tariff and immigration enforcement policy continue to show up as factors in national manufacturing and food-processing employment data; Fort Smith's concentration in both sectors makes it a reasonable bellwether, though no local, sourced impact has yet been documented."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22348.0, "metro_p50": 26000.0, "metro_p75": 29212.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22880.0, "metro_p50": 25507.0, "metro_p75": 27948.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29602.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54423.75, "metro_p50": 75400.0, "metro_p75": 87197.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28301.0, "metro_p50": 35324.2, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27040.0, "metro_p50": 30359.4, "metro_p75": 31205.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59275.0, "metro_p50": 68066.8, "metro_p75": 71344.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32377.25, "metro_p50": 35917.4, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30813.0, "metro_p50": 35651.0, "metro_p75": 37109.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27000.25, "metro_p50": 28080.0, "metro_p75": 28080.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29120.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 38064.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28201.5, "metro_p50": 32698.2, "metro_p75": 36171.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 51519.0, "metro_p50": 59729.0, "metro_p75": 62400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 80056.0, "metro_p50": 90760.0, "metro_p75": 102612.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 105563.5, "metro_p50": 123985.6, "metro_p75": 131025.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 82093.0, "metro_p50": 146278.0, "metro_p75": 162586.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50000.0, "metro_p50": 57129.4, "metro_p75": 66828.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 75199.0, "metro_p50": 87776.8, "metro_p75": 92853.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 48495.0, "metro_p50": 70653.0, "metro_p75": 77744.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 44520.0, "metro_p50": 60000.0, "metro_p75": 73742.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 60450.0, "metro_p50": 64000.0, "metro_p75": 76001.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27411.75, "metro_p50": 47926.0, "metro_p75": 52248.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62500.0, "metro_p50": 90000.0, "metro_p75": 100726.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 46082.5, "metro_p50": 54828.0, "metro_p75": 70032.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 82059.0, "metro_p50": 91325.0, "metro_p75": 96712.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 58163.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 71974.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 34632.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 38170.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 67467.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 62526.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 78373.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 78325.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 27990.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 65111.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "fort-smith-ar-ok-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "fort-smith-ar-ok-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "fort-smith-ar-ok-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:50:44.736844+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/fort-smith-ar-ok-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/fort-smith-ar-ok-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}