{"schema_version": 1, "id": "fort-collins-loveland-co-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 147, "label": "Fort Collins-Loveland, CO MSA", "slug": "fort-collins-loveland-co-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:39:22.872750+00:00", "headline": "Fort Collins outpaces a softening Colorado, but the margin is thinning.", "headline_summary": "Larimer County unemployment near 3.6% and wage growth above 9% year-over-year beat Colorado's 4.0% statewide rate and three straight months of state job losses, but slowing migration is narrowing the metro's labor-supply cushion.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Larimer County unemployment", "value": "3.6%-3.8%", "context": "vs 4.0% Colorado, 4.1-4.2% national"}, {"label": "Larimer County wage growth", "value": "9.2%-11.5% YoY", "context": "Highest among Colorado's nine largest counties"}, {"label": "Colorado statewide job change", "value": "-1,400 jobs (Aug 2026)", "context": "Third straight monthly decline in 2026"}, {"label": "Colorado net domestic migration", "value": "Negative in 2025", "context": "Only peer state with net out-migration"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Larimer County's wage growth leads Colorado, but the base is thinning.", "body": "County wage growth of roughly 9-11% year-over-year outpaces every large Colorado county, yet it coincides with slower migration and a shrinking available labor pool rather than surging demand. That combination points to tightness-driven wage pressure, not necessarily expansion-driven hiring strength."}, {"headline": "Fort Collins unemployment advantage over the state is narrowing, not widening.", "body": "Larimer County unemployment near 3.6-3.8% remains below Colorado's 4.0% and the national 4.1-4.2%, but Colorado itself has posted three consecutive months of statewide job losses through August. The metro's cushion depends on whether state softness stays contained or spreads north from Denver-metro financial and information-sector losses."}, {"headline": "Public-sector resilience is a story to watch, not assume.", "body": "Colorado's 2026 outlook names government among the top three sectors for projected job growth, directly at odds with national data showing a 216,000 decline in government payrolls over the past year. Local economic planners should treat this divergence as an open question rather than a settled trend."}, {"headline": "Migration slowdown is quietly reshaping the region's growth math.", "body": "Net domestic migration into Colorado turned negative in 2025, and Fort Collins-specific inflows have slowed alongside it, directly limiting labor force expansion even where job creation holds steady. Commerce leaders evaluating the metro's capacity for business attraction should treat labor supply, not job availability, as the more binding constraint going forward."}], "local_conditions": "Fort Collins-Loveland's labor market continues to outperform a softening state backdrop, with Larimer County unemployment near 3.6-3.8% versus Colorado's 4.0% statewide rate in August, even as the metro's 900-job gain in June and modest 2026 monthly average of 483 jobs suggest recovery is real but gradual rather than robust. Slower net migration into the metro \u2014 echoing Colorado's broader shift to negative domestic migration in 2025 \u2014 is constraining labor force growth just as wage data shows Larimer County posting the largest year-over-year wage gains (9.2%-11.5%) of any large Colorado county, a combination consistent with a market where available workers, not available jobs, is becoming the binding constraint.", "implications": "Economic development and chamber leaders weighing business-attraction pitches should note that Fort Collins' unemployment advantage over the state and national rate is real, but a slowing population inflow means that advantage rests on a shrinking labor pool rather than abundant slack \u2014 a nuance that matters for any employer considering a metro-scale expansion here. Local government economists tracking public-sector stability should also watch that Colorado's 2026 outlook still projects government as a top-three growth sector even as national government payrolls have shed jobs for a year running, making Fort Collins something of a test case for whether state-level public-sector resilience holds locally. Current conditions suggest commerce leaders frame economic development messaging around wage-growth leadership and low unemployment, while acknowledging labor supply constraints as a serious long-term planning variable rather than a footnote.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Colorado's third consecutive month of statewide job losses through August raises the question of whether Larimer County's relative strength persists through fall data releases or begins converging toward the state average."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National government payrolls have shrunk for a year, while Colorado's 2026 forecast still bets on public-sector growth; state and local employment reports over the next two months will show whether Fort Collins-area government hiring is bucking or following the national pattern."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Net domestic out-migration from Colorado in 2025 was unique among peer states; continued softness in migration data would be the clearest sign that labor force growth, not job demand, is becoming the metro's primary economic constraint."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Statewide WARN notices were down 11% in 2026, a modestly reassuring signal, but any filings tied to financial activities or information-sector contraction \u2014 sectors already shedding jobs statewide \u2014 bear watching for spillover into Larimer County's more diversified, white-collar employment base."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30678.0, "metro_p50": 34792.0, "metro_p75": 37076.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31044.25, "metro_p50": 33930.0, "metro_p75": 36000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34755.5, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62634.0, "metro_p50": 81045.0, "metro_p75": 90000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33370.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 37236.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 41618.0, "metro_p75": 44720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59280.0, "metro_p50": 76339.8, "metro_p75": 82160.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36400.0, "metro_p50": 41714.6, "metro_p75": 44720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33312.0, "metro_p50": 39322.0, "metro_p75": 42120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31460.0, "metro_p50": 32028.0, "metro_p75": 33883.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 40812.0, "metro_p50": 46800.0, "metro_p75": 48769.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39245.5, "metro_p50": 44720.0, "metro_p75": 49919.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60612.0, "metro_p50": 72800.0, "metro_p75": 80080.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 82427.0, "metro_p50": 92380.0, "metro_p75": 98182.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 114066.0, "metro_p50": 148979.6, "metro_p75": 175183.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 83523.0, "metro_p50": 83830.0, "metro_p75": 124474.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59453.75, "metro_p50": 67870.4, "metro_p75": 75000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72627.0, "metro_p50": 79963.0, "metro_p75": 91000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63695.75, "metro_p50": 78998.0, "metro_p75": 100452.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52983.0, "metro_p50": 62500.0, "metro_p75": 81000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 78593.0, "metro_p50": 95453.2, "metro_p75": 103143.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39520.0, "metro_p50": 57224.0, "metro_p75": 68884.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59971.0, "metro_p50": 79950.0, "metro_p75": 92500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 51506.0, "metro_p50": 52224.8, "metro_p75": 53015.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79674.0, "metro_p50": 103176.4, "metro_p75": 108057.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 77500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 95025.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 38262.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 63513.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 146106.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 53040.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 57200.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 54470.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 35360.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 66051.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "fort-collins-loveland-co-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "fort-collins-loveland-co-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "fort-collins-loveland-co-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:50:43.544101+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/fort-collins-loveland-co-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/fort-collins-loveland-co-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}