{"schema_version": 1, "id": "fond-du-lac-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 199, "label": "Fond du Lac, WI MSA", "slug": "fond-du-lac-wi-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T06:33:38.677257+00:00", "headline": "Fond du Lac tightens to 2.6% unemployment as FOH pay slips", "headline_summary": "Metro unemployment fell to 2.6% in September while local Server pay dropped to a $28,600 median even as General Manager pay climbed to $61,000.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "2.6%", "context": "Down from 3.2% in August; vs 4.2% national rate"}, {"label": "Restaurant Manager/GM pay", "value": "$61,000", "context": "Up significantly; vs $59,724 national median"}, {"label": "Server advertised pay", "value": "$28,600", "context": "Down moderately; vs $35,024 national median"}, {"label": "Restaurant industry turnover (WI)", "value": "~80%", "context": "Up from ~72% pre-pandemic baseline"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Management pay climbs while front-of-house compensation slips.", "body": "Restaurant Manager/GM median pay rose to $61,000 locally, a significant increase and above the $59,724 national figure, while Server pay fell to $28,600 (moderate decline) against a $35,024 national median. Operators appear to be concentrating scarce wage dollars on retaining leadership, leaving FOH staff more exposed to competitor poaching."}, {"headline": "Sub-3% unemployment leaves almost no slack to hire into.", "body": "September's 2.6% metro rate, down from 3.2% in August, confirms a labor pool tighter than the 4.2% national rate and most peer Wisconsin metros. Expect longer time-to-fill for entry-level crew and server roles through the holiday season unless sourcing expands beyond the immediate county."}, {"headline": "Tipped-wage rule change creates a federal cushion with limited local reach.", "body": "DOL's withdrawal of the 80/20 rule reduces side-work wage exposure nationally, but Wisconsin's $2.33 tipped floor and lack of local wage ordinances mean Fond du Lac operators see limited practical relief compared to employers in states with higher tipped minimums. Treat this as a compliance simplification, not a cost-reduction lever."}, {"headline": "Line cook pay gains hint at back-of-house wage pressure building.", "body": "Line Cook median pay rose to $35,360 locally (moderate increase), consistent with BLS projections that cook employment grows 12% through 2035 versus 2% for waitstaff. Kitchen roles may require more proactive compensation benchmarking than front-of-house positions over the next year."}], "local_conditions": "Fond du Lac's metro unemployment rate fell to 2.6% in September, a full point below the 3.2% August reading and well under the 4.2% national rate, signaling a labor pool with little slack left for restaurant operators to draw from. Leisure and hospitality remains one of Wisconsin's few growth sectors, expanding roughly 3% statewide even as broader nonfarm payrolls contracted, which concentrates hiring competition on the same shrinking base of hourly workers restaurants depend on.", "implications": "Tight local unemployment combined with Wisconsin's frozen $7.25 minimum wage and $2.33 tipped wage leaves Fond du Lac operators with little room to compete on base pay against Milwaukee's $12.00 local ordinance or neighboring Minnesota's $11.41 floor, making retention and scheduling practices an immediate lever alongside wage-floor policy. Locally, General Manager pay rising to a $61,000 median (up significantly, outpacing the $59,724 national figure) alongside falling Server and Assistant Manager pay points to a market rewarding operational leadership while compressing front-of-house entry wages \u2014 a split that can widen turnover risk on the floor even as management retention improves. Consider reviewing front-of-house pay structures against this local divergence before assuming management-level gains signal broader wage health.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected", "body": "November's official BLS metro unemployment release (covering October) should confirm whether the drop to 2.6% holds or reflects seasonal non-adjustment; watch for any pullback as holiday hiring concludes."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Server and Assistant Manager pay softness, if sustained into Q1 2027, could widen the gap with Milwaukee and Minnesota wage floors enough to accelerate commuting-distance turnover among front-of-house staff."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Statewide 80% restaurant turnover and 70% difficult-to-fill reporting from the National Restaurant Association suggest Fond du Lac operators should track whether local job ad volume for crew and server roles \u2014 a signal of hiring demand, since each ad often covers several openings \u2014 keeps climbing into winter."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Watch whether the DOL's 80/20 rule withdrawal prompts any Wisconsin-specific guidance from the state Department of Workforce Development; compliance clarity could shift how operators structure tipped-role scheduling in Q1."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31416.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 38068.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39211.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 38115.5, "metro_p50": 50416.0, "metro_p75": 55284.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 50076.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24246.0, "metro_p50": 26106.0, "metro_p75": 27040.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 30066.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29328.25, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 37421.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53097.0, "metro_p50": 61000.0, "metro_p75": 61500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 59724.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23608.0, "metro_p50": 28600.0, "metro_p75": 30160.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 35024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27040.0, "metro_p50": 32012.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "Fond du Lac metro unemployment fell from 3.2% to 2.6% in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Wisconsin leisure and hospitality employment grew roughly 3%"}, {"source_name": "Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "Wisconsin minimum wage frozen at $7.25 since 2009; tipped wage $2.33"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "DOL withdrew the 80/20 rule for tipped wage side-work duties"}, {"source_name": "National Restaurant Association", "source_url": null, "statement": "Restaurant turnover near 80%, up from 72% pre-pandemic"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "BLS projects 12% cook employment growth through 2035 vs 2% for waiters"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "fond-du-lac-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "pdf": "fond-du-lac-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:22:02.216225+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/fond-du-lac-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/fond-du-lac-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}