{"schema_version": 1, "id": "fond-du-lac-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 199, "label": "Fond du Lac, WI MSA", "slug": "fond-du-lac-wi-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:33:11.555672+00:00", "headline": "Fond du Lac crew pay falls as management pay climbs.", "headline_summary": "Crew advertised pay in Fond du Lac dropped to $26,106 against a stable $29,839 nationally, even as local General Manager pay rose to $60,152 and the metro unemployment rate held at a tight 3.2%.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Fond du Lac unemployment rate", "value": "3.2%", "context": "vs 4.1% national, 2.7-3.2% statewide range"}, {"label": "Metro job growth 2026", "value": "-50 jobs/month avg", "context": "Weakest since 2024; employment below 2019 level"}, {"label": "Crew advertised pay, metro vs national", "value": "$26,106 vs $29,839", "context": "Metro down significantly; national stable"}, {"label": "WI job openings vs unemployed gap", "value": "~93,000/month shortfall", "context": "2021-2025 average statewide structural gap"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Crew pay is falling locally while the national rate holds steady.", "body": "Fond du Lac's crew median advertised pay dropped significantly to $26,106, a notable divergence from the stable national figure of $29,839. This gap may suggest easing entry-level hiring urgency locally, but could also reflect reduced posting volume rather than a genuine softening in retention risk \u2014 worth distinguishing before adjusting entry wages downward."}, {"headline": "Management pay is pulling away from hourly roles.", "body": "Restaurant Manager/GM advertised pay rose to $60,152 locally, moderately ahead of the national median, even as Crew and Assistant Manager pay softened. Operators appear to be protecting leadership compensation even while trimming at the entry level, consistent with a strategy of stabilizing management bench strength amid a historically thin regional labor pool."}, {"headline": "Statewide job openings still outnumber unemployed workers by a wide margin.", "body": "Wisconsin has averaged roughly 93,000 more monthly job openings than unemployed workers in recent years, and the state's 3.2% August unemployment rate sits well below the 4.1% national figure. Structural scarcity like this means a soft local job-growth headline shouldn't be read as hiring getting easier \u2014 open positions still likely take longer to fill than headline unemployment suggests."}, {"headline": "Wisconsin's frozen wage floor pushes all FOH pay-setting onto competitive dynamics.", "body": "With the state minimum wage locked at $7.25 and tipped minimum at $2.33 since 2009, there's no legislative driver changing FOH labor costs this year, unlike Florida's climb to $15.00. Every dollar of FOH wage movement in Fond du Lac is a market signal, not a compliance requirement, making local server and crew postings a purer read on true labor tightness."}], "local_conditions": "Fond du Lac's labor market is cooling against a stagnant backdrop: the metro has shed an average of 50 jobs per month through 2026 and nonfarm employment remains below 2019 levels, even as the metro unemployment rate held at a tight 3.2% in August. That combination \u2014 thin labor supply alongside soft overall job growth \u2014 means restaurant operators are competing for a shrinking pool of available workers even though the broader economy isn't generating net new demand for labor.", "implications": "Crew-level advertised pay fell significantly locally ($26,106 median versus a stable national $29,839), even as General Manager pay rose moderately to $60,152 \u2014 a signal that operators are concentrating compensation investment at the management layer while entry-level wage competition has eased. With Wisconsin's $7.25 minimum wage and $2.33 tipped floor unchanged since 2009, FOH compensation is being set entirely by local market competition rather than policy, widening the gap between what operators pay versus what the law requires. Consider reviewing crew-level advertised pay against turnover data before assuming the softer posting trend reflects reduced competition for workers rather than reduced hiring volume.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether the metro's -50 jobs/month 2026 trend extends into Q4 or stabilizes; a continuation would suggest consumer traffic softness is beginning to show up in restaurant staffing decisions, not just manufacturing and trade."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "National accommodation and food service job openings fell from 916,000 to 673,000 through July \u2014 track whether Fond du Lac postings for Crew and Server roles continue softening in tandem, which would support planning for a less frantic Q4 hiring season."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "National Employment Cost Index data shows benefits costs up 3.8% year-over-year, outpacing wages. Operators budgeting 2027 total rewards should expect benefit cost growth to compress the dollars available for base-wage increases in hourly roles."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Wisconsin's 'The State of Working Wisconsin' report flags inflation eroding real wage gains statewide. If that dynamic persists into Q4, expect increased hourly-worker price sensitivity to advertised pay rates \u2014 a widening gap versus inflation could accelerate turnover even in a tight labor market."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31341.25, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 37836.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39000.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 37738.0, "metro_p50": 50414.2, "metro_p75": 56015.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 50960.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23920.0, "metro_p50": 26106.0, "metro_p75": 27053.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 29839.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28992.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 39494.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 36826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53542.0, "metro_p50": 60152.0, "metro_p75": 61500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 59618.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24336.0, "metro_p50": 30047.2, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 35012.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27040.0, "metro_p50": 32012.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 32731.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "fond-du-lac-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "pdf": "fond-du-lac-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:50:42.156392+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/fond-du-lac-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/fond-du-lac-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}