{"schema_version": 1, "id": "fond-du-lac-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 199, "label": "Fond du Lac, WI MSA", "slug": "fond-du-lac-wi-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:39:27.706380+00:00", "headline": "Fond du Lac unemployment falls, but job counts keep slipping.", "headline_summary": "Metro unemployment dropped to 2.6% in September even as the area averaged 50 monthly job losses through 2026, while electrician and HVAC advertised pay posted significant local gains outpacing the national trend.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "2.6%", "context": "Down from 3.2% in August 2026 (preliminary)"}, {"label": "Average monthly job change, 2026", "value": "-50 jobs/month", "context": "Among weakest job-growth metros in WI since 2006"}, {"label": "Wisconsin unemployment rate", "value": "3.2%", "context": "vs 4.1% national rate, Sept 2026"}, {"label": "WI labor force participation", "value": "64.9%", "context": "vs 61.8% national rate"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Falling unemployment masks a shrinking labor pool.", "body": "Metro unemployment dropped to 2.6% even as the area continues losing roughly 50 jobs a month, a combination more consistent with workers exiting the labor force than with job creation accelerating. Economic development messaging built solely on the unemployment rate risks overstating momentum."}, {"headline": "Skilled trades pay is pulling away from the national pace.", "body": "Electrician ($90,416) and HVAC technician ($79,040) advertised pay both show significant local gains that outstrip national increases, consistent with construction strength flagged in statewide data. That divergence signals where the metro's labor market is tight, distinct from sectors merely holding steady."}, {"headline": "Teacher pay decline stands out against a rising national trend.", "body": "Elementary/secondary teacher advertised pay fell significantly locally to $33,280 while the national median rose to $55,908, a gap that local economists and school boards should treat as a labor-supply signal for public education staffing capacity."}, {"headline": "Wage-vs-inflation math favors employers unevenly across roles.", "body": "Construction labor, electrician, and HVAC job ads, a signal of hiring demand (one ad often covers several openings), show significant local pay gains that likely outpace the 3.5% CPI benchmark cited in national data, while retail, delivery, and administrative roles show pay declines \u2014 meaning real purchasing power is diverging sharply across the metro's workforce."}], "local_conditions": "Fond du Lac's preliminary county unemployment rate fell from 3.7% to 2.8% between August and September, and the metro rate dropped from 3.2% to 2.6% \u2014 a sharper improvement than the statewide pattern, though all figures remain non-seasonally-adjusted and subject to revision. Underlying job counts tell a more complicated story: the metro has shed an average of 50 jobs per month through 2026, ranking among the weakest job-growth performers in the state even as the unemployment rate signals tightness, suggesting the drop reflects people leaving the labor force as much as new job creation.", "implications": "Falling unemployment alongside flat-to-negative payroll counts points to a labor pool that is shrinking, a dynamic that matters more for site-selection and expansion planning than for day-to-day staffing. Commerce leaders evaluating local investment should weigh that construction and skilled trades (electrician, HVAC) show significant advertised-pay growth locally, outpacing national gains, while sectors like elementary education and administrative work are seeing advertised pay decline \u2014 a divergence worth factoring into any assessment of the metro's workforce depth. Consider reviewing which sectors are driving the metro's wage divergence before citing the headline unemployment rate as uncomplicated good news.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Data to confirm", "body": "September's county and metro unemployment figures are preliminary and non-seasonally-adjusted; watch for BLS revisions in November and whether the 2.6% rate holds once seasonal adjustment is applied."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Continued monthly job losses alongside falling unemployment would reinforce a labor-force-exit story, a pattern commerce leaders should track before citing low unemployment as an expansion signal."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Statewide manufacturing employment is forecast 1.3% below October 2025 levels; given Fond du Lac's manufacturing base, local payroll data for October and November will show whether the metro is tracking or diverging from that statewide trend."}, {"category": "Policy-relevant signal", "body": "Wisconsin's labor force participation rate (64.9%) remains well above the national rate (61.8%), but widening racial disparities in unemployment statewide (7.2% Black vs 2.3% white in Q1) are a policy-relevant data point for workforce-development funding discussions."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 21848.0, "metro_p50": 27040.0, "metro_p75": 30226.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22880.0, "metro_p50": 28080.0, "metro_p75": 30160.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55120.0, "metro_p50": 70564.0, "metro_p75": 82853.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29530.5, "metro_p50": 31979.0, "metro_p75": 36414.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 60320.0, "metro_p75": 60320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62022.0, "metro_p50": 90416.4, "metro_p75": 91042.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35167.25, "metro_p50": 39535.4, "metro_p75": 44629.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34947.0, "metro_p50": 41099.0, "metro_p75": 42500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27826.0, "metro_p50": 34466.0, "metro_p75": 38376.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35525.0, "metro_p50": 42587.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34494.0, "metro_p50": 39910.0, "metro_p75": 43879.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54726.0, "metro_p50": 79040.0, "metro_p75": 88234.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 85878.0, "metro_p50": 97431.0, "metro_p75": 104000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 94734.0, "metro_p50": 121582.0, "metro_p75": 135461.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 90729.25, "metro_p50": 131337.0, "metro_p75": 145389.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50942.5, "metro_p50": 61452.0, "metro_p75": 62982.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 70048.0, "metro_p50": 79402.8, "metro_p75": 89900.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65589.0, "metro_p50": 76650.0, "metro_p75": 81645.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56047.0, "metro_p50": 60000.0, "metro_p75": 76650.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70000.0, "metro_p50": 85176.0, "metro_p75": 88005.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30787.75, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 37749.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54080.0, "metro_p50": 75000.0, "metro_p75": 80000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 66387.0, "metro_p50": 80000.0, "metro_p75": 85223.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 76502.0, "metro_p50": 91417.6, "metro_p75": 103251.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 62500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 64850.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 34315.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 43680.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 69127.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 46540.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 52000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 53902.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 33280.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 67193.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "Fond du Lac metro unemployment fell from 3.2% to 2.6% Aug-Sept 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics via USA Facts", "source_url": null, "statement": "Fond du Lac area averaged 50 job losses per month in 2026"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Wisconsin unemployment rate held at 3.2% vs national 4.1%"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Wisconsin labor force participation at 64.9% vs 61.8% national"}, {"source_name": "Wisconsin economic forecast data", "source_url": null, "statement": "Wisconsin manufacturing employment forecast 1.3% below Oct 2025 levels"}, {"source_name": "High Road Strategy Center", "source_url": null, "statement": "Wisconsin Black unemployment rate 7.2% vs 2.3% white rate, Q1 2026"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "fond-du-lac-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "fond-du-lac-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "fond-du-lac-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:22:01.862508+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/fond-du-lac-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/fond-du-lac-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}