{"schema_version": 1, "id": "fond-du-lac-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 199, "label": "Fond du Lac, WI MSA", "slug": "fond-du-lac-wi-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:39:18.383049+00:00", "headline": "Fond du Lac jobs shrink even as unemployment stays low", "headline_summary": "Fond du Lac MSA employment has fallen by an average of 50 jobs a month in 2026 and remains below 2019 levels, even as the metro's 3.2% unemployment rate stays well under the 4.2% national figure.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro monthly job change (2026 avg)", "value": "-50 jobs/month", "context": "vs +58/month average in 2025"}, {"label": "Fond du Lac unemployment rate", "value": "3.2%", "context": "vs 2.7% WI, 4.2% U.S. (Sept 2026)"}, {"label": "Metro employment vs. pre-pandemic", "value": "Below 2019 levels", "context": "Structural gap per WI DOR, Sept 2025"}, {"label": "Wisconsin statewide job loss since peak", "value": "-8,100 jobs", "context": "From Nov 2024 peak to July 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Metro job count is shrinking while the jobless rate looks fine.", "body": "Fond du Lac has averaged a 50-job-per-month decline in 2026, yet unemployment sits at 3.2% \u2014 a sign workers may be leaving the labor force or taking jobs outside the metro rather than evidence of a healthy, tight market. This combination deserves more scrutiny than the headline rate alone provides."}, {"headline": "Skilled trades pay is diverging sharply from the broader metro trend.", "body": "Electrician ($83,200) and HVAC technician ($79,040) advertised pay both posted significant local increases, outpacing national growth in the same roles. That signal is consistent with genuine capacity constraints in construction-adjacent trades even as manufacturing and trade-sector employment contracts."}, {"headline": "Office and administrative pay softness echoes the metro's structural drag.", "body": "Administrative assistant pay fell significantly locally ($39,902) while rising nationally, and accountant and business analyst pay dropped as well \u2014 a pattern that tracks the metro's broader underperformance relative to Wisconsin's record 2025 median wage. Local purchasing power in office-based roles is losing ground to both inflation and national peers."}, {"headline": "Wisconsin's statewide cooling is now visible at the metro level.", "body": "Wisconsin lost 8,100 jobs since its November 2024 peak, and Fond du Lac's employment remaining below 2019 levels suggests the metro is tracking \u2014 or leading \u2014 that statewide deceleration rather than bucking it. Commerce leaders should treat state-level stabilization claims cautiously until metro payroll data turns positive."}], "local_conditions": "Fond du Lac MSA employment has shed roughly 50 jobs per month on average through 2026, pushing nonfarm employment to 54.9 thousand in August and keeping the metro below its 2019 employment baseline even as the unemployment rate held at a still-low 3.2%. The softness is concentrated in trade, transportation, and manufacturing \u2014 mirroring statewide contraction in those sectors \u2014 while healthcare (SSM Health, ThedaCare presence) and skilled trades show advertised-pay strength that points to uneven, not uniform, local demand.", "implications": "Flat-to-declining headcount alongside a low unemployment rate signals a metro economy that is tightening on labor supply even as overall job growth stalls \u2014 a pattern consistent with a region approaching capacity constraints rather than one in clear expansion. For commerce leaders weighing local investment, the divergence between soft manufacturing/trade payrolls and strong advertised pay in electrician, HVAC, and nursing roles suggests expansion opportunities are sector-specific rather than metro-wide. Current conditions suggest economic development and chamber leadership evaluate sector-targeted support \u2014 skilled trades and healthcare capacity \u2014 rather than broad-based business attraction messaging this quarter.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether Fond du Lac's monthly job losses (averaging -50/month in 2026) narrow or deepen when September BLS data publishes in October; a third consecutive worsening month would mark a trend shift worth flagging publicly."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Wisconsin's wage-vs-inflation gap (4.2% forecast wage growth against 3.9% core CPI) is thin; any local inflation surprise could erase the modest real-wage gains manufacturing and trade workers are still seeing."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "National WARN filings naming Amazon, Meta, Oracle, and Tyson Foods have not yet shown a local Fond du Lac analog, but Wisconsin's 56 statewide WARN notices in 2026 warrant a check on whether regional manufacturing layoffs reach the metro's job boards."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Healthcare and skilled-trades pay growth (RN, electrician, HVAC) could either stabilize the metro's overall wage picture or simply widen the gap with declining white-collar and retail-adjacent roles \u2014 a split worth tracking in October's advertised-pay data."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22880.0, "metro_p50": 27040.0, "metro_p75": 30993.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22883.5, "metro_p50": 28080.0, "metro_p75": 30160.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35421.25, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55539.0, "metro_p50": 74880.0, "metro_p75": 85712.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27681.0, "metro_p50": 31595.0, "metro_p75": 35241.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36601.0, "metro_p50": 49920.0, "metro_p75": 60320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62022.0, "metro_p50": 83200.0, "metro_p75": 91042.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34353.5, "metro_p50": 40639.0, "metro_p75": 44629.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34947.0, "metro_p50": 41099.0, "metro_p75": 42500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27826.0, "metro_p50": 33955.0, "metro_p75": 38376.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35774.75, "metro_p50": 42640.0, "metro_p75": 45645.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34494.0, "metro_p50": 39901.6, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54726.0, "metro_p50": 79040.0, "metro_p75": 85935.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 85561.5, "metro_p50": 97351.0, "metro_p75": 104008.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 94347.5, "metro_p50": 112473.4, "metro_p75": 131157.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 89725.0, "metro_p50": 127700.0, "metro_p75": 141561.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53927.0, "metro_p50": 59649.4, "metro_p75": 61500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 68760.0, "metro_p50": 78614.8, "metro_p75": 89900.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62819.75, "metro_p50": 76650.0, "metro_p75": 88641.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 51517.5, "metro_p50": 56160.0, "metro_p75": 58287.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70157.0, "metro_p50": 82249.6, "metro_p75": 88005.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 40000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54080.0, "metro_p50": 75000.0, "metro_p75": 77794.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 41352.0, "metro_p50": 75109.6, "metro_p75": 84528.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 75007.0, "metro_p50": 79213.0, "metro_p75": 87740.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 62400.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 64850.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 34315.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 55120.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 70654.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 45857.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 50609.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 52856.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 33862.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 67872.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "fond-du-lac-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "fond-du-lac-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "fond-du-lac-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:50:41.914972+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/fond-du-lac-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/fond-du-lac-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}