{"schema_version": 1, "id": "florence-muscle-shoals-al-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 169, "label": "Florence-Muscle Shoals, AL MSA", "slug": "florence-muscle-shoals-al-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:39:13.042845+00:00", "headline": "Florence labor force shrinks as unemployment edges up to 3.9%.", "headline_summary": "Florence-Muscle Shoals unemployment rose to 3.9% in August from 3.4% a year ago while total employment fell to 66,544, even as nurse and teacher pay posted significant local gains.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "3.9%", "context": "Up from 3.4% in August 2025"}, {"label": "Metro employment level", "value": "66,544", "context": "Down from 67,567 a year earlier"}, {"label": "Alabama unemployment rate", "value": "3.4%", "context": "vs 4.1% national rate, August 2026"}, {"label": "County weekly wage gap", "value": "$198", "context": "Colbert $1,115 vs Lauderdale $917/week"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Metro unemployment climbs while the labor force shrinks.", "body": "Civilian employment fell from 67,567 to 66,544 year-over-year even as the unemployment rate rose to 3.9% from 3.4%, meaning fewer residents are working and fewer are actively job-seeking. That combination is harder to parse as healthy slack -- it is consistent with workers exiting the labor force rather than simply changing jobs."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing-linked pay is softening locally against a firming national trend.", "body": "HVAC technician and manufacturing production worker advertised pay both declined moderately-to-significantly in the metro while national figures for the same roles rose or held flat. Given manufacturing's role in county-level wage differentials (Colbert County's $1,115 average weekly wage versus Lauderdale's $917), this divergence may bear watching as an early signal for the metro's industrial base."}, {"headline": "Nursing and teaching pay are climbing even as broader conditions cool.", "body": "Registered nurse advertised pay rose significantly locally ($88,726) alongside teacher pay (also up significantly), tracking national increases in both occupations. Persistent wage growth in public-facing, credentialed service roles suggests these segments of the local economy remain structurally tight regardless of the broader softening."}, {"headline": "Construction labor pay bucks the local downturn entirely.", "body": "Construction laborer advertised pay rose significantly in the metro even as Alabama's statewide construction employment fell by 700 jobs in August. Localized infrastructure or project-specific demand may be driving this, distinct from the state's broader construction pullback -- a detail commerce leaders tracking building activity should flag for verification against permit data."}], "local_conditions": "Florence-Muscle Shoals unemployment rose to 3.9% in August 2026 from 3.4% a year earlier, even as the labor force shrank and total employment slipped from 67,567 to 66,544 -- a pattern consistent with Alabama's statewide softening rather than a local-only event. Advertised pay across manufacturing-adjacent roles (production workers, HVAC, electricians) moved lower locally even as national figures for the same roles rose or held steady, suggesting metro-specific softness layered on top of a cooling state and national backdrop.", "implications": "Divergence between local and national wage trends in manufacturing-linked trades (HVAC technicians down significantly locally while up nationally; production workers down locally against flat national figures) points to softer local demand in goods-producing sectors even as national data shows manufacturing adding jobs. Commerce leaders weighing expansion or facility investment should treat the metro's rising unemployment alongside a shrinking labor force as a signal of tightening -- not loosening -- local capacity, since fewer workers are both employed and actively counted in the labor force. Consider reviewing county-level detail (Lauderdale vs. Colbert) before drawing metro-wide conclusions, given the roughly $200 weekly wage gap between the two core counties.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Labor force participation in the metro warrants close tracking against Alabama's steady 79.5% prime-age rate; a continued decline in Florence-area employment without a corresponding unemployment spike would point to residents leaving the labor force rather than losing jobs outright."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "County-level wage divergence between Lauderdale and Colbert (a roughly $200 weekly wage gap) may widen or narrow depending on how manufacturing activity at employers like Southwire and Tarkett trends through year-end; commerce leaders should watch county-level data releases rather than relying on MSA-wide averages."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National WARN filings concentrated in manufacturing and logistics (per LayoffAlert.org tracking) have not yet shown a clear metro-specific echo, but Alabama's 25 statewide WARN notices in 2026 included manufacturing and logistics concentrations worth monitoring for any Shoals-area spillover."}, {"category": "Expected", "body": "October's state and metro releases (Alabama Department of Workforce) will show September data and should clarify whether the August unemployment uptick is a one-month blip or the start of a trend -- critical for distinguishing seasonal noise from genuine momentum loss."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 20312.25, "metro_p50": 24914.2, "metro_p75": 27500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 21840.0, "metro_p50": 24801.0, "metro_p75": 25175.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29971.0, "metro_p50": 34127.0, "metro_p75": 36181.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59285.75, "metro_p50": 80000.0, "metro_p75": 90000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29383.0, "metro_p50": 31165.0, "metro_p75": 32911.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29640.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 35620.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56265.75, "metro_p50": 68640.0, "metro_p75": 69842.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32082.0, "metro_p50": 33416.0, "metro_p75": 33945.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 18325.0, "metro_p50": 32223.0, "metro_p75": 33794.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24960.0, "metro_p50": 28846.0, "metro_p75": 30200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27455.25, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 36140.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30913.0, "metro_p50": 38978.0, "metro_p75": 44707.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 47514.0, "metro_p50": 63491.0, "metro_p75": 67600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 73930.5, "metro_p50": 88726.0, "metro_p75": 98896.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 105123.0, "metro_p50": 150463.0, "metro_p75": 163407.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 99196.0, "metro_p50": 139460.0, "metro_p75": 158334.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 40040.0, "metro_p50": 56620.0, "metro_p75": 58963.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 71895.0, "metro_p50": 92000.0, "metro_p75": 101712.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56702.0, "metro_p50": 56702.0, "metro_p75": 78335.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 43367.0, "metro_p50": 57285.0, "metro_p75": 69020.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 55900.0, "metro_p50": 71778.6, "metro_p75": 78593.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34144.0, "metro_p50": 55027.0, "metro_p75": 61278.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36452.25, "metro_p50": 60000.0, "metro_p75": 66500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 49567.75, "metro_p50": 58928.0, "metro_p75": 82500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 81235.0, "metro_p50": 97933.0, "metro_p75": 109998.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 54678.5, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 62482.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 33150.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 51671.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 39948.5, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 46415.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 52180.5, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 77809.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 28080.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 65136.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "florence-muscle-shoals-al-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "florence-muscle-shoals-al-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "florence-muscle-shoals-al-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:50:39.077962+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/florence-muscle-shoals-al-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/florence-muscle-shoals-al-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}