{"schema_version": 1, "id": "flint-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 206, "label": "Flint, MI MSA", "slug": "flint-mi-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:39:03.116486+00:00", "headline": "Flint outpaces Michigan's labor market, but gains stay narrow.", "headline_summary": "Flint MSA unemployment fell 1.4 points year over year to 5.5%, the best improvement of any Michigan metro, even as statewide manufacturing employment contracts and Michigan's overall unemployment sits at 5.0%.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Flint MSA unemployment rate", "value": "5.5%", "context": "Down 1.4 pts YoY, best among MI metros"}, {"label": "Flint MSA payroll job growth", "value": "+1.5% YoY", "context": "Strongest among Michigan metro areas"}, {"label": "Michigan statewide unemployment", "value": "5.0%", "context": "Up from 4.9% in July; 0.9 pts above U.S. rate"}, {"label": "Genesee County unemployed persons", "value": "10,300", "context": "Down 1,700 (-14.2%) year over year"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Flint is outperforming Michigan, not just keeping pace.", "body": "A 1.4-point annual drop in unemployment and the state's strongest metro payroll growth (1.5%) stand in contrast to Michigan's statewide workforce contraction of 0.5% in August. That divergence is consistent with localized resilience in manufacturing and logistics rather than a statewide turnaround, a distinction worth making to press and officials citing state-level headlines."}, {"headline": "Wage gains are concentrated, not broad-based.", "body": "Advertised pay rose moderately for warehouse/fulfillment associates, HVAC technicians, and registered nurses locally, while administrative, financial analyst, and business analyst postings show flat or declining pay. Momentum appears sector-specific \u2014 logistics and health services \u2014 rather than an economy-wide tightening of labor supply."}, {"headline": "State manufacturing losses have not yet reached Flint's numbers.", "body": "Michigan's cyclical sectors are projected to shed over 16,000 jobs in 2026 and statewide manufacturing posted its largest monthly employment decline in August, yet Flint's payroll growth has held up. Local economic planners should treat this as a lead indicator to monitor rather than a durable immunity, given the metro's historical manufacturing exposure."}, {"headline": "Falling local unemployed counts may mask a participation question.", "body": "Genesee County's unemployed population dropped 14.2% year over year, a genuinely positive signal, but statewide labor force participation is declining even as unemployment holds flat. Confirming whether Flint's improvement reflects more people working, versus fewer people counted as seeking work, matters for any claim about underlying labor market health."}], "local_conditions": "Flint MSA unemployment held at 5.5% seasonally adjusted in August, with Genesee County's unadjusted rate at 5.8% \u2014 unchanged from July but down 1.4 points from a year ago, the sharpest annual improvement of any Michigan metro region. Payroll job gains of 1.5% over the prior year, the strongest among Michigan metros, are running against a statewide backdrop of manufacturing softness and a 0.5% monthly contraction in Michigan's overall workforce, suggesting Flint's recovery is currently an outlier rather than a reflection of broader state momentum.", "implications": "Flint's improving unemployment trend and above-average payroll growth point to a local economy stabilizing faster than the state as a whole, which may support continued confidence in commercial investment and public infrastructure planning even as Michigan's manufacturing base contracts. Advertised pay gains in warehouse/fulfillment, HVAC, and registered nursing roles locally indicate selective tightness in logistics and health services rather than broad-based wage pressure, while flat-to-declining advertised pay in administrative, financial analyst, and business analyst roles signals softer demand in office-based functions. Commerce leaders and economic development officials should consider evaluating whether current momentum concentrates in a narrow set of sectors before treating it as a signal of metro-wide business climate improvement.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Michigan's cyclical sectors (manufacturing, construction) are projected to lose roughly 16,300 jobs in 2026 statewide. Watch whether Flint's above-average payroll growth, historically tied to assembly and manufacturing employment, begins to track that statewide contraction in the September-October data releases."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "September 2026 MSA-level unemployment and payroll figures have not yet been released as of this writing; the next Michigan DTMB update will show whether Flint's 1.5% year-over-year job gain advantage is holding or narrowing against other metros."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Michigan WARN filings for 2026 include a General Motors layoff notice affecting 350 workers in Lansing \u2014 not Flint directly, but indicative of continued auto-sector volatility in a region with deep GM supply-chain ties. Any Genesee County-specific WARN activity in the next filing cycle would be a meaningful signal."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "National wage growth has slowed to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation, eroding real purchasing power broadly; local advertised pay for several mid-wage roles (administrative, food service) is flat or declining. Consumer spending capacity in the local retail and services base is worth tracking as a secondary effect."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23770.75, "metro_p50": 28600.0, "metro_p75": 30638.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26155.75, "metro_p50": 29878.0, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30160.0, "metro_p50": 35054.0, "metro_p75": 36222.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58155.0, "metro_p50": 78000.0, "metro_p75": 92233.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30160.0, "metro_p50": 33540.0, "metro_p75": 41579.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34320.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58734.75, "metro_p50": 70304.0, "metro_p75": 77740.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31262.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31246.25, "metro_p50": 36374.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28371.75, "metro_p50": 29900.0, "metro_p75": 32240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33800.0, "metro_p50": 38480.0, "metro_p75": 40846.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32063.0, "metro_p50": 37752.0, "metro_p75": 39653.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57888.5, "metro_p50": 62569.0, "metro_p75": 65141.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 80463.0, "metro_p50": 96887.8, "metro_p75": 100765.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 105191.0, "metro_p50": 139693.6, "metro_p75": 166649.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 98800.0, "metro_p50": 133586.8, "metro_p75": 142145.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 49860.0, "metro_p50": 58739.0, "metro_p75": 65445.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65384.5, "metro_p50": 82669.4, "metro_p75": 88500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57734.0, "metro_p50": 63485.8, "metro_p75": 83727.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 47654.75, "metro_p50": 54104.2, "metro_p75": 57200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 61250.0, "metro_p50": 81693.0, "metro_p75": 90662.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38511.0, "metro_p50": 55000.0, "metro_p75": 59220.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54620.0, "metro_p50": 85262.8, "metro_p75": 96619.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 48388.0, "metro_p50": 65000.0, "metro_p75": 80378.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 71556.0, "metro_p50": 84932.6, "metro_p75": 111364.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 74849.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 72377.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 33634.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 56540.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 53293.5, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 51663.5, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 52000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 49920.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 31699.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 66370.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "flint-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "flint-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "flint-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:50:38.334342+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/flint-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/flint-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}