{"schema_version": 1, "id": "flagstaff-az-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 256, "label": "Flagstaff, AZ MSA", "slug": "flagstaff-az-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:36:19.353634+00:00", "headline": "Flagstaff's jobless rate falls as its workforce shrinks.", "headline_summary": "Coconino County unemployment eased to 5.0% in September even as the labor force fell 5,800 workers year-over-year, while government employment rose to 17,000 from 15,900 the prior month.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Flagstaff MSA unemployment rate", "value": "5.0%", "context": "Down from 5.9% in August; vs 4.2% national"}, {"label": "Coconino County labor force", "value": "72,555", "context": "Down 5.8K year-over-year"}, {"label": "Flagstaff MSA government employment", "value": "17,000", "context": "Up from 15,900 in August 2026"}, {"label": "Arizona labor force participation", "value": "59.9%", "context": "Down 7 straight months, -2.2 pts YoY"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Falling unemployment here reflects a shrinking workforce.", "body": "Coconino County's labor force dropped 5,800 year-over-year even as the jobless rate improved to 5.0% from 5.9%. A smaller denominator can lower the unemployment rate without any underlying gain in economic activity, a distinction press and economists should flag when the headline number alone gets quoted."}, {"headline": "Government employment is the metro's steadiest growth engine.", "body": "Public-sector jobs climbed from 15,900 to 17,000 between August and September, outpacing private-sector momentum. That stability echoes Arizona's statewide pattern of government adding 22,200 jobs even as construction and health care lost ground."}, {"headline": "Wage gains in skilled trades lag national trends.", "body": "Flagstaff electricians (Metro Median $63,424, down moderately) and HVAC technicians ($65,236, down significantly) are moving opposite the national direction, where both occupations show upward wage pressure. That divergence is consistent with softer local construction activity and warrants watching as a leading indicator of building-sector health."}, {"headline": "Healthcare wages keep climbing despite a thinner workforce.", "body": "Registered nurse pay rose to a metro median of $109,200, moving up even as the state reports health care job losses of 2,400. Rising pay alongside falling employment may suggest the sector is competing hard for a shrinking pool of qualified workers."}], "local_conditions": "Flagstaff's unemployment rate eased to 5.0% in September from 5.9% in August, yet the civilian labor force contracted by 5,800 workers year-over-year, pointing to a shrinking labor pool. Government employment rose to 17,000 in September from 15,900 in August, providing a counterweight to softness in construction and health care that mirrors statewide sector divergence.", "implications": "Labor force contraction alongside a falling unemployment rate suggests fewer people are available to work locally, and job creation has not accelerated \u2014 a distinction that matters for any commerce leader weighing a Flagstaff expansion against easier-to-staff metros. Government's employment gain, combined with the state's 22,200-job public-sector increase, signals a degree of public-sector stability that private employers in construction and health care currently lack. Current conditions suggest local economic development groups may want to track labor force participation alongside the headline unemployment rate when briefing prospective employers on workforce availability.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Coconino County's workforce board is preparing rapid-response plans for an estimated 130 anticipated layoffs concentrated in health care, construction, and manufacturing. Confirmation of timing or scale over the next 30-60 days would be a concrete test of how much of the WIOA plan's caution is materializing."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Labor force participation has now declined for seven straight months statewide; whether Flagstaff's local labor force stabilizes or continues contracting will shape how economic development officials pitch workforce availability to prospective employers."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Flagstaff's $18.35 minimum wage, the highest in Arizona with no tip credit, has been in effect since January. Watch whether retail and food service advertised pay \u2014 currently showing food service wages down significantly at $33,280 \u2014 stabilizes or continues diverging from the mandated floor."}, {"category": "Expected", "body": "Arizona's mining and government sectors are outperforming; local commerce leaders should watch whether the Flagstaff MSA's government employment gains (up to 17,000 in September) hold through year-end budget cycles, a question directly relevant to public-sector stability assessments."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28755.0, "metro_p50": 37938.0, "metro_p75": 40248.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30924.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36126.0, "metro_p50": 42640.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58375.5, "metro_p50": 83030.0, "metro_p75": 91000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32342.75, "metro_p50": 34821.0, "metro_p75": 38168.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39315.5, "metro_p50": 44335.0, "metro_p75": 44720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52390.0, "metro_p50": 63424.2, "metro_p75": 71423.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35145.0, "metro_p50": 39162.4, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35516.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28751.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 37574.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34883.75, "metro_p50": 44325.0, "metro_p75": 56005.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32440.25, "metro_p50": 40922.8, "metro_p75": 43331.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53366.5, "metro_p50": 65236.0, "metro_p75": 69809.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 90480.0, "metro_p50": 109200.0, "metro_p75": 119615.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 124123.25, "metro_p50": 130852.8, "metro_p75": 132820.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 98922.0, "metro_p50": 133627.0, "metro_p75": 149480.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56303.0, "metro_p50": 64511.0, "metro_p75": 71214.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 75000.0, "metro_p50": 95894.0, "metro_p75": 101623.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61953.0, "metro_p50": 69404.4, "metro_p75": 77500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 46800.0, "metro_p50": 60278.6, "metro_p75": 70780.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70257.0, "metro_p50": 100592.0, "metro_p75": 112476.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38613.5, "metro_p50": 52319.0, "metro_p75": 60641.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62493.0, "metro_p50": 91265.0, "metro_p75": 95282.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 48452.5, "metro_p50": 59500.0, "metro_p75": 64141.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 80609.0, "metro_p50": 97365.0, "metro_p75": 109117.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 64205.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 74943.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 41600.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 48880.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 51887.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 57533.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 47736.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 71760.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 38168.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 66112.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity", "source_url": null, "statement": "Flagstaff MSA unemployment rate fell to 5.0% in September from 5.9% in August"}, {"source_name": "Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity", "source_url": null, "statement": "Civilian labor force fell 5.8 thousand year-over-year in Coconino County"}, {"source_name": "Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity", "source_url": null, "statement": "Government employment in Flagstaff MSA rose to 17,000 in September from 15,900"}, {"source_name": "Coconino County Workforce Development Board", "source_url": null, "statement": "Rapid-response preparation for approximately 130 anticipated worker layoffs"}, {"source_name": "Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity / BLS", "source_url": null, "statement": "Arizona labor force participation declined seven consecutive months"}, {"source_name": "City of Flagstaff", "source_url": null, "statement": "Flagstaff minimum wage rose to $18.35/hour with tip credit eliminated"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "flagstaff-az-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "flagstaff-az-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "flagstaff-az-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:21:53.368735+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/flagstaff-az-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/flagstaff-az-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}