{"schema_version": 1, "id": "flagstaff-az-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 256, "label": "Flagstaff, AZ MSA", "slug": "flagstaff-az-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:38:58.788079+00:00", "headline": "Flagstaff unemployment outpaces Arizona as labor force shrinks.", "headline_summary": "Flagstaff metro unemployment reached 6.0% in June, above Arizona's 4.9% and the national 4.1%, even as warehouse and manufacturing pay rose sharply against the trend.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Flagstaff MSA unemployment rate", "value": "6.0%", "context": "June 2026, up from 4.9% a year earlier"}, {"label": "Metro labor force change", "value": "-5,200", "context": "12 months ending June 2026"}, {"label": "Arizona unemployment rate", "value": "4.9%", "context": "Third straight month at post-pandemic high"}, {"label": "National unemployment rate", "value": "4.1%", "context": "One-year low, August 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Flagstaff's labor market is cooling faster than Arizona's.", "body": "Metro unemployment hit 6.0% in June versus the state's 4.9%, a gap that did not exist a year ago when both hovered near 4.9%. That divergence suggests local-specific forces, not just statewide softness, are weighing on Coconino County employment."}, {"headline": "Labor force shrinkage, not just job loss, is driving the unemployment rise.", "body": "Civilian labor force fell 5,200 even as employment fell 5,800 over the year, meaning fewer residents are available to work, not simply fewer being hired. For commerce leaders, this points to a supply-side constraint on future expansion as much as a demand-side slowdown."}, {"headline": "Pay gains in logistics and manufacturing contradict the headline slowdown.", "body": "Warehouse/fulfillment pay rose to $42,640 and manufacturing assembler pay to $42,618, both significant increases and both above national medians. These pockets suggest selective tightness persists in goods-handling roles even as the broader labor market loosens."}, {"headline": "Public-sector and healthcare stability are cushioning the contraction statewide.", "body": "Arizona government employment rose 24,500 month-over-month in August and health care added 13,600 jobs year-over-year, a pattern likely echoed locally given Flagstaff's university and hospital anchor employers. That stability may be masking how much of the metro's private, tourism-linked economy is actually contracting."}], "local_conditions": "Flagstaff metro employment contracted by 5,800 jobs over the twelve months ending June 2026, with the civilian labor force shrinking by 5,200 as the unemployment rate climbed to 6.0% in June from 4.9% a year earlier, outpacing both the state's 4.9% and the national 4.1% rate. Contraction appears concentrated alongside a statewide pullback in professional and business services and tourism-linked activity, while public-sector and university-anchored employment provide a comparatively stable floor beneath an otherwise softening metro labor base.", "implications": "Flagstaff's unemployment rate rising faster than both state and national benchmarks suggests the metro is absorbing a sharper local slowdown than broader Arizona data implies, a signal commerce leaders should weigh against any plans tied to assumptions of steady regional growth. Advertised pay gains in warehouse/fulfillment ($42,640, up significantly) and manufacturing assembly roles ($42,618, up significantly) point to pockets of real momentum even as the headline labor force shrinks, suggesting the contraction is uneven rather than uniform across the local economy. Consider evaluating sector-specific momentum rather than treating the metro's overall unemployment trend as a single verdict on business climate.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Watch whether Coconino County's unemployment rate, last at 5.8% in July, continues climbing toward or past the metro's 6.0% June reading when August/September data releases. A third consecutive month above 5.5% would confirm a durable, not seasonal, downturn."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Arizona's labor force participation rate has declined for seven straight months; if Flagstaff's labor force keeps shrinking in tandem, it signals workforce exit rather than available slack, a distinct constraint for any business evaluating local expansion."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "National wage growth has slipped to 3.0%, its lowest since May 2021, while inflation runs at 3.4%; if that gap persists through fall, local consumer purchasing power softens further on top of an already contracting metro labor base."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Arizona's newly certified Workforce Pell Grant training programs in healthcare and transportation may begin feeding regional labor supply later this year; track whether Flagstaff institutions participate, given the metro's reliance on health care and logistics employment."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28645.0, "metro_p50": 38012.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31502.5, "metro_p50": 37648.0, "metro_p75": 39208.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36400.0, "metro_p50": 42640.0, "metro_p75": 42941.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57200.0, "metro_p50": 83215.0, "metro_p75": 91884.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32342.75, "metro_p50": 34465.6, "metro_p75": 37707.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36564.0, "metro_p50": 44335.0, "metro_p75": 44720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52000.0, "metro_p50": 64836.8, "metro_p75": 71425.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34701.0, "metro_p50": 42617.6, "metro_p75": 44720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35575.0, "metro_p50": 39350.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28751.0, "metro_p50": 34456.0, "metro_p75": 38168.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34628.5, "metro_p50": 43160.0, "metro_p75": 53067.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32357.75, "metro_p50": 40834.0, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50960.0, "metro_p50": 69809.0, "metro_p75": 81120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 90285.5, "metro_p50": 109527.0, "metro_p75": 119859.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 127277.0, "metro_p50": 150322.0, "metro_p75": 158600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 99151.0, "metro_p50": 136282.6, "metro_p75": 152647.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56928.75, "metro_p50": 65516.0, "metro_p75": 75029.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 75121.5, "metro_p50": 95894.0, "metro_p75": 101700.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61953.0, "metro_p50": 75000.0, "metro_p75": 91459.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 46677.0, "metro_p50": 60000.0, "metro_p75": 70000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70470.0, "metro_p50": 94006.6, "metro_p75": 111033.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 40103.25, "metro_p50": 54638.0, "metro_p75": 61320.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65702.75, "metro_p50": 91265.0, "metro_p75": 95402.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 49127.0, "metro_p50": 59600.0, "metro_p75": 61192.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 80764.0, "metro_p50": 97914.6, "metro_p75": 109817.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 59565.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 82143.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 42042.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 47000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 50700.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 58096.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 46000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 62281.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 38168.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 66950.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "flagstaff-az-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "flagstaff-az-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "flagstaff-az-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:50:37.059540+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/flagstaff-az-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/flagstaff-az-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}