{"schema_version": 1, "id": "fayetteville-springdale-rogers-ar-mo-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 181, "label": "Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO MSA", "slug": "fayetteville-springdale-rogers-ar-mo-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T06:29:21.830143+00:00", "headline": "Fayetteville labor stays tight while kitchen turnover drains the P&L.", "headline_summary": "Benton County unemployment sits at 2.9% and the metro lost 1,200 jobs in September after gaining 3,900 in August, while line cook turnover near 85-110% keeps replacement costs the dominant labor-cost story.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Benton County unemployment", "value": "2.9%", "context": "vs. 4.2% national, 3.9% Arkansas statewide"}, {"label": "Metro job change, September", "value": "-1,200", "context": "Reversal from +3,900 gain in August 2026"}, {"label": "Line cook/prep annual turnover", "value": "85-110%", "context": "7-month average tenure; ~$3,850 replacement cost"}, {"label": "Arkansas leisure & hospitality wage", "value": "$502/week", "context": "Lowest of any sector statewide, Aug. 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Kitchen turnover, not the minimum wage, drives Fayetteville labor costs.", "body": "Arkansas' $11 floor is frozen through 2027, but line cook/prep tenure averages just seven months with 85\u2013110% annual turnover and roughly $3,850 in replacement cost per departure. Labor cost pressure in this metro is structural retention math, not statutory wage inflation."}, {"headline": "Metro job volatility complicates Q4 staffing forecasts.", "body": "A 3,900-job gain in August reversed to a 1,200-job loss in September, even as Benton County unemployment held at 2.9%. Operators building holiday and game-day staffing plans should treat month-to-month metro job counts as noisy rather than trend-setting."}, {"headline": "Tipped-wage rule change widens regional pay fragmentation, but not here yet.", "body": "DOL's withdrawal of the federal 80/20 rule lets operators in Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi apply the $2.13 tipped wage more broadly for side work, while Flagstaff, AZ eliminated tipped wage entirely. Arkansas' $2.63 tipped cash wage and $8.37 tip credit remain unchanged, but multi-state operators should expect growing divergence in FOH total compensation design across markets."}, {"headline": "Server pay sits below national levels despite a tight local labor market.", "body": "Metro server median ($33,393) trails the national figure ($35,024) even as Benton County unemployment runs tighter than the national rate. University enrollment and game-day demand suggest advertised server pay in competitive Fayetteville venues likely runs above this blended median, making role-specific benchmarking more useful than metro averages here."}], "local_conditions": "Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers MSA unemployment held at 3.1% in August, with Benton County at 2.9% \u2014 among the tightest labor markets in Arkansas \u2014 even as the metro shed 1,200 jobs in September after a 3,900-job gain in August, a volatility pattern that complicates seasonal staffing forecasts. Leisure and hospitality statewide lost 1,900 jobs on seasonal decline, while University of Arkansas enrollment above 31,000 and Razorback football game-day traffic continue to generate sharp demand swings that outpace the region's thin labor supply.", "implications": "Tight Benton County unemployment (2.9%) combined with statewide restaurant turnover near 74% means operators are competing for the same limited pool of workers repeatedly, not just once at hire \u2014 replacement cost of $3,850\u2013$5,000 per hourly departure compounds faster here than in looser metros. Back-of-house wage floors ($15\u2013$19 for grill cooks) already sit well above the $11 state minimum and the $2.63 tipped cash wage, meaning labor-cost pressure is concentrated in kitchen retention rather than base-wage compliance. Consider evaluating whether retention investments \u2014 scheduling stability, cross-training pathways \u2014 for line cook and prep roles would reduce replacement spend more cost-effectively than incremental wage increases alone.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected", "body": "Holiday and basketball-season staffing demand will test a labor pool already constrained by 2.9% Benton County unemployment. Expect accelerated hiring timelines and higher reliance on referral or retention bonuses rather than reactive wage increases."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "September's 1,200-job metro loss follows an August gain of 3,900 \u2014 watch October/November BLS releases to determine whether this reflects seasonal leisure and hospitality softening or a broader slowdown affecting restaurant labor supply."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Federal withdrawal of the 80/20 tipped-wage rule is reshaping FOH compensation structures in Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi. Arkansas has not followed, but multi-unit operators with cross-state footprints should monitor whether similar guidance changes reach Arkansas DOL interpretation."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "BLS projects cooks to grow 12% nationally through 2035 versus 2% for waiters, a wage-pressure asymmetry already visible in the metro's $15\u2013$19 grill cook range against lower FOH entry pay. Watch whether BOH advertised pay continues pulling ahead of FOH in local postings."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26428.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 40364.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39211.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53400.0, "metro_p50": 56198.4, "metro_p75": 57681.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 50076.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22652.0, "metro_p50": 26807.0, "metro_p75": 27492.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 30066.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27899.0, "metro_p50": 32240.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 37421.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 47921.5, "metro_p50": 55000.0, "metro_p75": 60000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 59724.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27040.0, "metro_p50": 33393.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 35024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26994.0, "metro_p50": 30071.0, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics (FRED)", "source_url": null, "statement": "Benton County unemployment rate of 2.9% in August 2026"}, {"source_name": "USA Facts / BLS", "source_url": null, "statement": "Metro lost 1,200 jobs in September after gaining 3,900 in August"}, {"source_name": "Arkansas Restaurant Labor Market Research Notes", "source_url": null, "statement": "Grill cook pay range $15-$19/hr vs. $11 state minimum"}, {"source_name": "Industry turnover/replacement cost research", "source_url": null, "statement": "Line cook/prep turnover 85-110% with $3,850 replacement cost"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "DOL withdrawal of 80/20 tipped wage rule, state-level variation"}, {"source_name": "USA Facts", "source_url": null, "statement": "Arkansas leisure and hospitality average weekly wage of $502"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "fayetteville-springdale-rogers-ar-mo-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "pdf": "fayetteville-springdale-rogers-ar-mo-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:21:49.395154+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/fayetteville-springdale-rogers-ar-mo-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/fayetteville-springdale-rogers-ar-mo-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}