{"schema_version": 1, "id": "fayetteville-springdale-rogers-ar-mo-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 181, "label": "Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO MSA", "slug": "fayetteville-springdale-rogers-ar-mo-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:32:52.017635+00:00", "headline": "Fayetteville's tight labor market bypasses the frozen wage floor.", "headline_summary": "Metro unemployment sits at 2.9% and Benton County wages rose 10.4% year-over-year, even as Arkansas' $11.00 minimum wage and $2.63 tipped rate have stood unchanged since 2021.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "2.9%", "context": "vs 3.9% Arkansas, 4.1% U.S."}, {"label": "Benton County wage growth", "value": "10.4% YoY", "context": "Q4 2025, 2nd-fastest nationally"}, {"label": "Arkansas minimum wage", "value": "$11.00/hr", "context": "Unchanged since Jan 2021"}, {"label": "National food service openings", "value": "673,000", "context": "Down from 916,000 in Jan 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Front-of-house pay is rising while back-of-house softens.", "body": "Local Server pay moved up moderately to a $33,392 median while Line Cook pay fell to $31,720, nearly $5,000 below the national figure. Operators appear to be prioritizing tip-exposed, guest-facing roles in a 2.9% unemployment market, leaving kitchen staffing as the harder-to-model cost and retention risk."}, {"headline": "Arkansas' frozen minimum wage is becoming irrelevant to real competition.", "body": "The $11.00 floor and $2.63 tipped cash wage have not moved since 2021, but Benton County wages overall rose 10.4% year-over-year and restaurants in Fayetteville are reportedly guaranteeing well above legal minimums to fill shifts. Budgeting against the statutory wage rather than the metro's actual clearing wage risks chronic understaffing."}, {"headline": "National turnover relief may not reach this metro yet.", "body": "National accommodation and food service job openings fell from 916,000 to 673,000 through July, suggesting easing competition for workers in most markets. Fayetteville's 2.9% unemployment rate and 2.9% payroll growth run counter to that national loosening, meaning local operators should not assume the same retention tailwind."}, {"headline": "Management pay is flattening even as frontline roles tighten.", "body": "Restaurant Manager/GM pay held stable at $54,778 and Assistant Manager pay declined to $36,919, both below national medians, even as the broader metro labor market tightens. That gap may reflect management pipelines filling internally while hourly roles face the sharper external market pressure."}], "local_conditions": "Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers held a 2.9% unemployment rate in August, among the tightest in the nation, while the metro's nonfarm payrolls grew 2.9% year-over-year \u2014 the third-fastest pace of any U.S. metro \u2014 pulling restaurant hiring into direct competition with construction, retail, and logistics employers also expanding headcount. Benton County wages rose 10.4% year-over-year through Q4 2025 on a $1,653 average weekly wage that already exceeds the national figure, signaling that general labor-cost inflation in this metro is outrunning both the frozen $11.00 state minimum wage and national restaurant wage growth of roughly 2.5%.", "implications": "Metro-wide wage growth far outpacing the static state minimum means restaurants cannot treat the $11.00 floor and the $2.63 tipped cash wage as meaningful cost anchors \u2014 advertised Server pay locally is already up moderately to $33,392 while Line Cook and Assistant Manager postings have drifted down, suggesting operators are concentrating scarce wage budget on front-of-house roles where customer-facing turnover carries the highest revenue risk. With Leisure and Hospitality adding 6,200 jobs statewide year-over-year and a 2.9% unemployment rate leaving little slack, back-of-house recruiting faces the tightest competition without a wage floor forcing employers' hands. Consider reviewing back-of-house pay positioning against Benton County's broader wage acceleration rather than against the stagnant state minimum, particularly for line cook and prep roles where advertised pay has softened even as the general labor market tightens.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected", "body": "Q4 seasonal hiring typically accelerates restaurant staffing needs; with Arkansas unemployment at 3.9% and metro unemployment at 2.9%, watch whether candidate pools can absorb holiday-season demand without further wage escalation in front-of-house roles."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Benton County's wage growth (10.4% year-over-year) is being driven by sectors outside restaurants \u2014 watch whether Walmart, Tyson, and logistics wage gains continue pulling hourly workers away from food service into higher-paying adjacent industries."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National job openings in food service have fallen sharply since January, a pattern that has not yet shown up in this metro's tight 2.9% unemployment rate. A continued gap between national and local conditions would justify treating Fayetteville as a persistently tighter labor market than national benchmarks suggest."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Construction employment grew 4% locally against a national decline, a sign of continued competition for hourly, physically demanding labor that overlaps with back-of-house recruiting pools. Monitor whether construction wage gains force further back-of-house pay adjustments heading into 2027 budgeting season."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26428.0, "metro_p50": 36919.0, "metro_p75": 40088.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39000.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53400.0, "metro_p50": 55405.2, "metro_p75": 57342.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 50960.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22569.0, "metro_p50": 26642.0, "metro_p75": 27120.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 29839.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27678.0, "metro_p50": 31720.0, "metro_p75": 34320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 36826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 47500.0, "metro_p50": 54778.0, "metro_p75": 60000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 59618.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27571.5, "metro_p50": 33392.0, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 35012.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26918.0, "metro_p50": 30071.0, "metro_p75": 31217.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 32731.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "fayetteville-springdale-rogers-ar-mo-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "pdf": "fayetteville-springdale-rogers-ar-mo-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:50:34.247549+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/fayetteville-springdale-rogers-ar-mo-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/fayetteville-springdale-rogers-ar-mo-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}