{"schema_version": 1, "id": "fayetteville-springdale-rogers-ar-mo-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 181, "label": "Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO MSA", "slug": "fayetteville-springdale-rogers-ar-mo-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:35:32.617915+00:00", "headline": "Northwest Arkansas labor market stays tight despite a one-month wobble", "headline_summary": "Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers unemployment held at 3.1% in August even as the metro lost 1,200 jobs in September, while Benton County's 4.6% wage growth continues to outpace the state.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "3.1%", "context": "vs. 4.1-4.2% national rate, August 2026"}, {"label": "Metro job count change", "value": "-1,200", "context": "September 2026, after +3,900 in August"}, {"label": "Benton County wage growth", "value": "4.6%", "context": "Year-over-year, outpacing state average"}, {"label": "Arkansas labor force participation", "value": "59.1%", "context": "Up 0.2 pts year-over-year, record employment"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "September's job loss looks like noise.", "body": "A 1,200-job decline followed a 3,900-job gain in August, and the metro's 3.1% unemployment rate has not moved in tandem. Economic development planning should treat this as volatility within a tight labor market."}, {"headline": "Benton County is outrunning the rest of the state.", "body": "3.6% year-over-year employment growth and 4.6% wage growth in Benton County outpace both the Arkansas and national averages, concentrating momentum in the Rogers-Bentonville corridor. Commerce leaders in other parts of the metro may want to examine whether this growth is spilling into Washington County or remaining geographically contained."}, {"headline": "Construction strength bucks a national slowdown.", "body": "Northwest Arkansas added construction jobs between June 2025 and June 2026 while 195 other U.S. metros saw flat or declining construction employment. That divergence is consistent with continued regional building activity and infrastructure investment, a relevant signal for permitting offices and local planning bodies."}, {"headline": "Real wages are flat locally even as nominal pay rises.", "body": "Arkansas average weekly wages fell 0.7% year-over-year in nominal terms even as statewide wage withholding tax receipts grew 5.7%, pointing to uneven wage distribution across sectors. Household purchasing power in lower-wage sectors like leisure and hospitality ($502/week statewide) likely remains under more pressure than the county-level averages suggest."}], "local_conditions": "Northwest Arkansas posted a 3.1% metro unemployment rate in August against a 4.1-4.2% national rate, even as the Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers MSA shed 1,200 jobs in September after gaining 3,900 in August \u2014 a reversal that reads as volatility within a historically tight labor market. Benton County's 3.6% year-over-year employment growth and 4.6% average weekly wage increase, alongside continued construction-sector gains that bucked declines in 195 other U.S. metros, point to a local economy still absorbing growth even as national job creation concentrates in healthcare and manufacturing.", "implications": "Record labor force participation statewide (59.1%, up 0.2 points year-over-year) combined with sub-4% metro unemployment signals a local economy operating near capacity \u2014 a condition that favors continued business investment but leaves little slack to absorb a demand shock without wage or price pressure. Commerce leaders evaluating expansion or site-location decisions should weigh Benton County's above-average wage growth and household income ($93,506 median) against the metro's September job-count reversal, which has not yet shown up in the unemployment rate but bears watching for confirmation. Current conditions suggest monitoring the next two monthly job counts before treating September's dip as more than statistical noise.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Whether the Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers MSA's September job decline persists into October and November data, or reverts to the metro's five-year average of roughly 800 jobs added per month. A second consecutive monthly decline would warrant closer scrutiny from regional economic development bodies."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Job ads for construction and manufacturing roles, a signal of hiring demand (one ad often covers several openings), may offer an early read on whether Northwest Arkansas's construction-sector outperformance is sustaining into the fourth quarter or beginning to taper with seasonal patterns."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Federal labor force contraction tied to retirements and immigration policy is a documented national headwind; watch whether Fayetteville-area H-1B labor condition applications, up 29% in FY2026 Q1, continue climbing as a local offset to tightening labor supply."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Statewide wage withholding growth (5.7%) outpacing average weekly wage growth (-0.7%) suggests income gains are concentrated among higher earners or volatile across sectors. Commerce and workforce boards may want to track whether this divergence narrows as FY2026 closes."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24294.0, "metro_p50": 29120.0, "metro_p75": 34195.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24960.0, "metro_p50": 27040.0, "metro_p75": 28604.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29622.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55018.0, "metro_p50": 77561.2, "metro_p75": 90000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28306.0, "metro_p50": 31526.0, "metro_p75": 35439.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31359.5, "metro_p50": 35586.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59304.0, "metro_p50": 75000.0, "metro_p75": 83200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28926.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 35620.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 37101.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26160.0, "metro_p50": 27386.0, "metro_p75": 30325.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31343.0, "metro_p50": 36491.0, "metro_p75": 39000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31167.25, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 41522.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56252.75, "metro_p50": 65181.6, "metro_p75": 67600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 80500.0, "metro_p50": 92415.0, "metro_p75": 104703.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 130000.0, "metro_p50": 162000.0, "metro_p75": 165000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 89438.0, "metro_p50": 127259.0, "metro_p75": 138575.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54321.0, "metro_p50": 63367.0, "metro_p75": 71677.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67819.0, "metro_p50": 87733.6, "metro_p75": 89815.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45760.0, "metro_p50": 57630.6, "metro_p75": 60592.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48223.0, "metro_p50": 62500.0, "metro_p75": 77400.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 60059.0, "metro_p50": 76001.0, "metro_p75": 95000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30160.0, "metro_p50": 42311.8, "metro_p75": 50500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 68446.75, "metro_p50": 99815.8, "metro_p75": 116882.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 46547.5, "metro_p50": 60781.2, "metro_p75": 70032.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 69780.0, "metro_p50": 83146.0, "metro_p75": 89026.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 53443.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 75000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 85000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 63014.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 67173.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 57597.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 104728.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 53331.5, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 29863.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 65460.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "fayetteville-springdale-rogers-ar-mo-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "fayetteville-springdale-rogers-ar-mo-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "fayetteville-springdale-rogers-ar-mo-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:21:49.011699+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/fayetteville-springdale-rogers-ar-mo-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/fayetteville-springdale-rogers-ar-mo-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}