{"schema_version": 1, "id": "fayetteville-springdale-rogers-ar-mo-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 181, "label": "Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO MSA", "slug": "fayetteville-springdale-rogers-ar-mo-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:38:53.331496+00:00", "headline": "Northwest Arkansas defies the national hiring slowdown.", "headline_summary": "Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers posted the third-highest payroll growth rate among U.S. metros at 2.9% year-over-year and Benton County wages rose 10.4%, even as national job growth slowed to 29,000 in September and real wages fell behind inflation.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro payroll growth rank", "value": "3rd nationally", "context": "2.9% YoY vs. national 29,000 jobs added in Sept."}, {"label": "Benton County wage growth", "value": "10.4%", "context": "YoY through Q4 2025, 2nd-fastest nationally"}, {"label": "Washington/Benton unemployment", "value": "2.9%", "context": "vs. 4.1% U.S., 3.9% Arkansas statewide"}, {"label": "National wage-inflation gap", "value": "3.0% vs 3.4%", "context": "Wage growth lowest since May 2021; real wages negative"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Northwest Arkansas is outrunning the national slowdown, not following it.", "body": "National payrolls grew by only 29,000 in September with downward revisions to prior months, while this metro posted the third-highest payroll growth rate in the country at 2.9% year-over-year. That gap suggests local economic conditions should be read independently of national headlines this cycle."}, {"headline": "Benton County wage growth is outpacing inflation by a wide margin.", "body": "Benton County's 10.4% year-over-year wage growth through Q4 2025 and $1,653 average weekly wage both exceed national benchmarks, even as national real wages have turned negative against 3.4% inflation. Local purchasing power appears structurally stronger than the national wage-squeeze narrative would imply."}, {"headline": "Construction is the metro's clearest counter-cyclical signal.", "body": "Local construction employment rose 4% (18,600 to 19,400 jobs) over the past year while national construction activity softened, and advertised construction laborer pay nationally still outpaces the metro figure. Sustained local construction hiring is consistent with continued building and development activity across Northwest Arkansas even as national goods-producing sectors contract."}, {"headline": "Public-sector payroll growth looks stable, not shrinking.", "body": "Arkansas added 5,700 government jobs in August, the state's single largest sectoral gain, in contrast to the national pattern of a 216,000 government job decline over the past year. That divergence suggests Arkansas's public-sector employment base is not currently exposed to the federal workforce pressures showing up in national data."}], "local_conditions": "Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers continues to outperform national hiring trends by a wide margin, with nonfarm payroll growth of 2.9% year-over-year ranking third among all U.S. metros even as the national economy added just 29,000 jobs in September and revised prior months sharply downward. Local momentum is concentrated in construction, which added jobs against a declining national trend, and in Benton County, where wages rose 10.4% year-over-year through Q4 2025 and employment grew 3.6% \u2014 a pace of wage and job growth that stands apart from the national wage-inflation squeeze now showing up in federal data.", "implications": "Local economic conditions diverge meaningfully from the national headline \u2014 a cooling U.S. labor market with wages (3.0%) now trailing inflation (3.4%) has not yet reached Northwest Arkansas, where sub-3% unemployment and double-digit wage growth in Benton County point to a tighter, hotter local labor pool than most national commentary would suggest. Commerce leaders evaluating expansion or investment timing should weigh this gap directly: national caution on hiring and consumer spending may not translate locally given record labor force participation and construction sector strength. Consider benchmarking local business-climate decisions against metro-specific indicators rather than national headlines, which currently understate Northwest Arkansas's relative economic position.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "State labor force participation ticked down 0.1 points in August after steady 2023-2025 gains, which may signal the regional labor supply is approaching a ceiling. Watch whether Northwest Arkansas participation follows the same plateau, which would constrain further payroll growth regardless of demand."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "National WARN filings concentrated in Amazon, Meta, Verizon, Oracle, Tyson Foods, and Spirit Airlines bear watching locally given Tyson's Northwest Arkansas footprint, even absent any Arkansas-specific WARN disclosure requirement under state law. Any shift in Tyson's regional footprint would be a meaningful bellwether given the company's role as a metro economic anchor."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "National wage growth has fallen to its lowest annual rate since May 2021 (3.0%) against 3.4% inflation, a gap not yet visible in Benton County's wage data. Commerce leaders should watch whether that national wage-inflation divergence begins to narrow the metro's current advantage over the next one to two quarters."}, {"category": "Expected", "body": "Arkansas's fourth consecutive monthly unemployment decline (3.9% in August) and record labor force levels point to continued tightening through year-end, particularly in Washington and Benton counties, which already sit near 2.9%. Expect continued scrutiny of whether wage gains in construction and health services persist into Q4 reporting."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24955.5, "metro_p50": 29345.0, "metro_p75": 34717.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24960.0, "metro_p50": 27040.0, "metro_p75": 28080.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29489.0, "metro_p50": 34195.0, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53633.5, "metro_p50": 75400.0, "metro_p75": 88998.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27757.0, "metro_p50": 30808.0, "metro_p75": 35880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 35495.6, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59275.0, "metro_p50": 73424.0, "metro_p75": 83200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28165.0, "metro_p50": 33038.4, "metro_p75": 35444.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 37101.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26226.75, "metro_p50": 27560.0, "metro_p75": 30733.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 36300.0, "metro_p75": 38663.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30976.0, "metro_p50": 36663.6, "metro_p75": 40684.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56160.0, "metro_p50": 61973.8, "metro_p75": 66892.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 81283.5, "metro_p50": 96175.6, "metro_p75": 108759.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 127999.25, "metro_p50": 162000.0, "metro_p75": 165000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 90000.0, "metro_p50": 130000.0, "metro_p75": 136467.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54840.0, "metro_p50": 62299.2, "metro_p75": 70000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 68649.0, "metro_p50": 88642.0, "metro_p75": 90543.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46826.0, "metro_p50": 55576.8, "metro_p75": 60400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46215.5, "metro_p50": 62500.0, "metro_p75": 63775.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 60450.0, "metro_p50": 64000.0, "metro_p75": 76001.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31120.5, "metro_p50": 46025.6, "metro_p75": 52048.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63542.0, "metro_p50": 98223.0, "metro_p75": 114532.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 46082.5, "metro_p50": 54828.0, "metro_p75": 70032.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 69780.0, "metro_p50": 80557.4, "metro_p75": 86462.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 50353.5, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 73500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 80080.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 59065.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 66107.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 57597.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 102102.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 55803.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 29502.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 65461.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "fayetteville-springdale-rogers-ar-mo-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "fayetteville-springdale-rogers-ar-mo-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "fayetteville-springdale-rogers-ar-mo-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:50:33.865792+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/fayetteville-springdale-rogers-ar-mo-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/fayetteville-springdale-rogers-ar-mo-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}