{"schema_version": 1, "id": "fayetteville-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 191, "label": "Fayetteville, NC MSA", "slug": "fayetteville-nc-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:40:30.875260+00:00", "headline": "Fayetteville jobless rate falls as the labor pool shrinks.", "headline_summary": "Fayetteville's unemployment rate dropped to 4.6% even as the metro posted North Carolina's steepest employment decline at 1.2%, while local wages grew 3.9% \u2014 outpacing the state's 2.9% rate.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "4.6%", "context": "Down 0.6 pts YoY, Aug 2026"}, {"label": "Metro employment change", "value": "-1.2% YoY", "context": "Largest decline among NC metros, Q2 2026"}, {"label": "Cumberland County wage growth", "value": "3.9% YoY", "context": "vs 2.9% statewide, Q1 2026"}, {"label": "Labor force participation (mothers, under-6 children)", "value": "60.2%", "context": "vs 68.2% national, lowest in NC"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Fayetteville's jobless rate and job count are telling different stories.", "body": "Unemployment dropped 0.6 points year-over-year even as the metro logged North Carolina's steepest employment decline at 1.2%. That divergence is consistent with people leaving the labor force, a distinction that changes how the headline rate should be read locally."}, {"headline": "Wage growth outpacing the state signals tightening despite job losses.", "body": "Cumberland County's 3.9% year-over-year wage growth in Q1 beat the state's 2.9% figure, an unusual pairing with declining metro employment. Scarcer available labor appears to be the more defensible explanation."}, {"headline": "Fort Liberty's deployment cycle remains a structural labor-supply constraint.", "body": "Only 60.2% of Fayetteville mothers with children under six participate in the labor force, well below the 68.2% national rate and the lowest mark in North Carolina. That gap shapes the pool of available workers independent of broader economic cycles and deserves its own line in any workforce-availability conversation."}, {"headline": "Local pay gains in skilled trades diverge sharply from national trends.", "body": "Electrician advertised pay rose significantly locally while HVAC technician pay moved down moderately, even as the national HVAC figure rose. Sector-specific divergence like this suggests local project activity is driving these moves."}], "local_conditions": "Fayetteville's unemployment rate fell to 4.6% in August, a 0.6-point improvement from a year earlier, yet the metro posted the largest year-over-year employment decline among North Carolina's metros at 1.2% in Q2, a combination that reads as a shrinking labor pool. Labor force participation remains constrained by Fort Liberty deployment cycles \u2014 only 60.2% of local mothers with young children are in the labor force, the lowest rate in the state \u2014 even as Cumberland County's average weekly wage rose 3.9% year-over-year to $1,137, outpacing the state's 2.9% wage growth in the same period.", "implications": "Falling unemployment paired with shrinking local employment points to a labor supply constraint, which matters for economic development recruiters pitching the metro: available workers may be scarcer than the headline jobless rate implies. Commerce leaders evaluating expansion or relocation prospects should weigh participation constraints tied to military family dynamics alongside wage momentum that is currently outpacing the state average. Consider incorporating labor force participation trends alongside the unemployment rate into any public-facing economic development materials this quarter.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected release", "body": "NC Department of Commerce publishes October county and metro unemployment figures on November 20. That release will show whether Fayetteville's employment decline persisted into fall or began reversing."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Statewide labor force participation sits at 57.8%, well below its 61.6% ten-year high, and Fayetteville's participation constraints are more acute than the state average. Watch whether participation moves at all before assuming the metro's labor supply is loosening."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Manufacturing and professional/business services are weakening statewide, with the latter down 1,500 jobs in September. Any spillover into Cumberland County's base of logistics and administrative employers would compound the metro's existing employment softness."}, {"category": "Policy signal", "body": "North Carolina state employees are receiving 2.5% raises, with law enforcement and nurses up 10% and 5% respectively. Given Fayetteville's public-sector and military-adjacent employment base, these increases may show up in average weekly wage figures before they show up in job ads, a signal of hiring demand (one ad often covers several openings)."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22568.0, "metro_p50": 28080.0, "metro_p75": 31889.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22132.0, "metro_p50": 24960.0, "metro_p75": 27560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28895.0, "metro_p50": 31565.2, "metro_p75": 33834.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54988.0, "metro_p50": 71571.0, "metro_p75": 82500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27679.0, "metro_p50": 29566.0, "metro_p75": 32401.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30237.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55363.0, "metro_p50": 65614.8, "metro_p75": 70105.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30902.0, "metro_p50": 33113.0, "metro_p75": 34320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29872.0, "metro_p50": 35950.0, "metro_p75": 38157.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25480.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 38262.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30160.0, "metro_p50": 33618.0, "metro_p75": 35880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31979.0, "metro_p50": 37826.2, "metro_p75": 40733.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57200.0, "metro_p50": 69490.0, "metro_p75": 79240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 76698.0, "metro_p50": 93523.8, "metro_p75": 102396.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 94977.0, "metro_p50": 142400.0, "metro_p75": 157262.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 101165.0, "metro_p50": 133008.0, "metro_p75": 146792.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52797.0, "metro_p50": 65415.0, "metro_p75": 72661.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 80703.0, "metro_p50": 100000.0, "metro_p75": 107595.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54207.0, "metro_p50": 68418.0, "metro_p75": 83875.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43548.25, "metro_p50": 85513.0, "metro_p75": 103190.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 63945.0, "metro_p50": 89501.0, "metro_p75": 91024.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29120.0, "metro_p50": 46718.0, "metro_p75": 52944.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72422.0, "metro_p50": 111652.0, "metro_p75": 141090.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 51195.0, "metro_p50": 70000.0, "metro_p75": 82500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 84050.0, "metro_p50": 97766.4, "metro_p75": 111630.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 71744.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 109627.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 38303.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 65471.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 130277.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 80000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 101450.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 68305.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 28939.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 62374.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Fayetteville MSA unemployment rate 4.6% in August 2026, down 0.6 pts YoY"}, {"source_name": "DMJPS North Carolina Economic Report", "source_url": null, "statement": "Fayetteville posted largest employment decline among NC metros at 1.2% YoY in Q2 2026"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Cumberland County average weekly wage $1,137, up 3.9% YoY in Q1 2026"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Census Bureau / Fayetteville Chamber of Commerce analysis", "source_url": null, "statement": "60.2% labor force participation among Fayetteville mothers with children under 6, lowest in NC"}, {"source_name": "NC Department of Commerce", "source_url": null, "statement": "NC statewide labor force participation at 57.8% in September 2026, vs 61.6% ten-year high"}, {"source_name": "NC Office of State Budget and Management", "source_url": null, "statement": "NC state employees receiving 2.5% raises; law enforcement/nurses 10%/5%"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "fayetteville-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "fayetteville-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "fayetteville-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:21:46.656456+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/fayetteville-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/fayetteville-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}