{"schema_version": 1, "id": "fayetteville-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 191, "label": "Fayetteville, NC MSA", "slug": "fayetteville-nc-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:39:17.795768+00:00", "headline": "Fayetteville's jobless rate outpaces the state as wage gains split sharply.", "headline_summary": "Fayetteville metro unemployment near 4.9% sits well above North Carolina's 3.5% statewide rate, even as local Registered Nurse and Electrician pay post significant gains while CNA and CDL driver pay decline.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Fayetteville MSA unemployment rate", "value": "4.9%", "context": "vs 3.5% NC statewide, 4.1% U.S. national"}, {"label": "NC labor force participation", "value": "57.8%", "context": "Down 1.6 pts year-over-year, tied for 45th nationally"}, {"label": "Family-sustaining wage attainment, ages 25-44", "value": "43%", "context": "vs 52% suburban-area average, Cumberland County"}, {"label": "NC WARN notices, trailing 90 days", "value": "13 notices / 1,336 workers", "context": "Manufacturing, transport/logistics, healthcare hit hardest"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Metro unemployment gap versus the state keeps widening.", "body": "Fayetteville's roughly 4.9% rate sits well above North Carolina's 3.5% August reading, a divergence that has held for months rather than appearing as a one-month blip. Local economic development messaging should account for this gap rather than lean solely on statewide strength."}, {"headline": "Wage growth is uneven across the metro's own basket.", "body": "Registered Nurses (+significant) and Electricians (+significant) are seeing real local wage gains while CNAs/home health aides, HVAC technicians, and CDL truck drivers are seeing declines of moderate magnitude. This split suggests licensed/credentialed work is pulling away from broader frontline and trades pay locally, a pattern worth tracking for workforce-pipeline planning conversations with community colleges and technical schools."}, {"headline": "Public payroll stability is doing heavy lifting for the local economy.", "body": "With defense, county schools, and hospital systems as the three largest named employers in Cumberland County, the metro's economic floor depends disproportionately on public and quasi-public payrolls at a time when national government employment has been shedding jobs for a year. Any federal or state budget signal affecting Fort Liberty-area defense spending or public education funding carries outsized local weight."}, {"headline": "Family-sustaining wage gap points to a softer consumer base.", "body": "Only 43% of Cumberland County adults aged 25-44 earn a family-sustaining wage, below the 52% suburban-area average, consistent with the metro's below-national advertised pay across most roles in the basket. That gap is a relevant input for commerce leaders assessing local retail and services demand, separate from the question of labor supply."}], "local_conditions": "Fayetteville metro unemployment ran near 4.9% as of the most recent seasonally adjusted reading, roughly a point above North Carolina's 3.5% statewide rate and well above the state's long-run position below the national average, pointing to a local labor market that has softened faster than the state as a whole. Cumberland County's economy remains anchored by defense, public education, and hospital systems employment alongside a retail and food-service base that together leave average wages ($25.58-$27.96/hour range across sources) trailing both state and national benchmarks, even as sectors like healthcare and skilled trades post isolated wage gains.", "implications": "Softer local labor force participation combined with a wider wage gap against state and national figures suggests consumer purchasing power in the metro is more fragile than headline state job growth implies, a relevant signal for any organization gauging local spending capacity or site-selection economics. Public-sector anchors (military, county schools, hospital systems) continue to provide payroll stability even as private wage growth in lower-wage sectors like food service, retail cashier roles, and home health aides shows outright declines. Current conditions suggest commerce leaders should weigh the metro's below-average wage base as a cost advantage for labor-intensive expansion while recognizing it also signals constrained discretionary spending among a meaningful share of area households.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected data release", "body": "September 2026 BLS unemployment figures for the Fayetteville MSA are due in mid-October; watch whether the metro's gap against the 3.5% state rate narrows or widens, since recent months have trended toward widening."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "North Carolina logged 13 WARN notices affecting 1,336 workers in the past 90 days statewide, concentrated in manufacturing, transportation/logistics, and healthcare. Confirm whether any filings touch Cumberland County specifically, given the metro's reliance on healthcare and logistics employment."}, {"category": "Policy variable to monitor", "body": "Federal defense budget and installation-level spending decisions affecting the Fort Liberty area carry direct local economic weight given defense's position as the metro's largest employer category; near-term appropriations activity is worth tracking on its economic footprint alone, independent of policy debate."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Statewide labor force participation fell to 57.8%, down 1.6 points year-over-year and tied for 45th nationally; a local participation reading tracking that decline would reinforce the metro's below-state unemployment comparison as a labor-supply story rather than a pure demand story."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22293.75, "metro_p50": 27387.4, "metro_p75": 31720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22132.0, "metro_p50": 24670.4, "metro_p75": 27529.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28912.0, "metro_p50": 31720.0, "metro_p75": 33825.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54335.0, "metro_p50": 71571.0, "metro_p75": 80743.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27474.0, "metro_p50": 29508.0, "metro_p75": 31697.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30115.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55307.0, "metro_p50": 67292.6, "metro_p75": 70105.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30813.5, "metro_p50": 32924.8, "metro_p75": 33649.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30156.75, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 37987.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25706.0, "metro_p50": 32136.0, "metro_p75": 40851.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29834.0, "metro_p50": 32907.0, "metro_p75": 35070.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32240.0, "metro_p50": 38689.8, "metro_p75": 40733.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57978.0, "metro_p50": 70105.0, "metro_p75": 75536.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 77768.0, "metro_p50": 93629.0, "metro_p75": 102336.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 101221.5, "metro_p50": 142400.0, "metro_p75": 158181.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 97304.5, "metro_p50": 128967.6, "metro_p75": 141503.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52944.0, "metro_p50": 64896.2, "metro_p75": 72801.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 83087.0, "metro_p50": 105269.6, "metro_p75": 119221.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54207.0, "metro_p50": 68418.0, "metro_p75": 86625.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 44132.5, "metro_p50": 80892.0, "metro_p75": 88889.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 63665.0, "metro_p50": 83364.0, "metro_p75": 89625.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29346.0, "metro_p50": 47825.6, "metro_p75": 52177.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 73956.75, "metro_p50": 109966.8, "metro_p75": 135440.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 51195.0, "metro_p50": 59000.0, "metro_p75": 81142.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 83441.5, "metro_p50": 97795.6, "metro_p75": 109641.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 76545.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 111124.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 38396.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 64198.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 131145.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 85369.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 103536.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 71046.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 29237.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 67273.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "fayetteville-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "fayetteville-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "fayetteville-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:50:32.155835+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/fayetteville-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/fayetteville-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}