{"schema_version": 1, "id": "farmington-nm-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 248, "label": "Farmington, NM MSA", "slug": "farmington-nm-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:39:12.435942+00:00", "headline": "Farmington's job losses outpace state and nation as energy base shrinks.", "headline_summary": "Farmington MSA employment fell 2.5% year-over-year with unemployment near 4.8%, well above New Mexico's 4.7% and the national 4.2%, as the metro's mining and oil-and-gas base continues a multi-year structural decline from 8.4% to 6.8% of total employment.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Farmington MSA employment change", "value": "-2.5% YoY", "context": "vs. -0.4% statewide, +0.2% national payroll growth"}, {"label": "Farmington-area unemployment rate", "value": "~4.8%", "context": "vs. 4.7% New Mexico, 4.2% U.S. national"}, {"label": "Mining/oil & gas share of metro jobs", "value": "6.8%", "context": "Down from 8.4% in 2019, structural decline"}, {"label": "National wage growth vs. inflation", "value": "3.0% vs 3.4%", "context": "Real wages now lagging inflation nationally"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Farmington's job losses are outpacing the state and nation.", "body": "Metro nonfarm employment fell 2.5% year-over-year as of the most recent county data, compared with New Mexico's near-flat statewide job growth and national payroll gains of 29,000 in September. That gap signals a locally concentrated drag, not a regional or national cyclical pattern."}, {"headline": "Energy-sector structural decline, not a cyclical downturn, explains the softness.", "body": "Mining and oil and gas fell from 8.4% to 6.8% of metro employment between 2019 and 2023, a multi-year structural shift rather than a sudden shock. Economic development planning should treat this as a long-run diversification question, not a temporary dip awaiting recovery."}, {"headline": "Retail footprint is still expanding even as the labor market cools.", "body": "7 Brew Coffee's October 2025 opening suggests consumer-facing investment continues locally despite rising unemployment and job losses elsewhere in the base. Retail and food-service advertised pay in the metro (Food Service Worker up moderately, Warehouse/Fulfillment up moderately) is consistent with pockets of continued demand amid broader softness."}, {"headline": "Wage data lag makes real-time reads on local purchasing power difficult.", "body": "Statewide average weekly wages rose 2.7% to 8.1% depending on the reference quarter, but no September-specific wage-versus-inflation figure exists for the metro, and national real wages are no longer outpacing inflation (3.0% wage growth against 3.4% inflation). Commerce and policy leaders should treat local wage trend claims cautiously until county-level Q3 figures are released."}], "local_conditions": "Farmington MSA employment contracted 2.5% year-over-year through the most recent county-level readings, with the unemployment rate drifting to roughly 4.8%, a steeper erosion than the statewide 4.7% rate and well above the national 4.2%. Structural decline in oil and gas and mining employment \u2014 now 6.8% of metro jobs versus 8.4% in 2019 \u2014 continues to weigh on the base, even as pockets of retail and service investment, such as 7 Brew Coffee's October 2025 opening, point to continued consumer-facing activity.", "implications": "Divergence between a contracting metro job base and still-functioning consumer retail activity suggests San Juan County's economy is being reshaped by energy-sector structural decline rather than a broad cyclical downturn, a distinction that matters for how commerce leaders frame business-investment decisions locally. Public-sector stability and healthcare/education hiring nationally and statewide offer a partial offset to energy-driven softness, but the metro's employment decline has outpaced both state and national trends, meaning local economic development messaging should account for sector-specific headwinds rather than assume uniform conditions. Current conditions suggest commerce leaders evaluate expansion or investment decisions sector-by-sector, distinguishing energy-exposed segments from more resilient service and healthcare activity.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected release", "body": "September county-level unemployment and payroll figures for San Juan County are due from the NM Department of Workforce Solutions around October 15-20. This will be the first full read on whether the 2.5% year-over-year employment decline accelerated or stabilized into Q3."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Statewide public-sector employment fell 1,000 jobs year-over-year through March 2026, with state officials citing federal employment cuts as a contributing factor. Whether this pattern extends into San Juan County's public payroll, a historically stabilizing employer base in the metro, bears monitoring."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National WARN filings remain below year-ago levels (163,273 affected workers in 2026 versus 261,814 in 2025), and New Mexico has recorded only 5 notices statewide year-to-date. A single large notice in San Juan County, given its smaller labor base, would carry outsized local signal value."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "New Mexico's civilian labor force has contracted from 982,400 in February to roughly 969,800 more recently, a participation decline distinct from job-loss dynamics. If this pattern holds locally, it would complicate any read of a stabilizing unemployment rate as genuine labor market strengthening."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25057.75, "metro_p50": 28265.0, "metro_p75": 31560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27242.0, "metro_p50": 28266.0, "metro_p75": 29850.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32985.75, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52169.5, "metro_p50": 72740.0, "metro_p75": 89557.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31002.0, "metro_p50": 33894.2, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31720.0, "metro_p50": 36073.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61608.0, "metro_p50": 72800.0, "metro_p75": 78000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29726.0, "metro_p50": 42728.4, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29555.0, "metro_p50": 32400.8, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30864.75, "metro_p50": 37554.0, "metro_p75": 37668.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32511.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 43836.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 39247.0, "metro_p75": 46204.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62112.5, "metro_p50": 68640.0, "metro_p75": 68640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 85491.0, "metro_p50": 109740.0, "metro_p75": 117280.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 114426.0, "metro_p50": 132000.0, "metro_p75": 134145.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 99248.0, "metro_p50": 144707.8, "metro_p75": 159248.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52765.5, "metro_p50": 61558.2, "metro_p75": 65268.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 72669.5, "metro_p50": 93376.0, "metro_p75": 102804.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 49690.0, "metro_p50": 71929.2, "metro_p75": 83180.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 43369.0, "metro_p50": 57290.0, "metro_p75": 70334.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70000.0, "metro_p50": 76916.4, "metro_p75": 90070.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46989.0, "metro_p50": 58639.0, "metro_p75": 67565.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 42032.0, "metro_p50": 59280.0, "metro_p75": 68750.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 49567.75, "metro_p50": 55229.2, "metro_p75": 56160.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 82858.0, "metro_p50": 98344.4, "metro_p75": 110528.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 64021.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 94000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 37185.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 62867.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 38480.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 49323.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 94320.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 108496.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 33862.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 68991.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "farmington-nm-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "farmington-nm-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "farmington-nm-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:50:30.740144+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/farmington-nm-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/farmington-nm-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}