Farmington's job losses outpace state and nation as energy base shrinks.
-2.5% YoY
Farmington MSA employment change
vs. -0.4% statewide, +0.2% national payroll growth
~4.8%
Farmington-area unemployment rate
vs. 4.7% New Mexico, 4.2% U.S. national
6.8%
Mining/oil & gas share of metro jobs
Down from 8.4% in 2019, structural decline
3.0% vs 3.4%
National wage growth vs. inflation
Real wages now lagging inflation nationally
This Month's Takeaways
01
Farmington's job losses are outpacing the state and nation.
Metro nonfarm employment fell 2.5% year-over-year as of the most recent county data, compared with New Mexico's near-flat statewide job growth and national payroll gains of 29,000 in September. That gap signals a locally concentrated drag, not a regional or national cyclical pattern.
02
Energy-sector structural decline, not a cyclical downturn, explains the softness.
Mining and oil and gas fell from 8.4% to 6.8% of metro employment between 2019 and 2023, a multi-year structural shift rather than a sudden shock. Economic development planning should treat this as a long-run diversification question, not a temporary dip awaiting recovery.
03
Retail footprint is still expanding even as the labor market cools.
7 Brew Coffee's October 2025 opening suggests consumer-facing investment continues locally despite rising unemployment and job losses elsewhere in the base. Retail and food-service advertised pay in the metro (Food Service Worker up moderately, Warehouse/Fulfillment up moderately) is consistent with pockets of continued demand amid broader softness.
04
Wage data lag makes real-time reads on local purchasing power difficult.
Statewide average weekly wages rose 2.7% to 8.1% depending on the reference quarter, but no September-specific wage-versus-inflation figure exists for the metro, and national real wages are no longer outpacing inflation (3.0% wage growth against 3.4% inflation). Commerce and policy leaders should treat local wage trend claims cautiously until county-level Q3 figures are released.
Local Economic Conditions
Farmington MSA employment contracted 2.5% year-over-year through the most recent county-level readings, with the unemployment rate drifting to roughly 4.8%, a steeper erosion than the statewide 4.7% rate and well above the national 4.2%. Structural decline in oil and gas and mining employment — now 6.8% of metro jobs versus 8.4% in 2019 — continues to weigh on the base, even as pockets of retail and service investment, such as 7 Brew Coffee's October 2025 opening, point to continued consumer-facing activity.
Open Threads in the Data
Divergence between a contracting metro job base and still-functioning consumer retail activity suggests San Juan County's economy is being reshaped by energy-sector structural decline rather than a broad cyclical downturn, a distinction that matters for how commerce leaders frame business-investment decisions locally. Public-sector stability and healthcare/education hiring nationally and statewide offer a partial offset to energy-driven softness, but the metro's employment decline has outpaced both state and national trends, meaning local economic development messaging should account for sector-specific headwinds rather than assume uniform conditions. Current conditions suggest commerce leaders evaluate expansion or investment decisions sector-by-sector, distinguishing energy-exposed segments from more resilient service and healthcare activity.
Advertised Pay Indicators · WageScape Benchmark 25 Jobs
Job postings data for the Farmington, NM MSA metro — median advertised pay, its recent trend, and the number of active postings behind each figure. Jobs are grouped for readability and are not the same as the 10 sector classifications on the next page. For additional job detail contact WageScape.
Retail Trade
| Retail Sales Associate |
$28,265 |
→ Stable |
512 |
| Retail Cashier |
$28,266 |
↓ Moderate decline |
198 |
Transportation & Warehousing
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate |
$39,520 |
↑ Moderate increase |
74 |
| CDL Truck Driver |
$72,740 |
→ Stable |
519 |
| Delivery Driver |
$33,894 |
↓ Significant decline |
402 |
| Warehouse Manager |
— |
Limited local postings |
— |
Construction
| Construction Laborer |
$36,073 |
↑ Significant increase |
29 |
Construction/Skilled Trades
| Electrician |
$72,800 |
→ Stable |
81 |
| HVAC Technician |
$68,640 |
↑ Significant increase |
19 |
Manufacturing
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler |
$42,728 |
↑ Significant increase |
67 |
Cross-Sector
| Customer Service Representative |
$32,401 |
↓ Significant decline |
92 |
| Operations Manager |
$76,916 |
↑ Significant increase |
9 |
Leisure & Hospitality
| Food Service Worker |
$37,554 |
↑ Moderate increase |
24 |
Healthcare
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide |
$37,440 |
↓ Significant decline |
195 |
| Registered Nurse |
$109,740 |
↑ Significant increase |
1,996 |
Admin/Office Support
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk |
$39,247 |
↓ Moderate decline |
126 |
Information/Technology
| Software Engineer |
$132,000 |
→ Stable |
34 |
| Data Engineer |
$144,708 |
↑ Moderate increase |
3,532 |
Professional & Business Services
| Accountant |
$61,558 |
↓ Moderate decline |
27 |
| HR Generalist/Manager |
$71,929 |
↑ Significant increase |
773 |
| Marketing Specialist |
$57,290 |
→ Stable |
921 |
| Business Analyst |
$98,344 |
↑ Moderate increase |
2,572 |
Finance & Insurance
| Financial Analyst |
$93,376 |
→ Stable |
1,306 |
Government/Education
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher |
$58,639 |
→ Stable |
477 |
Cross-Sector Sales
| Account Manager |
$59,280 |
↓ Significant decline |
55 |
Industry Snapshot · Farmington, NM MSA
Advertised pay and job-posting trends across the whole metro economy, rolled up by employer industry — not just the bellwether roles above.
| Sector |
Median Pay Change |
Job Postings Change |
| Construction |
↑ +31.9% |
↑ +220.4% |
| Manufacturing |
↓ −6.8% |
↑ +189.0% |
| Retail Trade |
↑ +10.9% |
↑ +98.2% |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities |
↑ +61.2% |
↑ +361.5% |
| Information |
↓ −10.0% |
↑ +30.0% |
| Financial Activities |
↓ −13.9% |
↑ +104.8% |
| Professional & Business Services |
↑ +27.7% |
↑ +168.3% |
| Education & Health Services |
↑ +46.4% |
↑ +110.3% |
| Leisure & Hospitality |
↓ −12.0% |
↑ +50.5% |
| Government |
↑ +103.2% |
↑ +1176.2% |
Looking Ahead · Next 30–60 Days
Expected release
September county-level unemployment and payroll figures for San Juan County are due from the NM Department of Workforce Solutions around October 15-20. This will be the first full read on whether the 2.5% year-over-year employment decline accelerated or stabilized into Q3.
Worth watching
Statewide public-sector employment fell 1,000 jobs year-over-year through March 2026, with state officials citing federal employment cuts as a contributing factor. Whether this pattern extends into San Juan County's public payroll, a historically stabilizing employer base in the metro, bears monitoring.
Potential inflection point
National WARN filings remain below year-ago levels (163,273 affected workers in 2026 versus 261,814 in 2025), and New Mexico has recorded only 5 notices statewide year-to-date. A single large notice in San Juan County, given its smaller labor base, would carry outsized local signal value.
Emerging pressure point
New Mexico's civilian labor force has contracted from 982,400 in February to roughly 969,800 more recently, a participation decline distinct from job-loss dynamics. If this pattern holds locally, it would complicate any read of a stabilizing unemployment rate as genuine labor market strengthening.
Sources & Methodology
Pay and hiring data provided by WageScape. See every source cited in this report, with links →
Advertised pay reflects the pay ranges employers publish in active job postings in this metro, not survey or payroll data. Pay trends compare the current period with the prior period for the same metro and role. Sector figures group postings by the employer's industry classification; sectors with limited classified postings are marked as such rather than estimated. This briefing is independent of, and complements, official statistics from the BLS and state labor market information offices.
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