{"schema_version": 1, "id": "fargo-nd-mn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 240, "label": "Fargo, ND-MN MSA", "slug": "fargo-nd-mn-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:38:29.862106+00:00", "headline": "Fargo's labor market stays tight while wages stall", "headline_summary": "Fargo-area unemployment near 2.6% and over 12,000 statewide job openings point to sustained labor scarcity, even as North Dakota's average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% year-over-year and labor force participation slipped to 69.3%.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Fargo MSA unemployment rate", "value": "2.6%", "context": "vs. 4.1% national rate, July 2026"}, {"label": "ND statewide open positions", "value": "12,435", "context": "against ~4,000 new jobs created annually statewide"}, {"label": "ND labor force participation", "value": "69.3%", "context": "down from 69.9% a year earlier, not seasonally adjusted"}, {"label": "ND average hourly earnings growth", "value": "0.1%", "context": "vs. 4.1% national year-over-year wage growth"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Tight labor market has not produced broad wage acceleration.", "body": "North Dakota's statewide average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% year-over-year even as the state ranks second nationally in labor force participation and posts 12,000-plus open positions. Scarcity is evident in vacancy counts, with a consistent local pay response still pending, which is relevant to how economic development officials frame the metro's competitiveness."}, {"headline": "Skilled trades and finance roles are pulling away from frontline pay.", "body": "Electrician pay rose significantly locally ($83,718) while HVAC Technician pay fell significantly ($70,165) and Customer Service Representative pay declined moderately, a split that suggests employers are prioritizing pay growth where technical complexity or project backlog is highest. This divergence is a useful read on local economic health alongside any single average wage figure."}, {"headline": "Labor force participation decline deserves more attention than the unemployment rate.", "body": "North Dakota's participation rate, not seasonally adjusted, fell to 69.3% from 69.9% over the past year even as unemployment stayed near historic lows. A shrinking labor pool alongside low unemployment is consistent with a supply-constrained economy, a distinction that matters for workforce and population-growth policy discussions."}, {"headline": "Healthcare's job-ad volume signals demand, not open-position counts.", "body": "Healthcare accounts for roughly 3,737 of North Dakota's 12,435 reported open positions, with job ads concentrated in nursing, behavioral health and allied-health roles, a signal of hiring demand (one ad often covers several openings). Registered Nurse advertised pay in Fargo ($86,944) trails the national median ($102,252) by a wide margin, a gap economic developers may want to track as a factor in health-sector recruitment capacity regionally."}], "local_conditions": "Fargo's unemployment rate held near 2.6-2.8% through mid-2026 against a national rate of 4.1%, with roughly 4,000 online job postings concentrated in health care and agriculture pointing to sustained labor demand despite a slowing national pace of hiring. Statewide labor force participation slipped to 69.3% from 69.9% a year earlier even as North Dakota recorded over 12,000 open positions, a divergence that suggests the metro's tight conditions reflect labor supply constraints as much as economic expansion.", "implications": "Metro wage data shows uneven momentum \u2014 Financial Analyst and Business Analyst pay posted significant gains while Customer Service Representative and HVAC Technician pay declined, indicating employers are concentrating pay growth in roles tied to operational and financial complexity. Commerce leaders weighing local investment or expansion should read the low unemployment rate alongside flat-to-declining advertised pay in several frontline categories as a signal that labor scarcity so far coexists with contained wage growth in those categories, a combination that favors firms able to compete on job quality and advancement opportunities. Current conditions suggest reviewing sector-specific pay trends before assuming the metro's tight labor market will uniformly raise the cost of doing business.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Governor Armstrong's new Department of Workforce Development, led by Katie Ralston Howe, is expected to shape state-level workforce policy responses over the next two months. Commerce and government leaders should watch for program details that could affect regional labor supply strategy, particularly in healthcare and trades."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Private-sector employment in North Dakota grew 1,800 jobs year-over-year in September while government employment shed 600, a divergence worth monitoring for what it signals about public-sector stability in a state where government has historically been a steady employer."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "National WARN Act filings have surged past 340,000 affected workers through late October, concentrated in technology and information sectors, with North Dakota recording zero new WARN filings in the past 90 days. Continued national layoff activity alongside a quiet local filing record would reinforce Fargo's relative insulation from the broader labor market cooling."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Real wage erosion is now a national pattern, with median weekly earnings up 1.5% against 3.5% CPI growth, while North Dakota's wage growth ranks 49th among states. Should this gap persist, consumer spending power in the metro could soften even as employment stays strong, a dynamic worth tracking in local retail and services activity."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27162.0, "metro_p50": 32884.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26342.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 32281.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34917.5, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56160.0, "metro_p50": 80805.6, "metro_p75": 91000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28755.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 44000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37185.75, "metro_p50": 44720.0, "metro_p75": 47281.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67929.0, "metro_p50": 83718.0, "metro_p75": 99840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38691.5, "metro_p50": 46166.0, "metro_p75": 49000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32240.0, "metro_p50": 36419.0, "metro_p75": 37137.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29879.0, "metro_p50": 35568.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35627.0, "metro_p50": 39317.8, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39437.5, "metro_p50": 44720.0, "metro_p75": 49056.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62400.0, "metro_p50": 70165.4, "metro_p75": 75000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 74970.5, "metro_p50": 86944.0, "metro_p75": 99372.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 95883.0, "metro_p50": 128343.6, "metro_p75": 152656.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 85502.0, "metro_p50": 85607.0, "metro_p75": 93114.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56577.0, "metro_p50": 63206.0, "metro_p75": 72072.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 71273.0, "metro_p50": 83334.0, "metro_p75": 84649.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57500.0, "metro_p50": 62653.0, "metro_p75": 66261.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 40630.75, "metro_p50": 52499.0, "metro_p75": 54731.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 77001.25, "metro_p50": 91033.6, "metro_p75": 92500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33218.0, "metro_p50": 41970.0, "metro_p75": 54987.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 64751.75, "metro_p50": 80580.4, "metro_p75": 100000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": null, "metro_p25": null, "metro_p50": null, "metro_p75": null, "metro_trend_direction": null, "metro_trend_magnitude": null, "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58644.0, "metro_p50": 79797.0, "metro_p75": 92599.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 65000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 64278.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 38563.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 55008.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 99300.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 60680.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 62576.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 60903.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 35360.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 67133.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Fargo MSA unemployment rate at 2.6% in July 2026"}, {"source_name": "Job Service North Dakota", "source_url": null, "statement": "North Dakota has over 12,000 open positions statewide"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "ND labor force participation fell to 69.3% from 69.9% year-over-year"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "North Dakota average hourly earnings rose 0.1% year-over-year"}, {"source_name": "State of North Dakota", "source_url": null, "statement": "Governor Armstrong created Department of Workforce Development led by Katie Ralston Howe"}, {"source_name": "LayoffAlert / WARN Act Tracker", "source_url": null, "statement": "National WARN filings affected 340,316 employees through Oct. 26, 2026"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "fargo-nd-mn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "fargo-nd-mn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "fargo-nd-mn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:21:41.802099+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/fargo-nd-mn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/fargo-nd-mn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}