{"schema_version": 1, "id": "fairbanks-ak-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 162, "label": "Fairbanks, AK MSA", "slug": "fairbanks-ak-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:39:03.374948+00:00", "headline": "Fairbanks labor market stays tight as national hiring cools.", "headline_summary": "Fairbanks unemployment held at 3.1% against a national rate of 4.2% and just 29,000 U.S. jobs added in September, even as local construction and electrician pay posted significant gains.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Fairbanks unemployment rate", "value": "3.1%", "context": "vs 3.8% Alaska, 4.2% U.S. national"}, {"label": "U.S. nonfarm payroll growth", "value": "29,000", "context": "September 2026, below 45k 12-mo average"}, {"label": "Alaska federal job loss", "value": "-4.5%", "context": "2025, direct exposure via Fort Wainwright"}, {"label": "National wage vs inflation gap", "value": "3.0% vs 3.4%", "context": "Wage growth now trailing CPI nationally"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Fairbanks labor conditions run tighter than state and national trends.", "body": "A 3.1% unemployment rate compares favorably to Alaska's 3.8% and the nation's 4.2%, even as U.S. job growth slowed to 29,000 in September. Local economic momentum appears more resilient than statewide federal workforce contractions would suggest."}, {"headline": "Construction and trades pay gains defy Alaska's statewide sector pullback.", "body": "Alaska construction employment fell 700 jobs statewide in 2026, yet Fairbanks construction laborer pay rose significantly to $62,400 and electrician pay climbed to $88,300. This divergence may suggest Fort Wainwright-related infrastructure or UAF capital projects are sustaining local trades demand against the statewide grain."}, {"headline": "Finance and office-role pay softness bears watching locally.", "body": "Financial analyst and administrative assistant advertised pay both declined moderately to significantly in Fairbanks even as accountant pay rose sharply \u2014 a mixed signal within the same white-collar segment. Consistent with national financial-activities softness, this may reflect selective restructuring rather than broad office-sector retreat."}, {"headline": "Federal employment exposure remains the metro's key vulnerability.", "body": "Alaska lost 4.5% of federal jobs in 2025 and federal payrolls remain down statewide, a direct risk given Fort Wainwright's outsized local footprint. Fairbanks's low unemployment rate has so far absorbed this pressure, but continued federal contraction is the clearest threat to current momentum."}], "local_conditions": "Fairbanks MSA unemployment held at 3.1%, the tightest reading in the state alongside Anchorage, as the University of Alaska Fairbanks and Fort Wainwright continue to anchor service, construction, and administrative employment even as national hiring slowed sharply in September. Local advertised pay in construction, electrical trades, and accounting posted significant year-over-year gains \u2014 a pattern that diverges from Alaska's statewide construction employment decline and points to Fairbanks-specific demand rather than a broader state trend.", "implications": "Fairbanks sits in a different cycle than the nation: national payroll growth cooled to 29,000 in September with wage growth falling behind inflation, while Fairbanks's 3.1% unemployment and rising advertised pay in construction, electrician, and accountant roles point to localized tightness rather than cooling. Commerce leaders weighing local expansion or investment should treat the metro's labor conditions as structurally tighter than national headlines suggest, while government economists should watch whether Fort Wainwright and UAF payrolls \u2014 both exposed to federal budget dynamics \u2014 continue to anchor demand against Alaska's statewide federal job losses. Consider evaluating local investment timelines against Fairbanks-specific wage and vacancy signals rather than national cooling narratives, which may understate local conditions.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National payroll growth has slowed to 29,000 with downward revisions to July and August; watch whether this national cooling begins showing up in Fairbanks job postings data, which has so far decoupled from the national trend."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Statewide federal job losses of 4.5% in 2025 have not yet visibly dented Fairbanks employment, given Fort Wainwright's scale. Any federal budget or base-level staffing news over the next two months would be a direct test of the metro's resilience."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Alaska's minimum wage path (now $14, rising to $15 in July 2027) continues phasing in; watch for effects on Fairbanks retail and food-service advertised pay, where wages have been comparatively flat versus trades and professional roles."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Software engineer pay in Fairbanks fell significantly even as data engineer pay rose \u2014 a split worth monitoring as a leading signal of which professional segments are gaining real local traction versus losing ground to remote/national competition."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29120.0, "metro_p50": 40260.0, "metro_p75": 50563.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29436.0, "metro_p50": 34603.0, "metro_p75": 36619.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35510.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57200.0, "metro_p50": 68640.0, "metro_p75": 74256.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33506.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45760.0, "metro_p50": 62400.0, "metro_p75": 62400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 85113.0, "metro_p50": 88300.0, "metro_p75": 93600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 37986.8, "metro_p75": 38808.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 41691.8, "metro_p75": 43160.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34722.0, "metro_p50": 41090.0, "metro_p75": 44366.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38980.0, "metro_p50": 42058.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38167.0, "metro_p50": 46515.0, "metro_p75": 49837.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 71180.0, "metro_p50": 85113.0, "metro_p75": 85114.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 94001.0, "metro_p50": 108378.0, "metro_p75": 121029.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 110691.5, "metro_p50": 121716.0, "metro_p75": 125150.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 99221.0, "metro_p50": 144272.8, "metro_p75": 159248.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 69356.0, "metro_p50": 90084.0, "metro_p75": 100000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 73186.5, "metro_p50": 95049.0, "metro_p75": 100231.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61114.5, "metro_p50": 69103.8, "metro_p75": 79878.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 68021.5, "metro_p50": 74880.0, "metro_p75": 76440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 73195.0, "metro_p50": 73956.0, "metro_p75": 84420.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46448.75, "metro_p50": 70259.2, "metro_p75": 76920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61779.5, "metro_p50": 82530.0, "metro_p75": 82653.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 45691.25, "metro_p50": 48404.8, "metro_p75": 49567.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 82624.0, "metro_p50": 97501.0, "metro_p75": 110043.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 64264.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 89099.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 39985.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 43680.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 57630.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 53040.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 63490.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 61722.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 40894.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 93157.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "fairbanks-ak-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "fairbanks-ak-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "fairbanks-ak-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:50:28.114628+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/fairbanks-ak-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/fairbanks-ak-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}