{"schema_version": 1, "id": "evansville-in-ky-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 154, "label": "Evansville, IN-KY MSA", "slug": "evansville-in-ky-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T06:27:10.711698+00:00", "headline": "Evansville wages climb as employment quietly contracts.", "headline_summary": "Vanderburgh County wages rose 2.9% year-over-year even as employment fell 0.5%, while local Line Cook pay slipped to $31,200 against a national median of $37,421.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "3.6%", "context": "Up from 3.4% in August; vs 4.2% national"}, {"label": "Vanderburgh County wage growth", "value": "2.9%", "context": "Weekly wages reached $1,188, Q1 2026 YoY"}, {"label": "Vanderburgh County employment change", "value": "-0.5%", "context": "YoY decline despite wage growth, Q1 2026"}, {"label": "Line Cook advertised pay, metro vs national", "value": "$31,200 vs $37,421", "context": "Metro down moderately; national stable"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Local Line Cook pay is drifting below the national line.", "body": "Metro median sits at $31,200 versus $37,421 nationally, a moderate decline even as BLS projects 12% national growth in cook demand through 2035. A widening gap on a structurally scarce role invites turnover exactly where kitchens can least absorb it."}, {"headline": "Shift Manager pay is the one role moving up locally.", "body": "Metro Shift Manager pay rose moderately to $30,843, within range of the national $33,024 median. Upward movement in a supervisory, retention-critical role may signal operators are paying to keep mid-level staff who absorb training and compliance burden amid high turnover elsewhere."}, {"headline": "Federal 80/20 rule repeal changes the side-work wage math.", "body": "DOL's October withdrawal of the 80/20 tipped-wage threshold means Indiana operators can now pay the $2.13 tipped rate for cleaning and stocking duties without the prior 20% cap, using tips to reach the $7.25 floor. That lowers direct wage exposure for front-of-house labor during slow shifts, but only where tip volume reliably covers the gap."}, {"headline": "Falling county employment with rising wages is a scarcity signal.", "body": "Vanderburgh County employment declined 0.5% year-over-year while average weekly wages rose 2.9%, consistent with a shrinking available workforce amid steady demand. Restaurants competing for the same pool as manufacturing and logistics may need to benchmark against those sectors' wage trajectories alongside other restaurants."}], "local_conditions": "Evansville-area unemployment ticked up to 3.6% in September from 3.4% in August, a modest softening even as the MSA stays well below the national 4.2% rate and continues to run on a historically tight labor pool. Vanderburgh County wages rose 2.9% year-over-year to $1,188 weekly even as county employment slipped 0.5%, a combination suggesting employers are paying more to hold fewer workers as they pull back on expanding headcount.", "implications": "Metro-level softening alongside continued wage growth points to a labor market where restaurant operators face less competition for entry-level applicants than a year ago, but little relief on cost per hire given national turnover near 80% and 70% of operators citing hard-to-fill roles. Line Cook advertised pay in Evansville has moved down moderately to $31,200 against a national median holding at $37,421, a gap that may reflect softer local back-of-house demand but also risks under-pricing a role BLS projects to grow 12% through 2035. Consider reviewing Line Cook pay positioning against regional peers before the gap becomes a retention liability heading into any seasonal volume increase.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether Evansville's unemployment uptick to 3.6% persists in the October release due late this month; a continued rise could ease entry-level sourcing pressure for Crew and Server roles for the first time in over a year."}, {"category": "Policy shift to monitor", "body": "Indiana has not adopted the 80/20 rule repeal into state guidance explicitly, but federal withdrawal gives operators cover to restructure tipped-role duties now. Track whether competitors adjust side-work assignments and whether effective FOH take-home pay shifts as a result."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Indiana's roughly 104,500 undocumented workers represent meaningful exposure in entry-level food service; any enforcement escalation would hit back-of-house staffing in Evansville disproportionately given regional reliance on this labor pool."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Line Cook pay's moderate local decline against a stable national trend is unusual; confirm whether this reflects fewer competing job ads, a signal of hiring demand (one ad often covers several openings), or an actual softening in kitchen wage demand before adjusting starting offers downward."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27040.0, "metro_p50": 35686.0, "metro_p75": 40561.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39211.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 42640.0, "metro_p75": 53662.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 50076.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23920.0, "metro_p50": 27040.0, "metro_p75": 27955.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 30066.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28362.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 37421.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 44430.75, "metro_p50": 52487.2, "metro_p75": 55000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 59724.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27040.0, "metro_p50": 30357.4, "metro_p75": 33800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 35024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26580.0, "metro_p50": 30843.0, "metro_p75": 32864.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics / Indiana Department of Workforce Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "Evansville MSA unemployment rate rose to 3.6% in September 2026 from 3.4% in August"}, {"source_name": "BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages", "source_url": null, "statement": "Vanderburgh County wages rose 2.9% YoY to $1,188 weekly while employment fell 0.5%"}, {"source_name": "National Restaurant Association", "source_url": null, "statement": "Restaurant turnover near 80% annually, up from pre-pandemic 72%"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Outlook", "source_url": null, "statement": "BLS projects cooks to grow 12% from 2025-2035 versus 2% for waiters"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "DOL withdrew the 80/20 tipped-wage rule in October 2026"}, {"source_name": "Indiana restaurant labor market research", "source_url": null, "statement": "Indiana hosts approximately 104,500 undocumented workers, many in food service"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "evansville-in-ky-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "pdf": "evansville-in-ky-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:21:37.703622+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/evansville-in-ky-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/evansville-in-ky-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}