{"schema_version": 1, "id": "eugene-springfield-or-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 232, "label": "Eugene-Springfield, OR MSA", "slug": "eugene-springfield-or-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:38:48.656510+00:00", "headline": "Eugene's jobless rate looks stable \u2014 payrolls tell a different story.", "headline_summary": "Lane County unemployment held at 5.1% in August, but nonfarm payrolls declined over the year even as the labor force grew, while average weekly wages of $1,177 continue trailing the national $1,459 figure by nearly a fifth.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Lane County unemployment rate", "value": "5.1%", "context": "Essentially flat vs 5.2% a year ago"}, {"label": "Lane County avg weekly wage", "value": "$1,177", "context": "vs national average of $1,459 (Q3 2025)"}, {"label": "Oregon 12-month payroll change", "value": "-16,100 jobs", "context": "Oregon ranks 48th nationally for payroll growth"}, {"label": "National wage growth vs inflation", "value": "3.0% vs 3.4%", "context": "First sustained real-wage decline in two years"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Stable unemployment is hiding a shrinking job base.", "body": "Lane County's 5.1% rate looks steady year over year, but nonfarm payrolls actually declined over the same period while the labor force grew by hundreds of workers. That combination signals more job seekers chasing a static number of positions, a softer condition than the headline rate alone suggests."}, {"headline": "Health care remains the metro's only consistent growth engine.", "body": "Health care and social assistance added roughly 1,300 jobs locally since 2019 and continues posting monthly gains even as professional services and manufacturing contract. Area wage data showing Certified Nursing Assistant pay up moderately to $52,596 reinforces that this sector is absorbing a disproportionate share of local economic activity."}, {"headline": "Lane County's wage gap with the nation is widening, not closing.", "body": "Average weekly wages of $1,177 trail the national figure of $1,459 by roughly 19%, and local management pay runs about $12 an hour below national levels. That gap matters less as a workforce statistic and more as a signal of relative regional purchasing power and competitiveness for outside investment."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing's two-year slide continues to weigh on the broader mix.", "body": "Oregon manufacturing has shed 14,600 jobs statewide over two years, and Lane County's own job losses in late 2025 and into 2026 track that pattern. A metro once anchored partly by manufacturing is increasingly dependent on health care and government stability to hold its employment base steady."}], "local_conditions": "Lane County's unemployment rate held at 5.1% in August, essentially unchanged from a year ago, while total nonfarm payroll employment slipped over the same period even as the local labor force continued to grow \u2014 a pattern consistent with what Oregon economists statewide are calling a \"low-hire, low-fire\" stall rather than contraction. Health care and financial services continue to carry the metro's job growth, while administrative support, retail, and manufacturing remain well below pre-pandemic employment levels, leaving the area's industry mix more concentrated in service and care work than it was five years ago.", "implications": "Flat payrolls alongside a growing labor force point to an economy absorbing new workers without adding net jobs, which typically shows up locally as softer retail traffic, slower commercial leasing decisions, and more cautious capital investment by area businesses. For commerce leaders, the widening wage gap between Lane County's $1,177 average weekly wage and the national $1,459 figure is less a hiring issue than a regional purchasing-power and competitiveness question, particularly as it relates to attracting outside investment and retaining spending within the local economy. Current conditions suggest monitoring sector-level payroll data as closely as the headline unemployment rate, since a stable jobless rate can mask structural shifts already under way beneath it.\n\n", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected release", "body": "Oregon Employment Department publishes September county-level data on October 14. Watch whether Lane County's payroll decline extends a third consecutive month or stabilizes, which would clarify whether this is a plateau or a longer slide."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Statewide personal income tax withholding was revised sharply upward for 2026, suggesting wages and employment may be outperforming survey-based estimates. If that materializes locally, it would be a meaningful upside counter-signal to the flat payroll trend."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Oregon WARN notices remain historically low (six-month average of 261), but national WARN activity involving large employers like Amazon and Meta suggests continued volatility elsewhere. Any spillover into Eugene-area logistics or distribution operations would be an early test of local resilience."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National wage growth has slipped to 3.0%, below 3.4% inflation, marking the first sustained real-wage decline in two years. If that national trend persists into Lane County data, it would compound an already wide local-to-national wage gap and merits close tracking for its effect on local consumer spending."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28806.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31115.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 34320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34113.25, "metro_p50": 38480.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60761.75, "metro_p50": 77142.0, "metro_p75": 85428.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30604.0, "metro_p50": 33957.0, "metro_p75": 39780.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39520.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 44720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63742.0, "metro_p50": 89624.6, "metro_p75": 91780.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32344.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 42120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32038.0, "metro_p50": 37824.8, "metro_p75": 40601.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45760.0, "metro_p50": 52596.0, "metro_p75": 56625.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38480.0, "metro_p50": 45227.6, "metro_p75": 47840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72800.0, "metro_p50": 75920.0, "metro_p75": 81120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 91650.0, "metro_p50": 111229.0, "metro_p75": 119600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 91214.0, "metro_p50": 156258.6, "metro_p75": 170000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 78964.0, "metro_p50": 101806.4, "metro_p75": 137212.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60284.5, "metro_p50": 71500.0, "metro_p75": 79649.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 88281.0, "metro_p50": 95878.0, "metro_p75": 97397.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58144.75, "metro_p50": 69000.0, "metro_p75": 85000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46450.5, "metro_p50": 54440.0, "metro_p75": 65520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 73495.0, "metro_p50": 84271.0, "metro_p75": 95505.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 62646.4, "metro_p75": 71797.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67912.0, "metro_p50": 91356.0, "metro_p75": 112459.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 62370.0, "metro_p50": 79475.2, "metro_p75": 109959.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62732.5, "metro_p50": 83932.2, "metro_p75": 95464.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 56173.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 44096.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 40558.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 64005.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 56426.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 52002.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 68666.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 55850.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 34434.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 67587.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "eugene-springfield-or-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "eugene-springfield-or-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "eugene-springfield-or-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:50:25.193838+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/eugene-springfield-or-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/eugene-springfield-or-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}