{"schema_version": 1, "id": "erie-pa-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 161, "label": "Erie, PA MSA", "slug": "erie-pa-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:32:48.183900+00:00", "headline": "Erie servers gain ground as kitchen and management pay soften.", "headline_summary": "Erie server pay rose to a $30,646 median while line cook pay fell to $32,254 and assistant manager pay dropped to $34,606, even as national restaurant job openings fell from 916,000 to 673,000 this year.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Erie MSA unemployment rate", "value": "4.2%", "context": "vs 4.1% national, 4.1% Pennsylvania"}, {"label": "National restaurant job openings", "value": "673,000", "context": "down from 916,000 in January 2026"}, {"label": "PA minimum wage (frozen)", "value": "$7.25/hr", "context": "unchanged 17 years; tipped wage $2.83"}, {"label": "Restaurant sector job additions (national)", "value": "10,800 (Sept)", "context": "down from 33,800 in August"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Erie's BOH pay is softening while FOH pay climbs.", "body": "Line cook advertised pay fell moderately to $32,254 and assistant manager pay dropped significantly to $34,606, while server pay rose to $30,646. Operators may be unintentionally widening the compensation gap between kitchen and dining room roles at a moment when kitchen turnover is typically harder to absorb."}, {"headline": "National hiring cooldown may be reaching Erie's restaurant labor pool.", "body": "Accommodation and food services job openings nationally dropped from 916,000 to 673,000 between January and July 2026, and Erie's flat payroll growth is consistent with reduced competition for entry-level labor. Current conditions suggest crew and shift manager roles may be easier to fill through year-end than in prior hiring cycles."}, {"headline": "Management pay compression threatens the promotion pipeline.", "body": "Erie's Restaurant Manager/GM pay is stable at $56,848 against a national figure trending down to $59,618, while Assistant Manager pay fell significantly to $34,606 locally versus $39,000 nationally. A widening gap between assistant and general manager pay may discourage internal promotion, pushing operators toward costlier external GM hires."}, {"headline": "Pennsylvania's frozen wage floor keeps compliance risk low but limits flexibility.", "body": "The $7.25 state minimum and $2.83 tipped wage have not moved in 17 years, unlike Florida's jump to $15.00 effective September 30. Erie operators face less payroll shock than peers in rising-minimum-wage states, but also have less structural cover to justify incremental pay increases to retain talent."}], "local_conditions": "Erie MSA unemployment held at 4.2% in September, slightly above the national 4.1% and Pennsylvania's 4.1%, with nonfarm payroll growth largely flat across major industries including leisure and hospitality. National restaurant job openings have fallen sharply, from 916,000 in January to 673,000 by July, a cooling signal that appears to be reaching Erie's historically tight food-service labor pool even without a local minimum wage change.", "implications": "Softening national restaurant job openings combined with Erie's stagnant payroll growth suggests candidate pools may be loosening for the first time in several cycles, giving operators more leverage in hiring timelines than they've had since the post-pandemic recovery. Pennsylvania's frozen $7.25 minimum wage and $2.83 tipped floor keep the wage base fixed, but local server pay moving up while assistant manager and line cook pay moves down points to a reallocation of labor budget toward tip-exposed front-of-house roles rather than broad-based increases. Consider reviewing whether retention investment in kitchen and management tiers is being crowded out by competitive server pay, since BOH attrition carries higher replacement cost per hire.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Pennsylvania's House passed H.B. 2189 to raise the state minimum wage, though the Senate has not acted. Erie operators should watch whether Senate movement occurs before year-end, since any statewide increase would hit tipped and crew wage structures directly."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "National restaurant job openings have fallen for seven straight months through July. Watch whether Erie's typically tight crew and server applicant pools show measurable improvement in October and November postings."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Assistant Restaurant Manager pay has dropped significantly both locally and nationally, a signal distinct from the stable GM track. Monitor whether this reflects softening demand for the role or a restructuring of management career ladders toward flatter staffing models."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Pennsylvania's unemployment held a tenth below the national rate even as Erie's local rate (4.2%) sits slightly above both. Divergence between state and metro conditions may widen if Erie's manufacturing and insurance sectors continue flat hiring, pushing more labor supply toward hospitality."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27575.0, "metro_p50": 34606.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39000.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 39158.5, "metro_p50": 52337.0, "metro_p75": 58786.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 50960.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24708.0, "metro_p50": 27040.0, "metro_p75": 29120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 29839.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29120.0, "metro_p50": 32254.0, "metro_p75": 33780.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 36826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50000.0, "metro_p50": 56848.0, "metro_p75": 59066.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 59618.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27049.0, "metro_p50": 30646.0, "metro_p75": 34320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 35012.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28080.0, "metro_p50": 31359.0, "metro_p75": 32156.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 32731.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "erie-pa-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "pdf": "erie-pa-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:50:24.127296+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/erie-pa-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/erie-pa-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}