{"schema_version": 1, "id": "erie-pa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 161, "label": "Erie, PA MSA", "slug": "erie-pa-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:32:41.373816+00:00", "headline": "Erie unemployment overtakes Pennsylvania's rate as manufacturing pay softens.", "headline_summary": "Erie's unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in September, above Pennsylvania's statewide 3.6%, as local manufacturing wages fell to a $34,754 median even as CDL trucking pay climbed to $83,200.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Erie MSA unemployment rate", "value": "4.2%", "context": "Up from 3.9% in August; above PA's 3.6%"}, {"label": "Pennsylvania unemployment rate", "value": "3.6%", "context": "Sept. 2026, lowest since Sept. 2023"}, {"label": "PA civilian labor force", "value": "6,663,000", "context": "Record high, up 4,000 month-over-month"}, {"label": "National wage growth vs. CPI", "value": "1.5% vs 3.5%", "context": "Median weekly earnings trail inflation, Q3 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Erie's unemployment gap with Pennsylvania just reversed.", "body": "Erie's 4.2% September rate now sits above the statewide 3.6%, a reversal from earlier in the year when the metro tracked near or below the state figure. Watch whether October's BLS release (due this month) confirms a sustained local divergence or reflects a seasonal blip."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing pay softness cuts against Pennsylvania's statewide gains.", "body": "Metro manufacturing production worker pay is down year-over-year to $34,754 against a stable $39,520 national median, even as Pennsylvania recorded manufacturing job gains in seven of eleven supersectors statewide. Erie's plastics-heavy manufacturing base, representing over 10% of national plastics production, appears more exposed to local softening than the state's broader industrial mix."}, {"headline": "CDL trucking pay strength signals logistics demand holding up.", "body": "Metro CDL Truck Driver advertised pay rose to a $83,200 median, running well above the $78,872 national figure, even as broader transportation and logistics WARN filings climbed statewide. Freight and distribution activity in the Erie corridor appears to be an area of local resilience worth tracking against the metro's otherwise softening headline numbers."}, {"headline": "Tech-adjacent wage gains hint at a small but real high-value segment.", "body": "Software Engineer ($129,442) and Data Engineer ($111,821) metro medians both posted significant year-over-year increases, outpacing many national benchmarks in percentage terms despite lower absolute levels. A modest but growing technical wage segment inside a traditionally manufacturing- and healthcare-anchored economy may be worth highlighting in regional investment and talent-attraction narratives."}], "local_conditions": "Erie metro unemployment climbed to 4.2% in September, up from August's 3.9%, moving above Pennsylvania's statewide rate of 3.6% for the first time in recent months even as the state's labor force hit a record 6,663,000 workers. Manufacturing wage softness locally (Manufacturing Production Worker pay down year-over-year to a $34,754 metro median versus $39,520 nationally) stands apart from statewide manufacturing WARN activity and a national backdrop of elevated but uneven wage growth, suggesting Erie's plastics- and manufacturing-dependent base is cooling faster than the commonwealth as a whole.", "implications": "Rising local unemployment alongside a stable statewide rate points to Erie-specific softness, which matters for how commerce leaders read the metro's standing relative to peer markets when courting investment or assessing consumer demand. Divergent local wage trends \u2014 advertised pay falling for manufacturing and customer service roles while rising for software engineering, data engineering, and CDL trucking \u2014 indicate the local economy is bifurcating between a shrinking traditional-manufacturing wage base and pockets of higher-value, higher-pay activity. Current conditions suggest local economic development and chamber leadership may want to track whether the September unemployment uptick persists into October's release before characterizing it as a sustained trend.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "October's BLS release for the Erie MSA (originally scheduled October 28) will clarify whether September's jump to 4.2% unemployment marks a trend break from the stable near-4% conditions seen earlier in 2026 or reflects a one-month statistical movement."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Pennsylvania recorded 17 WARN notices affecting 1,899 workers in the past 90 days statewide, concentrated in manufacturing, healthcare, and transportation & logistics. Commerce leaders should monitor whether any new filings touch Erie-area manufacturing or plastics operations specifically, given the metro's outsized exposure to that sector."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Healthcare continues to lead job growth statewide (education & health services up 32,600 year-over-year in Pennsylvania), and Erie's Certified Nursing Assistant/Home Health Aide pay has held flat at $41,600, matching the national figure. Sustained parity with national healthcare pay may indicate the sector is becoming a stabilizing force for the local economy even as manufacturing softens."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "National wage-vs-inflation data show real wages declining (median weekly earnings up 1.5% against 3.5% CPI growth), and Erie's own wage picture is mixed, with several hourly and clerical categories (Customer Service Representative, Food Service Worker, Administrative Assistant) posting flat-to-declining local pay. Consumer spending power in the metro bears watching heading into the holiday retail season."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23500.5, "metro_p50": 29120.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24960.0, "metro_p50": 28724.0, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32022.0, "metro_p50": 37428.8, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58441.0, "metro_p50": 83200.0, "metro_p75": 92690.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29120.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 34534.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30680.0, "metro_p50": 35428.0, "metro_p75": 44460.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52000.0, "metro_p50": 68088.0, "metro_p75": 69501.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32240.0, "metro_p50": 34754.2, "metro_p75": 36920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32946.0, "metro_p50": 33986.0, "metro_p75": 36726.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26498.0, "metro_p50": 29120.0, "metro_p75": 34840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33578.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 44720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 40000.0, "metro_p75": 47704.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54500.0, "metro_p50": 62400.0, "metro_p75": 68017.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 84645.0, "metro_p50": 99840.8, "metro_p75": 109504.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 109200.0, "metro_p50": 129442.4, "metro_p75": 143979.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 96263.0, "metro_p50": 111821.2, "metro_p75": 121795.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52729.0, "metro_p50": 59366.6, "metro_p75": 69768.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 69488.0, "metro_p50": 84483.2, "metro_p75": 92765.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57500.0, "metro_p50": 80098.0, "metro_p75": 88812.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48237.0, "metro_p50": 56812.0, "metro_p75": 58945.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70204.0, "metro_p50": 85277.0, "metro_p75": 98803.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30412.0, "metro_p50": 41239.0, "metro_p75": 48771.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65275.0, "metro_p50": 85719.0, "metro_p75": 98094.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 52917.0, "metro_p50": 72500.0, "metro_p75": 80000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 83138.0, "metro_p50": 101770.0, "metro_p75": 105619.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 48710.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 61000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 34320.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 59800.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 70720.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 68088.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 48023.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 55536.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 31200.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 66495.5, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Erie MSA unemployment rate reached 4.2% in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Pennsylvania Department of Labor & Industry", "source_url": null, "statement": "Pennsylvania unemployment fell to 3.6% in September 2026, a record labor force"}, {"source_name": "Regional economic development research", "source_url": null, "statement": "Over 10% of U.S. plastics manufactured or finished in Erie-based plants"}, {"source_name": "Pennsylvania WARN Act Tracker", "source_url": null, "statement": "Pennsylvania recorded 17 WARN notices affecting 1,899 workers in past 90 days"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Median weekly earnings rose 1.5% vs. 3.5% CPI gain, Q3 2026"}, {"source_name": "Pennsylvania Department of Labor & Industry", "source_url": null, "statement": "Education & health services added 32,600 jobs year-over-year in Pennsylvania"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "erie-pa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "erie-pa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "erie-pa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:21:33.365115+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/erie-pa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/erie-pa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}