{"schema_version": 1, "id": "erie-pa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 161, "label": "Erie, PA MSA", "slug": "erie-pa-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:38:44.156894+00:00", "headline": "Erie's labor market holds steady while wage growth loses ground.", "headline_summary": "Erie's unemployment rate sits at 4.2% against a national 4.2%, while Pennsylvania wages grew 3.3% year-over-year even as national inflation runs at 3.4%, eroding real purchasing power for metro workers.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Erie MSA unemployment rate", "value": "4.2%", "context": "Matches national 4.2%, up from 3.7% in July 2026"}, {"label": "National wage growth", "value": "3.0% YoY", "context": "Weakest since May 2021; trails 3.4% inflation"}, {"label": "Erie civilian labor force", "value": "128,500", "context": "Preliminary July 2026; essentially flat year-over-year"}, {"label": "PA nonfarm payrolls", "value": "6,252,900", "context": "17th consecutive month at a record high"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Erie's flat labor force is the story beneath the stable rate.", "body": "Civilian labor force held near 128,500 with employment at 123,700 through mid-2026, showing little net change over the year. A steady unemployment rate built on a non-growing labor pool signals stagnation rather than strength, a distinction that matters for any economic development pitch built around workforce availability."}, {"headline": "Wage softness is showing up unevenly across the metro's basket.", "body": "Construction laborer, delivery driver, customer service representative, and food service advertised pay all moved down locally this month while national figures for the same roles held stable or flat. Concentrated softness in blue-collar and service roles locally, even as national construction and manufacturing hiring accelerated, suggests Erie's goods-and-services sectors are not sharing in the national pickup."}, {"headline": "Financial and technical roles buck the metro's wage trend.", "body": "Financial analyst, account manager, business analyst, and software engineer advertised pay all rose locally, in some cases significantly, even as blue-collar metro wages softened. Divergence points to a bifurcated local economy where knowledge-sector employers are competing harder for talent while goods-producing and service employers face less wage pressure."}, {"headline": "Statewide participation drop-off is a regional risk worth tracking.", "body": "Pennsylvania saw labor force dropouts nearly double from roughly 8,000 in early 2025 to over 15,000 by Q3 2025, a trend that, if mirrored in Erie, would understate the metro's real labor slack behind a stable headline unemployment rate. Commerce leaders citing low unemployment as evidence of a tight market should weigh this participation data alongside it."}], "local_conditions": "Erie MSA unemployment held at 4.2% in September, tracking the national rate exactly, with nonfarm employment showing little month-over-month change across major industries and a civilian labor force that has remained structurally flat near 128,500 since mid-year. Local conditions mirror the state's broader pattern of record nonfarm job totals paired with cooling momentum: Pennsylvania's health and education sector continues to carry job growth while government, construction, and trade/transportation sectors contracted statewide, a divergence consistent with what's visible in Erie's manufacturing-and-healthcare-anchored economy.", "implications": "Flat labor force participation alongside stagnant major-industry employment suggests Erie's economic expansion is constrained less by demand than by the available labor pool and the structure of local industry, a distinction that matters for anyone evaluating expansion or relocation decisions in the metro. Advertised pay softness in several metro roles \u2014 construction laborer, delivery driver, and food service wages all declined locally even as national figures held stable \u2014 is consistent with a cooling, not tightening, local business climate rather than a tight labor supply story. Commerce and economic development leaders should consider evaluating whether current labor force participation figures reflect demographic headwinds (aging workforce, limited in-migration) versus a cyclical pause, since the policy response to each differs substantially.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected data release", "body": "Pennsylvania's official September employment figures for Erie publish October 27, with a three-week lag standard for state labor data. Watch for confirmation of whether the 4.2% rate holds or drifts, consistent with the state's own uptick from 3.7% to 4.1% between August and September."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "National wage growth slowed to 3.0% annually, its weakest pace since May 2021, while inflation runs at 3.4% \u2014 a gap that, if it persists locally, would compound Erie's already-soft advertised pay readings in service and goods-handling occupations. A continued widening would pressure local consumer spending capacity more than any single employer announcement."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Pennsylvania's Health and Education and Leisure/Hospitality sectors added a combined 36,000 jobs statewide over the past year, while government, construction, and trade sectors lost nearly 14,000. Whether Erie's healthcare and insurance employers mirror that statewide strength will be a key signal of whether the metro participates in the state's uneven recovery or remains flat."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "No major WARN notices or plant closures have been reported in the Erie metro this review period, a contrast with Pennsylvania's broader 174 filings over 24 months. Continued absence of local WARN activity is a modest positive signal for commerce leaders assessing near-term business climate stability."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23559.0, "metro_p50": 29120.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24960.0, "metro_p50": 28839.0, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31275.0, "metro_p50": 35383.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57541.0, "metro_p50": 83200.0, "metro_p75": 93600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27781.75, "metro_p50": 32638.0, "metro_p75": 33665.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30680.0, "metro_p50": 35428.0, "metro_p75": 46800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58792.0, "metro_p50": 69160.0, "metro_p75": 70566.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32240.0, "metro_p50": 35544.4, "metro_p75": 37116.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33023.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26014.5, "metro_p50": 29536.0, "metro_p75": 34840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34320.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 45263.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 41245.0, "metro_p75": 48372.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54500.0, "metro_p50": 62215.0, "metro_p75": 65000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 85122.0, "metro_p50": 100880.0, "metro_p75": 111300.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 109200.0, "metro_p50": 120363.0, "metro_p75": 132488.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 96824.0, "metro_p50": 102351.0, "metro_p75": 114358.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52500.0, "metro_p50": 55464.0, "metro_p75": 59142.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 69601.75, "metro_p50": 90311.0, "metro_p75": 92125.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54691.5, "metro_p50": 70577.0, "metro_p75": 80099.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 49487.0, "metro_p50": 62371.0, "metro_p75": 70265.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 71998.0, "metro_p50": 82960.0, "metro_p75": 98931.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30324.0, "metro_p50": 44721.0, "metro_p75": 49606.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65275.0, "metro_p50": 87579.6, "metro_p75": 100000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 52917.0, "metro_p50": 74000.0, "metro_p75": 81500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 83837.0, "metro_p50": 105619.0, "metro_p75": 115679.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 46763.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 63868.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 34320.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 58500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 70720.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 68088.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 47840.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 55632.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 31200.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 66955.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "erie-pa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "erie-pa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "erie-pa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:50:23.813255+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/erie-pa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/erie-pa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}