{"schema_version": 1, "id": "elmira-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 146, "label": "Elmira, NY MSA", "slug": "elmira-ny-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:39:08.845891+00:00", "headline": "Elmira's labor market cools quietly as the workforce itself shrinks.", "headline_summary": "Chemung County unemployment edged up to 4.2% in August even as the civilian labor force held near 35,666, a pattern more consistent with workers exiting the market than with businesses adding payroll.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Chemung County unemployment", "value": "4.2%", "context": "Up from 4.1% in June 2026; vs 4.2% U.S., 4.3% NY"}, {"label": "Civilian labor force", "value": "35,666", "context": "July 2026, essentially flat month over month"}, {"label": "National wage growth vs inflation", "value": "3.0% vs 3.4%", "context": "Real wages declining nationally, Sept 2026"}, {"label": "NY statewide WARN activity", "value": "46 notices / 4,694 workers", "context": "Trailing 90 days, no large-scale local filings"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "A flat labor force, not a hiring boom, is driving the numbers.", "body": "Civilian labor force size has barely moved since June while unemployment ticked up a tenth of a point, mirroring the statewide pattern where NYC's jobless rate improved mainly because job-seekers exited rather than because hiring accelerated. That distinction matters for anyone reading the unemployment rate as a simple health gauge."}, {"headline": "Healthcare wage strength looks like the region's one bright spot.", "body": "Registered Nurse and CNA/Home Health Aide advertised pay are both up significantly locally, outpacing national figures by a wide margin, consistent with Healthcare & Social Assistance being the only New York sector posting broad job gains over the past year. Economic development messaging built around a single growth sector risks overstating the metro's overall momentum."}, {"headline": "Skilled trades pay is diverging sharply from office and retail roles.", "body": "CDL Truck Driver and Electrician advertised pay show significant local gains, while Administrative Assistant and Customer Service Representative pay are down moderately \u2014 a split that tracks the national divergence between hands-on and white-collar labor demand. Commerce leaders courting employers should expect this bifurcation to shape which sectors find workers easily and which do not."}, {"headline": "No major layoffs locally, but the regional WARN backdrop bears watching.", "body": "No Elmira-specific WARN filings surfaced this month, and New York's statewide WARN activity (46 notices, 4,694 workers over 90 days) remains concentrated in healthcare, manufacturing, and transportation \u2014 sectors with local presence. Absence of local notices is reassuring but not a guarantee given reporting lags of four to six weeks."}], "local_conditions": "Chemung County's unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in August 2026 from 4.1% in June, tracking slightly above the national rate of 4.2% and the state rate of 4.3%, while the civilian labor force has held roughly flat near 35,666 \u2014 a sign of a labor market stalling rather than tightening. Decades-long manufacturing contraction continues to shape the metro's structure, with education and health care now functioning as the primary source of steady employment, consistent with regional Federal Reserve reporting that upstate small businesses are reporting weaker revenue growth and more pessimism about 2026 prospects.", "implications": "Flat labor force participation alongside a ticking-up unemployment rate suggests Elmira's economy is not generating enough new activity to absorb or re-engage available workers, a signal more relevant to local investment and workforce-development planning than to any single employer's staffing posture. Commerce leaders weighing expansion or relocation incentives should treat the metro's labor supply as stable in size but soft in momentum \u2014 sufficient for steady-state operations, less clearly sufficient for rapid scale-up. Consider evaluating local labor force trends alongside regional Beige Book commentary before assuming slack labor supply translates into readily available talent for growth-stage hiring.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected", "body": "September 2026 BLS data for Chemung County will not be released until roughly late October or November; current readings are still August figures. Treat any September-dated claims about the local rate with caution until the official release lands."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Statewide labor force participation slipped from 61.5% to 61.3% in July, and Elmira's flat labor force suggests the metro may be tracking this broader withdrawal trend. A continued decline would complicate any economic development pitch built on available local labor supply."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "New York's Beige Book notes emptying construction pipelines tied to high interest rates and input costs, even as Elmira's Construction Laborer pay rose moderately. Watch whether local construction activity holds up against that statewide headwind over the next two months."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National wage growth has slowed to 3.0% year-over-year against 3.4% inflation, meaning real purchasing power is now declining nationally; Elmira's wage figures are mixed enough \u2014 some roles up significantly, others down \u2014 that local purchasing power trends merit a closer look next quarter."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30570.75, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 35235.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 34048.0, "metro_p75": 35757.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35235.0, "metro_p50": 36816.0, "metro_p75": 38272.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56047.0, "metro_p50": 88377.0, "metro_p75": 98800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30859.0, "metro_p50": 33589.0, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58958.5, "metro_p50": 69405.6, "metro_p75": 73840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 44720.0, "metro_p75": 53752.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37960.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 40653.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 34840.0, "metro_p75": 34840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41652.0, "metro_p50": 48071.0, "metro_p75": 52000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37419.0, "metro_p50": 38521.2, "metro_p75": 42224.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60145.75, "metro_p50": 68692.4, "metro_p75": 76784.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 97269.5, "metro_p50": 117730.0, "metro_p75": 124821.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 117636.0, "metro_p50": 137583.2, "metro_p75": 144902.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 99248.0, "metro_p50": 142396.0, "metro_p75": 159248.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62058.0, "metro_p50": 70000.0, "metro_p75": 102500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 90000.0, "metro_p50": 92793.0, "metro_p75": 95066.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 103560.5, "metro_p50": 106000.0, "metro_p75": 115125.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 45760.0, "metro_p50": 59470.0, "metro_p75": 70614.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70000.0, "metro_p50": 85960.0, "metro_p75": 100600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37228.0, "metro_p50": 42546.6, "metro_p75": 55996.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72377.0, "metro_p50": 81765.0, "metro_p75": 90000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 47232.25, "metro_p50": 62774.0, "metro_p75": 75021.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 81984.0, "metro_p50": 96720.0, "metro_p75": 108992.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 54080.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 94429.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 36192.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 49960.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 36700.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 45000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 59700.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 55996.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 34386.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 68931.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "elmira-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "elmira-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "elmira-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:50:22.367304+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/elmira-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/elmira-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}