{"schema_version": 1, "id": "elkhart-goshen-in-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 156, "label": "Elkhart-Goshen, IN MSA", "slug": "elkhart-goshen-in-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T06:29:31.950999+00:00", "headline": "Elkhart restaurant pay holds flat while cook wages trail the nation.", "headline_summary": "Elkhart-Goshen Line Cook pay sits at $31,614 versus $37,421 nationally, even as the metro's 3.8% unemployment rate and softer manufacturing hiring suggest more slack in the entry-level labor pool.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Elkhart-Goshen unemployment rate", "value": "3.8%", "context": "Down from 4.1% in July; Indiana at 3.6%"}, {"label": "Line Cook pay gap vs. national", "value": "-15%", "context": "$31,614 metro vs. $37,421 national median"}, {"label": "Manufacturing employment change", "value": "-1.8%", "context": "Vs. August 2025, despite +500 jobs in August"}, {"label": "Restaurant Manager/GM pay trend", "value": "Down, moderate", "context": "$54,586 metro vs. stable $59,724 national"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Line Cook pay lags national by $5,800, signaling a retention gap.", "body": "Elkhart's $31,614 median for Line Cook trails the $37,421 national figure by 15%, even as BLS projects cook employment to grow 12% through 2035 versus 2% for servers. A manufacturing rebound could pull back-of-house talent toward higher-paying production work, widening this gap further."}, {"headline": "Management pay is moving the wrong direction for retention.", "body": "Restaurant Manager/GM advertised pay fell moderately to $54,586 locally while holding stable at $59,724 nationally, a divergence that may signal softer competition for management talent or a lag in adjusting to regional conditions. Either way, the trend bears watching against turnover data as seasonal demand builds."}, {"headline": "Tipped-wage deregulation creates local flexibility without local pressure to use it.", "body": "DOL's elimination of the 80/20 rule lets operators pay $2.13 for non-tip-producing duties without the prior 20% cap, a direct labor-cost lever for side work and prep time. Indiana's frozen wage floor means this mainly matters where front-of-house staff already spend meaningful time on non-tipped tasks during slow shifts."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing softness may be quietly refilling the entry-level pool.", "body": "Manufacturing employment remains 1.8% below year-ago levels even as the metro added 1,600 payroll jobs in August, suggesting some displaced production workers may be available for food-service roles. Stable advertised pay for Crew and Server roles is consistent with this modest loosening in the labor market."}], "local_conditions": "Elkhart-Goshen's 3.8% unemployment rate and manufacturing employment still running 1.8% below August 2025 levels signal a metro where RV-sector softness is freeing up some workers even as the broader labor market stays historically tight, with Indiana's statewide 3.6% rate reinforcing a narrow applicant pool for entry-level roles. National tipped-wage deregulation \u2014 DOL's withdrawal of the 80/20 rule \u2014 lands in a market where Indiana's $2.13 tipped base and $7.25 minimum wage remain frozen, giving operators new flexibility on side-work pay just as front-of-house advertised pay has held flat.", "implications": "Flat advertised pay for Server ($29,895) and Crew ($29,981) against a backdrop of manufacturing layoff exposure suggests Elkhart operators are competing lightly for front-of-house labor so far, while back-of-house hiring tells a different story \u2014 Line Cook pay sits at $31,614 against a national median of $37,421, a gap that may reflect a local labor surplus or a ceiling that risks losing cooks to RV-sector wage competition if manufacturing rebounds. Restaurant Manager/GM pay moving down moderately to $54,586 locally, against a stable $59,724 nationally, raises retention questions for management pipelines heading into holiday seasonal staffing. Consider reviewing whether declining management pay reflects a deliberate cost position or a lagging response to a tightening regional labor pool.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Manufacturing employment sitting 1.8% below last year, paired with RV-sector volatility, could either release workers into food service or reverse quickly if production rebounds. Watch monthly manufacturing payroll changes as a leading indicator for back-of-house applicant flow."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Indiana's reliance on an estimated 104,500 undocumented workers in food-service-adjacent roles statewide makes back-of-house staffing vulnerable to enforcement activity. Elkhart operators dependent on immigrant labor for prep and dish roles should monitor federal enforcement signals closely over the next two months."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Restaurant Manager/GM pay decline locally against stable national pay is an early divergence worth tracking through the next compensation cycle. If the gap widens, it may indicate a structural retention risk for management talent heading into 2027 planning."}, {"category": "Expected", "body": "Holiday-season staffing swings will test whether flat Crew and Server pay ($29,981 and $29,895) holds as seasonal hiring demand rises. Watch local job ad volume for these roles \u2014 a signal of hiring demand where one ad often covers several openings \u2014 for early signs of wage pressure building into Q4."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29308.75, "metro_p50": 37095.0, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39211.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 42640.0, "metro_p75": 53662.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 50076.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23500.0, "metro_p50": 29981.0, "metro_p75": 30838.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 30066.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29046.0, "metro_p50": 31614.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 37421.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 44720.0, "metro_p50": 54586.0, "metro_p75": 57389.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 59724.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26307.0, "metro_p50": 29895.4, "metro_p75": 33383.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 35024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26551.0, "metro_p50": 29120.0, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "Specialized Staffing Michigan/Indiana Labor Market Review", "source_url": null, "statement": "Elkhart-Goshen unemployment rate at 3.8% in August, down from 4.1% in July"}, {"source_name": "Specialized Staffing October 2026 Review", "source_url": null, "statement": "Manufacturing employment 1.8% below August 2025 levels despite monthly gains"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "DOL withdrew the 80/20 rule for tipped wage non-tip-producing duties"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "BLS projects cook employment to grow 12% from 2025-2035 versus 2% for waiters"}, {"source_name": "Indiana Restaurant Labor Market Research", "source_url": null, "statement": "Indiana hosts an estimated 104,500 undocumented workers, many in food service roles"}, {"source_name": "Indiana Department of Workforce Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "Indiana unemployment rate held at 3.6% in August 2026"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "elkhart-goshen-in-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "pdf": "elkhart-goshen-in-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:21:29.167233+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/elkhart-goshen-in-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/elkhart-goshen-in-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}