{"schema_version": 1, "id": "elkhart-goshen-in-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 156, "label": "Elkhart-Goshen, IN MSA", "slug": "elkhart-goshen-in-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:32:59.315294+00:00", "headline": "Elkhart restaurant labor pool loosens as manufacturing cools.", "headline_summary": "Elkhart-Goshen unemployment climbed to 4.1% from 3.3% in three months, and local Crew advertised pay fell to $28,378 even as national Crew pay held flat.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Elkhart-Goshen unemployment rate", "value": "4.1%", "context": "Up from 3.3% in May 2026"}, {"label": "Manufacturing share of metro jobs", "value": "~46%", "context": "Mostly RV production, outsized claims share"}, {"label": "National food service job openings", "value": "673,000", "context": "Down from 916,000 in Jan 2026"}, {"label": "Indiana minimum/tipped wage", "value": "$7.25 / $2.13", "context": "Frozen since 2009, vs FL's new $15.00/$11.98"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "A softening manufacturing sector is restocking the restaurant labor pool.", "body": "Elkhart County unemployment rose from 3.3% to 4.1% in three months, concentrated in manufacturing claims even as RV output stays above last year. Operators who struggled to staff entry-level and BOH roles through 2025 may find candidate flow easing without needing to raise starting pay."}, {"headline": "Crew pay is falling locally while the rest of the pay structure holds.", "body": "Metro Crew advertised pay dropped to a median of $28,378, a moderate decline, while Server, Shift Manager and Line Cook medians stayed flat. That divergence suggests softening is concentrated at the entry tier of the labor market, not spreading across the full wage ladder yet."}, {"headline": "Management pay is retreating faster locally than nationally.", "body": "Elkhart's General Manager median ($53,055) and national median ($59,618) both moved down this month, but the local decline tracks a metro where management ranks may be absorbing cost pressure from a flat-wage, high-turnover hourly base. Operators benchmarking GM and Assistant Manager offers should weigh whether this reflects genuine local softening or a smaller, thinner sample of advertised listings."}, {"headline": "Indiana's frozen wage floor keeps cost predictability, not cost advantage.", "body": "With the $7.25 minimum and $2.13 tipped wage unchanged since 2009, Elkhart operators face no statutory cost shock this year, unlike Florida's move to $15.00 and a $11.98 tipped base. That stability is an opportunity to redeploy planning energy from compliance toward targeted retention investment in BOH roles, where state data shows skill gaps \u2014 not applicant volume \u2014 remain the binding constraint."}], "local_conditions": "Elkhart-Goshen's unemployment rate has climbed from 3.3% in May to 4.1% by late summer 2026, with manufacturing \u2014 nearly half of all local nonfarm employment \u2014 contributing an outsized share of claims even as RV production holds above year-ago levels. That softening in the metro's dominant industry is loosening the broader labor pool just as national restaurant job openings fall from 916,000 to 673,000 since January, a combination that eases the hiring pressure Elkhart operators have faced for years.", "implications": "Cooling manufacturing employment typically pushes displaced production and warehouse workers toward food service, a pattern that has historically compressed back-of-house hiring timelines and advertised pay growth in this metro \u2014 consistent with Crew pay softening locally while holding stable nationally. Indiana's frozen $7.25 minimum wage and $2.13 tipped floor mean statutory cost pressure stays flat, so labor cost decisions here hinge almost entirely on competitive positioning rather than compliance; current conditions suggest evaluating whether Crew and Line Cook pay still needs to lead the market or can hold steady while redirecting savings toward retention programs for harder-to-fill BOH skill roles.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether Elkhart County's unemployment rate keeps climbing past 4.1% or stabilizes; continued manufacturing softening would likely keep loosening the entry-level labor pool restaurants draw from, but a sharp downturn could also compress consumer spending and tip income."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Indiana food services employment swung from job losses in June-July to concentrated gains in August, a volatility pattern that complicates seasonal staffing calendars. Track whether that bounce holds into fall or reverses as RV-sector layoffs filter through."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "National accommodation and food services job openings have fallen by roughly a third since January 2026, suggesting reduced hiring urgency industry-wide. If that trend reaches Elkhart's advertised postings, expect further softening in Crew and Shift Manager pay rather than a rebound."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Owens Corning's 130-employee Walkerton layoff takes effect September 19 and other regional WARN filings (Humano, Simos, First Brands) add thousands of displaced workers to the broader labor pool. Monitor local job boards for a near-term uptick in restaurant applications from workers with no food-service background."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30160.0, "metro_p50": 37096.0, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39000.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 35380.5, "metro_p50": 44314.4, "metro_p75": 54174.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 50960.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24148.0, "metro_p50": 28378.0, "metro_p75": 30838.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 29839.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29065.0, "metro_p50": 32096.0, "metro_p75": 33990.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 36826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 44720.0, "metro_p50": 53055.0, "metro_p75": 57389.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 59618.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26000.0, "metro_p50": 29904.0, "metro_p75": 32789.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 35012.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26040.0, "metro_p50": 29120.0, "metro_p75": 32029.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 32731.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "elkhart-goshen-in-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "pdf": "elkhart-goshen-in-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:50:21.671426+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/elkhart-goshen-in-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/elkhart-goshen-in-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}