{"schema_version": 1, "id": "elkhart-goshen-in-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 156, "label": "Elkhart-Goshen, IN MSA", "slug": "elkhart-goshen-in-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:34:51.713699+00:00", "headline": "Elkhart manufacturing stabilizes, but last year's jobs aren't back yet.", "headline_summary": "Elkhart-Goshen unemployment fell to 3.8% in August on 500 new manufacturing jobs, yet sector employment still sits 1.8% below August 2025 \u2014 a partial rebound still underway.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "3.8%", "context": "Down from 4.1% in July 2026"}, {"label": "Manufacturing employment gap", "value": "-1.8%", "context": "Vs. August 2025, despite +500 jobs in August"}, {"label": "Statewide labor force participation", "value": "63.1%", "context": "Above national rate of 61.8%"}, {"label": "Indiana unemployment rate", "value": "3.4%", "context": "Up from 3.3%, first rise since Aug 2024"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Manufacturing is adding jobs but hasn't closed last year's gap.", "body": "August's 500 manufacturing jobs added locally still leave employment 1.8% below August 2025 \u2014 consistent with a sector stabilizing after a downturn and still working toward full recovery. Commerce leaders tracking the metro's core industry should read this as a partial rebound, with prior output levels still ahead."}, {"headline": "Logistics pay gains outpace the metro's white-collar roles.", "body": "CDL truck driver pay rose significantly to $78,000 and warehouse/fulfillment pay rose moderately to $39,520, while business analyst and marketing specialist advertised pay fell significantly. Divergence points to where local demand is concentrated \u2014 physical goods movement tied to manufacturing \u2014 versus where professional-services demand has softened."}, {"headline": "Falling unemployment may reflect a shrinking labor pool alongside hiring gains.", "body": "Indiana's statewide labor force shrank 18,900 year-over-year even as the unemployment rate stayed low, a pattern consistent with national trends tied to slower population and immigration-driven labor force growth. Elkhart's own rate improvement should be read alongside this statewide dynamic before being treated as a sign of unambiguous economic strength."}, {"headline": "Healthcare hiring signals are a statewide bright spot worth tracking locally.", "body": "Indiana's Education & Health sector added 3,700 jobs in the September reporting period, the strongest gain of any tracked category, while CNA/home health aide pay in Elkhart rose moderately to $39,718. Consistent healthcare demand offers a counterweight to manufacturing's cyclicality for economic development planning."}], "local_conditions": "Elkhart-Goshen's unemployment rate fell to 3.8% in August from 4.1% in July, and the metro added 1,600 payroll jobs including 500 in manufacturing, even as manufacturing employment stayed 1.8% below its year-ago level \u2014 a signal that production hiring is stabilizing while still working to recover RV and mobile-home sector losses. Production occupations remain 32.7% of metro employment versus a 5.7% national share, meaning this economy's trajectory still rises and falls disproportionately with manufacturing output, a dynamic distinct from the broader service-sector trends shaping national job growth.", "implications": "Manufacturing's uneven recovery alongside a still-tight overall labor market (3.3% county unemployment, above-average labor force participation statewide at 63.1%) suggests local business conditions are stable, with expansion still ahead \u2014 a useful distinction for commerce leaders weighing timing on capital investment or facility announcements. Advertised pay gains in warehouse/fulfillment ($39,520, up moderately) and CDL trucking ($78,000, up significantly) point to continued strength in logistics tied to the region's manufacturing supply chain, even as office and professional roles like business analyst and marketing specialist show significant local pay declines. Commerce and economic development leaders should consider monitoring whether logistics and production wage momentum broadens into other sectors as an early signal of a fuller manufacturing rebound.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Manufacturing employment in Elkhart-Goshen remains below year-ago levels despite recent monthly gains; whether October-November data show the gap closing will indicate if the RV/mobile-home sector is in a durable recovery or a temporary bounce."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Indiana's statewide unemployment uptick to 3.4% in September \u2014 the first increase since August 2024 \u2014 came alongside a shrinking labor force, with job levels holding steady. Watch whether Elkhart's county-level participation follows the same pattern in upcoming releases."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "National CPI data due November 10 will clarify whether real wage erosion (median earnings up 1.5% against 3.5% CPI growth nationally) is narrowing or widening \u2014 directly relevant to assessing local consumer spending power given the metro's hourly-wage-dependent workforce."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Indiana WARN filings are down 11% year-over-year statewide, but Elkhart's manufacturing base remains exposed to tariff and trade-policy shifts affecting RV component costs. Any change in federal trade policy affecting materials pricing bears watching for its pass-through to local production employment."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22794.0, "metro_p50": 29120.0, "metro_p75": 36657.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24107.0, "metro_p50": 26496.4, "metro_p75": 29120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33800.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57195.75, "metro_p50": 78000.0, "metro_p75": 88400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30417.0, "metro_p50": 35551.0, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31460.0, "metro_p50": 38251.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58878.0, "metro_p50": 72800.0, "metro_p75": 74880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32489.25, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35410.75, "metro_p50": 38480.0, "metro_p75": 44499.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27085.0, "metro_p50": 29877.0, "metro_p75": 34500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32909.25, "metro_p50": 39718.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 39102.0, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60570.0, "metro_p50": 68666.0, "metro_p75": 72189.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 76949.5, "metro_p50": 89256.4, "metro_p75": 94251.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 100446.25, "metro_p50": 109101.0, "metro_p75": 118926.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 94031.0, "metro_p50": 128500.0, "metro_p75": 143255.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57500.0, "metro_p50": 65000.0, "metro_p75": 70301.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65000.0, "metro_p50": 76786.4, "metro_p75": 97500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53865.0, "metro_p50": 62162.0, "metro_p75": 66890.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 42472.5, "metro_p50": 51339.0, "metro_p75": 55338.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 81721.0, "metro_p50": 81721.0, "metro_p75": 81721.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33717.25, "metro_p50": 52933.8, "metro_p75": 61289.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52246.0, "metro_p50": 79434.0, "metro_p75": 90000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 64250.0, "metro_p50": 67500.0, "metro_p75": 83284.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 73614.0, "metro_p50": 77669.6, "metro_p75": 83045.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 60661.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 48412.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 34322.5, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 57679.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 54923.5, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 47178.5, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 49788.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 60964.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 30910.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 63096.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Specialized Staffing Labor Market Review", "source_url": null, "statement": "Elkhart-Goshen unemployment rate and payroll job additions, August 2026"}, {"source_name": "Specialized Staffing October 2026 Review", "source_url": null, "statement": "Manufacturing employment 1.8% below August 2025 levels"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Production occupations as share of Elkhart employment vs. national share"}, {"source_name": "Indiana Department of Workforce Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "Indiana labor force shrank 18,900 year-over-year"}, {"source_name": "Indiana Department of Workforce Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "Indiana statewide unemployment rose to 3.4% in September, first increase since Aug 2024"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Median weekly earnings rose 1.5% vs. 3.5% CPI gain, Q3 2026"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "elkhart-goshen-in-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "elkhart-goshen-in-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "elkhart-goshen-in-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:21:28.857622+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/elkhart-goshen-in-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/elkhart-goshen-in-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}