{"schema_version": 1, "id": "elizabethtown-ky-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 198, "label": "Elizabethtown, KY MSA", "slug": "elizabethtown-ky-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:32:55.380772+00:00", "headline": "Elizabethtown restaurant pay splits: servers up, managers down.", "headline_summary": "Metro Server pay rose to $31,592 even as Restaurant Manager pay fell to $55,877, against a backdrop of Kentucky losing 1,600 food service jobs in August alone.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Elizabethtown MSA unemployment", "value": "4.0%", "context": "Dec 2025, down from 4.9% a year earlier"}, {"label": "KY leisure/hospitality job change", "value": "-900", "context": "August 2026, incl. -1,600 in food services"}, {"label": "Metro Server advertised pay", "value": "$31,592", "context": "Up moderately vs. national $35,012 stable"}, {"label": "US food service job openings", "value": "673,000", "context": "Down from 916,000 in Jan 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Restaurant job losses are a Kentucky story, not a national one.", "body": "National restaurant payrolls grew modestly in September (10,800 jobs added) while Kentucky's accommodation and food services sector lost 1,600 positions in August alone. Local softness looks state-specific \u2014 tied to Kentucky's broader two-year stagnation in net job growth \u2014 rather than evidence of a national restaurant slowdown."}, {"headline": "Server pay climbing while GM pay slides signals a FOH-first strategy.", "body": "Metro Server advertised pay rose to a median $31,592 even as Restaurant Manager/GM pay dropped to $55,877, a reversal of the usual management-premium pattern. Operators may be prioritizing frontline retention over management bench depth, a bet worth stress-testing if GM turnover starts climbing."}, {"headline": "Displaced manufacturing workers haven't shown up in restaurant applicant pools yet.", "body": "The Akebono and Fritz Winter closures put roughly 680 manufacturing workers into the local labor force, but restaurant hiring hasn't absorbed them visibly \u2014 Crew pay actually fell to $24,960 locally. Watch whether BOH applicant volume picks up in the next 60 days as severance runs out."}, {"headline": "Flat minimum wage gives Elizabethtown operators a cost advantage, not a free pass.", "body": "Kentucky's unchanged $7.25/$2.13 floor keeps labor costs lower than in states raising tipped minimums, but national data shows job openings in food services fell from 916,000 to 673,000 this year \u2014 meaning the competitive advantage comes with thinner labor supply, not easier hiring."}], "local_conditions": "Elizabethtown-Fort Knox MSA labor conditions tightened into 2026 (unemployment down to 4.0% by December 2025 from 4.9% a year earlier), but that tightening has not translated into restaurant hiring momentum \u2014 Kentucky's leisure and hospitality sector shed 900 jobs statewide in August, with accommodation and food services accounting for 1,600 of those losses. Compounding the softness, the Akebono Brake and Fritz Winter closures removed roughly 680 manufacturing jobs from the local Elizabethtown economy in late 2025, a shock that typically pushes displaced workers toward hourly service roles but has not yet shown up as a restaurant hiring surge.", "implications": "Softer statewide restaurant demand combined with Kentucky's frozen $7.25 minimum wage and $2.13 tipped wage means labor cost pressure here is structurally lower than in states like Florida pushing toward $15, giving Elizabethtown operators unusual room to compete on pay without matching national wage inflation. Metro Server pay rising against a flat-to-down picture for Crew, Assistant Manager, and GM roles suggests operators are reallocating budget toward guest-facing retention rather than broad-based increases, a signal worth testing against your own turnover data by role. Consider reviewing whether FOH pay gains are solving a real retention gap or simply following a local trend that outpaces your actual vacancy risk.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether Hardin County applicant volume for Line Cook and Crew roles rises over the next two months as manufacturing severance from the Akebono and Fritz Winter closures lapses. A delayed influx would suggest workers are exiting the labor force or relocating rather than shifting into food service."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Kentucky's leisure/hospitality job losses (900 in August) could deepen if statewide hiring stays at its slowest pace since the Great Recession. A second consecutive month of sector losses would warrant revisiting seasonal staffing assumptions heading into Q4."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Metro GM and Assistant Manager pay are both softening while Server pay rises \u2014 confirm whether this reflects easier GM sourcing locally or early signs of management attrition that hasn't yet hit turnover reports."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National Indeed Job Postings Index turned positive year-over-year for the first time in nearly four years. If that national tightening reaches Kentucky's restaurant sector, Elizabethtown operators holding wages flat on Crew and GM roles may face renewed pressure to adjust faster than budgets assume."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27774.0, "metro_p50": 36113.0, "metro_p75": 37566.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39000.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 44554.0, "metro_p75": 54946.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 50960.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22352.0, "metro_p50": 24960.0, "metro_p75": 27040.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 29839.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27800.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 33887.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 36826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45429.0, "metro_p50": 55877.0, "metro_p75": 59000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 59618.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25543.25, "metro_p50": 31592.0, "metro_p75": 32176.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 35012.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26973.0, "metro_p50": 30160.0, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 32731.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "elizabethtown-ky-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "pdf": "elizabethtown-ky-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:50:20.304979+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/elizabethtown-ky-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/elizabethtown-ky-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}