{"schema_version": 1, "id": "elizabethtown-ky-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 198, "label": "Elizabethtown, KY MSA", "slug": "elizabethtown-ky-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:33:57.774952+00:00", "headline": "Hardin County unemployment drops as factory pay softens.", "headline_summary": "Hardin County's jobless rate fell to 4.7% from 5.8% in a month, even as metro manufacturing pay dropped to $34,162 against a $39,520 national median.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Hardin County unemployment", "value": "4.7%", "context": "Down from 5.8% in July 2026"}, {"label": "Kentucky statewide unemployment", "value": "4.7%", "context": "Unchanged from August; up 0.2pp YoY"}, {"label": "Manufacturing production wage (metro)", "value": "$34,162", "context": "vs $39,520 national median"}, {"label": "Kentucky WARN-affected workers", "value": "2,654", "context": "Down 60% from 2025 total"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Hardin County's jobless drop outpaces the state's gain.", "body": "County unemployment fell a full percentage point in one month, from 5.8% to 4.7%, while Kentucky's statewide rate held flat at 4.7% through September. Divergence of this size over a short window is consistent with seasonal construction or production hiring, and bears watching before being read as a trend."}, {"headline": "Production wages are softening even as factory jobs return.", "body": "Advertised pay for Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler roles fell moderately to $34,162, well below the $39,520 national median, even as Kentucky manufacturers added workers for three consecutive months. Wage softness alongside hiring suggests employers are filling roles without needing to compete on pay, a sign of adequate local labor supply."}, {"headline": "Office and administrative pay is flat while national rates climb.", "body": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk advertised pay held stable locally at $36,792 against a national median of $44,552 that is itself rising moderately. Widening gap may reflect the metro's lower cost structure, but it also signals this occupational segment is drawing less competitive pressure from regional or remote alternatives than comparable roles face nationally."}, {"headline": "Warehouse and logistics pay is strengthening against a stable national backdrop.", "body": "Warehouse Manager advertised pay rose significantly to $74,500, nearly matching the $75,000 national median, while CDL Truck Driver pay climbed to $80,000 locally \u2014 above the national figure. Movement in logistics-adjacent pay, set against a metro otherwise showing wage softness, points to localized demand tied to the area's distribution and transportation footprint, distinct from any broad-based wage acceleration."}], "local_conditions": "Hardin County's unemployment rate eased to 4.7% in August 2026 from 5.8% in July, moving in line with a statewide pattern of improving household employment even as Kentucky's broader labor market shows no net job growth over the past two years. Elizabethtown's economy remains anchored by production and office/administrative support work \u2014 a combined quarter of area employment \u2014 leaving local wage and hiring trends closely tied to manufacturing conditions at a time when Kentucky manufacturers have added workers for three straight months but remain below year-ago staffing levels.", "implications": "Falling local unemployment alongside flat-to-negative advertised pay in several metro occupations \u2014 Manufacturing Production Worker down moderately, Operations Manager down significantly \u2014 suggests labor availability is improving faster than wage pressure is building, a combination that favors employers evaluating local expansion or relocation. Commerce leaders weighing site-selection or capacity decisions should note that Elizabethtown's production-heavy occupational mix mirrors the state's slow-hiring, low-separation pattern described by Kentucky workforce officials as a stabilized but non-expansionary environment. Current conditions suggest reviewing whether metro wage levels \u2014 still well below national medians across most tracked occupations \u2014 represent a durable cost advantage or a signal of softer local demand before committing to new investment.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Data gap to monitor", "body": "Official BLS MSA-level data for Elizabethtown has not yet published for October, leaving Hardin County figures as the most current proxy. Commerce leaders relying on MSA-level reporting for planning should expect a three-to-four week lag before confirming whether August's county-level improvement held into fall."}, {"category": "Expected", "body": "Kentucky's manufacturing sector has added jobs for three straight months but remains 2,000 positions below its August 2025 level statewide. Watch whether Elizabethtown's production-heavy base, which drives over a tenth of local employment, mirrors that statewide recovery pace or lags it."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Statewide WARN Act filings are down 60% in affected workers year over year, suggesting fewer large-scale local disruptions are likely in the near term. Absence of major notice activity in the metro to date is a stabilizing signal for near-term business planning."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National wage-versus-inflation divergence \u2014 1.5% median earnings growth against 3.5% CPI gain in Q3 \u2014 has not yet shown up as acute local distress, but metro occupations with falling advertised pay (Customer Service Representative, down significantly; Account Manager, down significantly) warrant tracking as a leading indicator of local consumer spending power."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 20490.0, "metro_p50": 26000.0, "metro_p75": 31395.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24214.0, "metro_p50": 27040.0, "metro_p75": 31045.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31329.5, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 35419.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60533.0, "metro_p50": 80000.0, "metro_p75": 90984.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29351.0, "metro_p50": 33736.0, "metro_p75": 40171.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61241.0, "metro_p50": 70749.4, "metro_p75": 73069.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31330.0, "metro_p50": 34161.6, "metro_p75": 35100.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 38486.4, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30578.5, "metro_p50": 40824.4, "metro_p75": 41080.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33119.0, "metro_p50": 37098.0, "metro_p75": 41285.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 36792.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 57200.0, "metro_p50": 65200.0, "metro_p75": 72800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 77893.25, "metro_p50": 90650.0, "metro_p75": 103054.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 117185.75, "metro_p50": 153047.0, "metro_p75": 168101.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 99151.0, "metro_p50": 140000.0, "metro_p75": 157500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 57256.0, "metro_p50": 68640.0, "metro_p75": 75423.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70063.0, "metro_p50": 88453.0, "metro_p75": 100058.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 50820.0, "metro_p50": 67366.0, "metro_p75": 79687.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 43514.5, "metro_p50": 57500.0, "metro_p75": 70028.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 72197.0, "metro_p50": 77500.0, "metro_p75": 91427.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 44144.0, "metro_p50": 66945.6, "metro_p75": 66946.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 31512.0, "metro_p75": 33710.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 55780.75, "metro_p50": 74500.0, "metro_p75": 74500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 79301.25, "metro_p50": 95637.0, "metro_p75": 107457.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 56140.5, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 91573.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 34980.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 65000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 39520.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 52500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 50408.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 78359.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 30370.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 65937.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Kentucky Center for Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Hardin County unemployment fell to 4.7% in August 2026 from 5.8% in July"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Kentucky manufacturing employment remains below August 2025 levels despite recent gains"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Elizabethtown MSA average hourly wage of $25.47 vs national $32.66"}, {"source_name": "Kentucky Center for Statistics / BLS", "source_url": null, "statement": "Kentucky statewide unemployment held at 4.7% in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Kentucky WARN Act filings tracker", "source_url": null, "statement": "Kentucky WARN notices down 60% in affected workers year-over-year"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "National median weekly earnings rose 1.5% vs 3.5% CPI gain in Q3 2026"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "elizabethtown-ky-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "elizabethtown-ky-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "elizabethtown-ky-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:21:26.486718+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/elizabethtown-ky-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/elizabethtown-ky-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}