{"schema_version": 1, "id": "el-paso-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 138, "label": "El Paso, TX MSA", "slug": "el-paso-tx-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:38:55.410517+00:00", "headline": "El Paso jobless rate holds a point above Texas average.", "headline_summary": "El Paso's 4.8% unemployment rate continues to run a full point above both the 4.0% Texas rate and the 4.1% national rate, even as metro warehouse and manufacturing pay softened against a statewide industrial wage gain of 4.8%.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "4.8%", "context": "vs 4.0% Texas, 4.1% national (Aug 2026)"}, {"label": "Texas manufacturing wage growth", "value": "4.8%", "context": "Fastest pace since Dec 2023, statewide"}, {"label": "Metro warehouse/fulfillment pay", "value": "$29,631", "context": "Down, moderate \u2014 diverges from state trend"}, {"label": "Texas labor force participation", "value": "63.7%", "context": "vs 62.2% national"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "El Paso's jobless rate outpaces the state by a full point.", "body": "August's 4.8% metro unemployment rate sits well above Texas's 4.0% and the 4.1% national rate, a gap that has persisted for several months and signals the local economy is absorbing less labor-market tightening than the state overall."}, {"headline": "Goods-movement pay is softening while the state's industrial sector heats up.", "body": "Metro warehouse/fulfillment and manufacturing-production pay both moved down this month, even as Texas manufacturing wages grew 4.8% statewide \u2014 the fastest pace since December 2023 \u2014 suggesting El Paso's logistics and assembly base isn't capturing the broader state's industrial momentum."}, {"headline": "Professional and public-service pay gains tell a different story.", "body": "Registered nurse, teacher, software engineer, and financial analyst advertised pay all rose significantly locally this month, indicating that whatever economic momentum exists in El Paso is concentrated in healthcare, education, and skilled technical work rather than trade and logistics."}, {"headline": "Federal presence remains a stabilizing, not expansionary, force.", "body": "Fort Bliss and other federal employment continue to anchor the metro's labor base, but with national government payrolls contracting by 216,000 over the past year, public-sector stability locally should not be read as a growth signal."}], "local_conditions": "El Paso's unemployment rate held at 4.8% through August, a full percentage point above the Texas rate of 4.0%, as the metro's historically public-sector-and-trade-heavy base continues to absorb slower border-adjacent logistics activity alongside steady federal employment anchored by Fort Bliss. Warehouse, delivery, and manufacturing-assembly pay in the metro have moved down this month even as Texas manufacturing wages statewide climbed 4.8% over the year, pointing to a local divergence between border-corridor goods-movement work and the broader state's industrial expansion.", "implications": "Local gaps between El Paso's softening warehouse and manufacturing pay and Texas's strengthening statewide industrial wage growth suggest El Paso's goods-movement sector is underperforming its state peers, a signal commerce leaders and economic development officials may want to weigh when assessing the metro's competitiveness for logistics and cross-border trade investment. Meanwhile, sharp advertised-pay gains in registered nursing, teaching, financial analysis, and software engineering indicate the metro's growth is concentrated in skilled professional and public-service work rather than broad-based goods-handling employment. Consider evaluating whether current regional economic development messaging still accurately reflects where El Paso's genuine wage and hiring momentum sits, rather than assuming parity with statewide industrial trends.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Whether El Paso's unemployment gap versus the state (4.8% vs 4.0%) narrows or widens as September data releases, given Texas's upward-revised 2026 job growth forecast of 2.0%."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Continued softening in warehouse and manufacturing-assembly advertised pay locally, against a backdrop of statewide manufacturing acceleration, raises a question for economic development leaders about whether cross-border logistics investment is bypassing El Paso in favor of other Texas corridors."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "National WARN filings have pulled back year over year (163,000 affected workers in 2026 vs 261,800 in 2025), and Texas logistics/manufacturing layoffs remain the most-affected sectors statewide \u2014 worth tracking whether any filings surface in the El Paso corridor specifically."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Texas labor force participation (63.7%) continues to outpace the national rate (62.2%), and local observers should watch whether El Paso's own participation trend moves with or against that state pattern as new county-level data becomes available."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22841.0, "metro_p50": 27040.0, "metro_p75": 31114.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 20977.0, "metro_p50": 24960.0, "metro_p75": 26223.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25396.75, "metro_p50": 29630.8, "metro_p75": 32760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52432.0, "metro_p50": 80069.0, "metro_p75": 91000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25786.0, "metro_p50": 27784.0, "metro_p75": 30805.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26381.75, "metro_p50": 33830.0, "metro_p75": 34725.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53040.0, "metro_p50": 62916.4, "metro_p75": 72800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25837.0, "metro_p50": 27262.0, "metro_p75": 30680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29640.0, "metro_p50": 34227.0, "metro_p75": 36858.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24992.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 41080.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29017.0, "metro_p50": 33197.4, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27720.0, "metro_p50": 33561.4, "metro_p75": 36780.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52000.0, "metro_p50": 58282.0, "metro_p75": 62475.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 81419.0, "metro_p50": 103238.6, "metro_p75": 111880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 91284.0, "metro_p50": 140062.8, "metro_p75": 149950.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 104086.0, "metro_p50": 120652.0, "metro_p75": 136500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48998.0, "metro_p50": 59390.0, "metro_p75": 67484.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63911.0, "metro_p50": 82382.0, "metro_p75": 85336.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46712.0, "metro_p50": 62846.0, "metro_p75": 80120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36875.0, "metro_p50": 46800.0, "metro_p75": 54550.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70000.0, "metro_p50": 83711.8, "metro_p75": 98390.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29657.0, "metro_p50": 57348.0, "metro_p75": 61090.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62500.0, "metro_p50": 87450.0, "metro_p75": 90000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 48368.0, "metro_p50": 70236.8, "metro_p75": 81507.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 74362.0, "metro_p50": 82177.0, "metro_p75": 88184.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 72583.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 80425.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 32256.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 46115.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 62284.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 50000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 46435.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 77655.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 27040.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 64942.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "el-paso-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "el-paso-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "el-paso-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:50:19.015021+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/el-paso-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/el-paso-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}