{"schema_version": 1, "id": "durham-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 130, "label": "Durham, NC MSA", "slug": "durham-nc-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:38:41.295508+00:00", "headline": "Durham holds steady as state labor pool quietly thins.", "headline_summary": "Durham-Chapel Hill's unemployment sits near 3.4%, well under the national 4.1%, even as North Carolina's labor force participation rate falls to 57.8% and shrinks by roughly 70,000 workers statewide.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Durham MSA unemployment rate", "value": "3.4%", "context": "vs. 4.1% U.S., 3.5% NC statewide"}, {"label": "NC labor force participation", "value": "57.8%", "context": "Down 1.6 pts YoY, tied for 45th nationally"}, {"label": "National wage growth vs. inflation", "value": "3.0% vs 3.4%", "context": "First sustained real-wage gap since 2021"}, {"label": "NC WARN notices, 2026 YTD", "value": "61 notices / 5,753 workers", "context": "Concentrated in manufacturing, logistics, healthcare"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Low metro unemployment masks a shrinking labor pool.", "body": "North Carolina's labor force contracted by roughly 70,000 people over the year amid falling participation, a trend playing out against Durham's historically tight 3.4% jobless rate. A metro can show strong headline numbers while its practical labor supply is quietly thinning."}, {"headline": "Durham's knowledge-sector tilt is a buffer, not an immunity.", "body": "Healthcare practitioner and computer/mathematical occupations each occupy a share of Durham employment far above the national average, which helped the metro avoid the national information-sector pullback. That concentration also means any downturn in tech or health system activity would hit Durham harder than a more diversified peer metro."}, {"headline": "State wage gains are outrunning inflation, but unevenly.", "body": "North Carolina's average hourly wage rose 3.6% year-over-year in Q1, ahead of national inflation, yet state officials note the gains are increasingly uneven across income levels. Aggregate wage strength can coexist with weakening purchasing power for a meaningful share of the local workforce."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing and logistics carry outsized layoff exposure statewide.", "body": "North Carolina's 61 WARN notices this year concentrate in manufacturing (34 notices, 3,444 workers) and transportation/logistics (23 notices, 1,442 workers), sectors with a real but smaller footprint in Durham than in the state overall. Commerce leaders should track whether this pattern extends into the Triangle's logistics and advanced-manufacturing corridor."}], "local_conditions": "Durham-Chapel Hill's unemployment rate held near 3.4% as of the most recent published metro data, running well below the national 4.1-4.2% reading, a gap consistent with the area's concentration in healthcare and computer/mathematical occupations, which together outweigh national employment shares by wide margins. North Carolina's statewide labor force participation rate fell to 57.8%, tied for 45th nationally and down 1.6 points year-over-year, a demographic headwind that appears to reflect slowing population growth rather than a sudden pullback tied to any single Durham-area event.", "implications": "Statewide wage-vs-inflation data shows wages outpacing consumer prices through 2025, but national figures for September show average hourly earnings growth of 3.0% trailing 3.4% inflation, suggesting Durham's real purchasing-power cushion may be narrowing even where local unemployment remains low. Commerce leaders evaluating expansion or investment timing should weigh the metro's structural strength in knowledge-sector employment against a statewide participation decline that could tighten the available local workforce pool over time. Current conditions suggest monitoring quarterly county-level wage data alongside state participation trends before treating low local unemployment as a standalone signal of expansion readiness.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected", "body": "North Carolina's next monthly labor force report will show whether the statewide participation slide (57.8%, down 1.6 points year-over-year) extends into the Triangle specifically, a figure not yet broken out at the metro level this cycle."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "National wage growth cooling to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation marks the first sustained real-wage decline in two years; watch whether Durham's Q1 2026 pace of 3.6% wage growth holds or converges toward the weaker national trend in upcoming county wage data."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Statewide WARN filings remain concentrated in manufacturing and logistics; any filing activity touching the Triangle's distribution or advanced-manufacturing base would be an early signal worth flagging for commerce and workforce boards."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National payroll growth of just 29,000 in September, with downward revisions to July and August, raises the question of whether Durham's healthcare- and tech-heavy base can keep outperforming a slowing national hiring trend into year-end."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24375.0, "metro_p50": 30160.0, "metro_p75": 34195.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23188.0, "metro_p50": 27902.0, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30703.25, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53560.0, "metro_p50": 76369.0, "metro_p75": 85800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29054.0, "metro_p50": 31160.0, "metro_p75": 36134.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32027.5, "metro_p50": 40082.4, "metro_p75": 41502.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56160.0, "metro_p50": 66396.2, "metro_p75": 72800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31721.0, "metro_p50": 37856.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32490.0, "metro_p50": 37332.0, "metro_p75": 39226.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26613.5, "metro_p50": 29948.0, "metro_p75": 34045.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33806.5, "metro_p50": 41798.0, "metro_p75": 45532.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59280.0, "metro_p50": 66342.6, "metro_p75": 67667.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 83488.75, "metro_p50": 97912.0, "metro_p75": 105800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 125319.25, "metro_p50": 160125.0, "metro_p75": 178034.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 98792.0, "metro_p50": 126774.0, "metro_p75": 145615.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59626.0, "metro_p50": 67023.2, "metro_p75": 75000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 77197.0, "metro_p50": 91838.2, "metro_p75": 96796.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57972.0, "metro_p50": 65055.0, "metro_p75": 73390.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53204.75, "metro_p50": 62655.0, "metro_p75": 77278.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 63665.0, "metro_p50": 83364.0, "metro_p75": 89625.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35942.0, "metro_p50": 50198.0, "metro_p75": 55180.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 68432.0, "metro_p50": 99376.0, "metro_p75": 119904.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 51195.0, "metro_p50": 59000.0, "metro_p75": 81142.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 83223.0, "metro_p50": 104672.8, "metro_p75": 115773.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 62906.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 136126.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 37606.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 61722.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 134750.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 55097.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 70054.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 63326.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 33280.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 68575.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "durham-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "durham-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "durham-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:50:15.421478+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/durham-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/durham-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}