{"schema_version": 1, "id": "duluth-mn-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 224, "label": "Duluth, MN-WI MSA", "slug": "duluth-mn-wi-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:31:11.308806+00:00", "headline": "Duluth unemployment outpaces the nation as healthcare props up jobs.", "headline_summary": "Duluth metro unemployment hit 5.2% in August \u2014 a full point above the national 4.1% rate \u2014 while Health Care & Social Assistance grew 6.5% to become the region's largest single employment pillar.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Duluth MSA unemployment", "value": "5.2%", "context": "vs 4.1% national, up 0.6pt year-over-year"}, {"label": "St. Louis County unemployment", "value": "5.4%", "context": "vs 4.0% a year ago in the county"}, {"label": "Duluth metro nonfarm employment", "value": "-0.9%", "context": "Year-over-year change through May 2026"}, {"label": "St. Louis County average weekly wage", "value": "$1,257", "context": "Up 3.2% year-over-year, Q1 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Duluth's unemployment gap with the nation is widening.", "body": "Metro unemployment at 5.2% sits a full point above the national 4.1% rate, and the 0.6-point year-over-year increase outpaces the national trend. That divergence suggests local structural factors are weighing on the Duluth labor market specifically, alongside national cyclical softness."}, {"headline": "Healthcare is carrying the region's job growth almost alone.", "body": "Health Care & Social Assistance added jobs at 6.5% growth to reach 33,864 positions, the metro's largest employment base, while total nonfarm employment fell 0.9% over the same period. A local economy this dependent on one sector's expansion carries higher exposure if healthcare hiring demand cools."}, {"headline": "Wage gains are outrunning the metro's weak jobs numbers.", "body": "St. Louis County average weekly wages rose 3.2% to $1,257 even as county employment fell 0.7% and unemployment rose \u2014 an unusual pairing that may suggest employers are raising pay for a shrinking, more selective pool of filled positions, a dynamic distinct from broad-based labor market strength."}, {"headline": "A meaningful share of metro jobs still pay below $17 an hour.", "body": "About 12% of Duluth-area jobs fall under that threshold, with Food Prep & Serving Related work at a $14.56 median \u2014 a reminder that wage-vs-inflation erosion lands hardest on frontline service workers already facing Minnesota's statewide real-wage decline."}], "local_conditions": "Duluth MSA unemployment climbed to 5.2% in August 2026, a 0.6 percentage point rise from a year earlier, while St. Louis County's rate of 5.4% now trails the national average by a full percentage point and the state average by nearly a point. Total nonfarm employment in the metro fell 0.9% year-over-year through May even as Health Care & Social Assistance expanded 6.5% to 33,864 jobs, pointing to a labor market where softness is broad but unevenly distributed across sectors.", "implications": "Rising unemployment alongside wage growth of 3.2% for St. Louis County (average weekly wage $1,257) suggests the metro's labor market slack has yet to translate into broad pay deceleration, a combination that complicates read-throughs on local consumer spending power for commerce leaders weighing expansion timing. Healthcare's continued growth against contraction elsewhere signals a local economy increasingly dependent on a single sector's momentum, a concentration risk worth factoring into any assessment of Duluth's near-term commercial resilience. Current conditions suggest economic development leaders consider tracking sector concentration alongside headline employment figures when briefing stakeholders on metro health.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "St. Louis County unemployment has moved from 4.0% to 5.4% year-over-year \u2014 track whether the November DEED release shows this stabilizing or continuing to climb relative to the state's 4.5% figure."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Minnesota's labor force participation rate fell to 66.7% amid state economist commentary linking the decline to immigration enforcement activity; any similar participation drop in St. Louis County would compound existing employment softness."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Healthcare's 6.5% regional growth rate makes it the metro's single largest swing factor \u2014 a slowdown in Health Care & Social Assistance hiring demand, measured through job ads, a signal of hiring demand where one ad often covers several openings, would remove the sector currently offsetting losses elsewhere."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Statewide WARN notices affecting manufacturing, retail and healthcare fell 69% year-to-date in 2026, a signal worth cross-checking against any new Duluth-area filings to see if the local trend matches the state's improvement."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25033.0, "metro_p50": 31837.0, "metro_p75": 35210.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28080.0, "metro_p50": 31789.8, "metro_p75": 33498.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34683.0, "metro_p50": 40000.0, "metro_p75": 42000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57673.0, "metro_p50": 81122.0, "metro_p75": 97500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29996.75, "metro_p50": 34791.0, "metro_p75": 41797.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39520.0, "metro_p50": 44563.0, "metro_p75": 45291.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72104.0, "metro_p50": 86622.0, "metro_p75": 88785.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 46956.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 37952.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28080.0, "metro_p50": 33590.4, "metro_p75": 36317.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38480.0, "metro_p50": 46613.0, "metro_p75": 50887.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28681.5, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 46800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56160.0, "metro_p50": 79000.0, "metro_p75": 81120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79379.5, "metro_p50": 94326.0, "metro_p75": 104759.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 106397.75, "metro_p50": 126477.8, "metro_p75": 134131.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 89436.0, "metro_p50": 100276.0, "metro_p75": 104459.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57758.5, "metro_p50": 66126.0, "metro_p75": 71000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 71492.75, "metro_p50": 80093.0, "metro_p75": 91618.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55000.0, "metro_p50": 66829.0, "metro_p75": 80464.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48420.0, "metro_p50": 60320.0, "metro_p75": 60833.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 67000.0, "metro_p50": 115506.6, "metro_p75": 121770.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34289.5, "metro_p50": 44564.0, "metro_p75": 54106.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67792.0, "metro_p50": 90000.0, "metro_p75": 101212.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 69123.5, "metro_p50": 89169.0, "metro_p75": 89169.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 75500.0, "metro_p50": 92805.0, "metro_p75": 93474.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 63417.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 73228.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 38452.5, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 46384.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 66835.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 61675.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 60320.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 58039.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 35360.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 67973.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "duluth-mn-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "duluth-mn-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "duluth-mn-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:21:15.381464+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/duluth-mn-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/duluth-mn-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}