{"schema_version": 1, "id": "duluth-mn-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 224, "label": "Duluth, MN-WI MSA", "slug": "duluth-mn-wi-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:38:36.757962+00:00", "headline": "Duluth's labor market cools as the workforce itself shrinks.", "headline_summary": "Metro unemployment climbed to 4.5% in June while Minnesota's labor force participation rate fell for an eighth straight month to 66.9%, suggesting the region's slowdown is as much about who's available to work as who's hiring.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Duluth MSA unemployment", "value": "4.5%", "context": "Up from 4.9% in April 2026 (preliminary)"}, {"label": "MN labor force participation", "value": "66.9%", "context": "Down from 68.1% a year ago, falling every month"}, {"label": "National wage vs. inflation gap", "value": "3.0% vs 3.4%", "context": "Weakest wage growth since May 2021"}, {"label": "Minnesota WARN-affected workers", "value": "1,473", "context": "Down 69% from 2025 levels"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Duluth's unemployment drift is a demand story, not a supply shock.", "body": "Metro unemployment climbed from 4.9% in April to 4.5% by June on a preliminary basis, while employment fell from 132.5 to 131.9 thousand \u2014 a modest but consistent erosion. This tracks the state's own stall in August job growth, suggesting the metro is following a regional cooling trend rather than diverging locally."}, {"headline": "Trade and transport pay softness breaks from the national pattern.", "body": "Electrician and HVAC technician advertised pay fell locally by significant and moderate margins respectively even as national pay for both rose \u2014 a reversal of the usual metro premium. Commerce leaders evaluating capital projects or construction timing should treat this as a local demand signal, not a cost-saving opportunity, since it likely reflects thinner project pipelines rather than labor abundance."}, {"headline": "Participation decline looks structural, not seasonal.", "body": "Minnesota's labor force participation rate has fallen every month in 2026, from 68.1% to 66.9%, a pattern DEED links to an aging population and immigration enforcement's chilling effect on workforce availability. A shrinking available workforce, independent of local hiring appetite, constrains how much any uptick in local demand can translate into output or expansion."}, {"headline": "Healthcare pay strength stands apart from a generally softening metro.", "body": "Registered nurse advertised pay rose moderately locally even as the broader metro showed wage softness across trade, logistics, and tech roles. This divergence is consistent with healthcare's position as one of the few sectors adding jobs nationally and statewide, reinforcing its role as a stabilizing force in the local economy."}], "local_conditions": "Duluth MSA unemployment rose to 4.5% in June 2026 (preliminary), extending a softening trend from 4.9% in April, as metro employment slipped from 132.5 thousand to 131.9 thousand over the same period. Softening appears consistent with statewide forces \u2014 Minnesota's labor force participation rate has fallen every month this year to 66.9%, which DEED's commissioner attributes partly to an aging population and a chilling effect on immigrant workforce participation following stepped-up immigration enforcement earlier in 2026.", "implications": "Cooling metro employment alongside a shrinking labor pool points to a local economy constrained more by labor supply than by weak demand, a distinction that matters for commerce leaders weighing expansion timing against workforce availability. Advertised pay softening across several metro trade and transport roles \u2014 CDL drivers, electricians, HVAC technicians \u2014 while national figures for the same categories hold or rise suggests Duluth-specific demand cooling rather than a national pattern. Current conditions suggest monitoring St. Louis County participation data alongside regional job postings before treating any single month's softness as a durable signal of contraction.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Data gap ahead", "body": "September 2026 BLS figures for the Duluth MSA will not publish until late October, leaving commerce leaders reliant on June data for now. Watch Minnesota DEED's regional releases and Duluth Chamber announcements for earlier directional signals."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Minnesota's labor force participation has fallen for eight consecutive months; whether this stabilizes or continues declining will shape how much local demand growth can convert into actual output gains. A continued slide would tighten available labor even amid soft hiring."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National wage growth has slipped to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation, the weakest pace since 2021 \u2014 if this gap persists, consumer spending momentum in Duluth's retail and service sectors could soften further. Local advertised pay in customer-facing roles (retail, food service) has stayed flat, offering an early read on whether the metro follows the national pattern."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Minnesota WARN filings affected 69% fewer workers in 2026 than 2025, a reassuring signal, but national WARN activity remains elevated with Amazon, Meta, and Oracle among frequent filers. Any announcement affecting Duluth-area logistics or manufacturing operations tied to national parent companies merits close tracking given the metro's smaller absorption capacity."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25316.75, "metro_p50": 31907.0, "metro_p75": 35568.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28080.0, "metro_p50": 32428.8, "metro_p75": 33509.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34683.0, "metro_p50": 40000.0, "metro_p75": 42000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57034.5, "metro_p50": 75909.0, "metro_p75": 94549.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30265.0, "metro_p50": 34791.0, "metro_p75": 40894.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39000.0, "metro_p50": 42640.0, "metro_p75": 45291.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72103.0, "metro_p50": 83041.0, "metro_p75": 88774.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35746.0, "metro_p50": 43494.8, "metro_p75": 45566.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35068.5, "metro_p50": 37955.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27040.0, "metro_p50": 32577.6, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37708.75, "metro_p50": 45094.0, "metro_p75": 49920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28245.75, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 46800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60362.0, "metro_p50": 75907.2, "metro_p75": 81120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79485.75, "metro_p50": 93840.0, "metro_p75": 104000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 106000.0, "metro_p50": 127764.2, "metro_p75": 136047.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 89270.75, "metro_p50": 96965.6, "metro_p75": 108332.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57993.0, "metro_p50": 65309.6, "metro_p75": 71000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 71567.0, "metro_p50": 80055.8, "metro_p75": 91022.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52500.0, "metro_p50": 65000.0, "metro_p75": 78642.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54274.0, "metro_p50": 61347.0, "metro_p75": 63932.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 67000.0, "metro_p50": 94332.4, "metro_p75": 97330.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34131.75, "metro_p50": 43846.0, "metro_p75": 54374.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 70000.0, "metro_p50": 90000.0, "metro_p75": 101389.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 56953.0, "metro_p50": 75000.0, "metro_p75": 89169.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 75500.0, "metro_p50": 93474.0, "metro_p75": 101011.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 61355.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 73416.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 37440.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 47840.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 72275.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 60000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 59582.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 57149.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 36400.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 68406.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "duluth-mn-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "duluth-mn-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "duluth-mn-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:50:13.793334+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/duluth-mn-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/duluth-mn-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}