{"schema_version": 1, "id": "duluth-mn-wi-msa/human-resources/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 224, "label": "Duluth, MN-WI MSA", "slug": "duluth-mn-wi-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "human_resources", "slug": "human-resources", "label": "Human Resources"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T02:12:09.274102+00:00", "headline": "Duluth unemployment outpaces state and nation as wages diverge.", "headline_summary": "Duluth metro unemployment hit 5.2% in August, a full point above the national 4.1% rate, while St. Louis County wages rose 3.2% to $1,257 weekly even as metro employment contracted 0.9% year-over-year.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Duluth MSA unemployment", "value": "5.2%", "context": "vs 4.5% Minnesota, 4.1% national (Aug 2026)"}, {"label": "Metro nonfarm employment change", "value": "-0.9%", "context": "Year-over-year as of May 2026"}, {"label": "St. Louis County avg weekly wage", "value": "$1,257", "context": "Up 3.2% YoY, Q1 2026"}, {"label": "Share of metro jobs below $17/hr", "value": "12%", "context": "Food Prep & Serving median $14.56/hr"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Duluth's labor market is loosening faster than the state's.", "body": "Metro unemployment at 5.2% sits a full point above the national rate and 0.7 points above Minnesota's 4.5%, while nonfarm employment fell 0.9% year-over-year. A softer local labor market may ease recruiting difficulty for some roles even as overall economic activity contracts."}, {"headline": "Wage gains are real but concentrated in specific sectors.", "body": "St. Louis County weekly wages rose 3.2% to $1,257 even as statewide wages stayed flat against 3.7% inflation. Local gains appear tied to specific sectors like healthcare, reflecting targeted pay increases rather than a metro-wide tightening of labor supply."}, {"headline": "HR Coordinator and Payroll Specialist pay point to internal HR function growth.", "body": "HR Coordinator advertised pay rose significantly to $64,060, well above the $50,460 national median, and Payroll Specialist climbed to $65,520 locally versus $61,103 nationally. Local employers appear to be investing in HR administrative capacity even as broader hiring contracts \u2014 worth benchmarking against internal headcount plans."}, {"headline": "HR Business Partner pay diverges sharply from the national trend.", "body": "Metro HRBP pay fell to $67,636 while the national median climbed to $83,900, a gap of over $16,000. Organizations recruiting HRBP talent locally may face a widening disconnect with national compensation expectations, risking both recruitment and retention of strategic HR talent."}], "local_conditions": "Duluth MSA unemployment climbed to 5.2% in August 2026, up 0.6 points year-over-year and running well above both the Minnesota rate of 4.5% and the national rate of 4.1%, while total nonfarm employment in the metro fell 0.9% year-over-year as of May 2026. St. Louis County average weekly wages rose 3.2% in Q1 2026 to $1,257, a gain that outpaces the state's flat wage trend but still trails behind regional cost pressure, suggesting employers are raising pay selectively even as headcount contracts.", "implications": "Rising unemployment paired with contracting payrolls signals a metro where labor supply is loosening even as wage data shows pockets of upward pressure \u2014 a pattern that calls for role-by-role compensation review instead of blanket hiring freezes or blanket raises. Health Care & Social Assistance expanded 6.5% and now anchors regional employment at nearly 34,000 jobs, while roughly 12% of metro jobs pay below $17/hour, concentrating retention risk among frontline and entry-tier workers least protected from inflation. Consider reviewing compensation structures role-by-role, prioritizing retention investment in sectors still expanding headcount.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Duluth unemployment has risen for multiple consecutive months while statewide labor force participation ticks down to 66.7%. Watch whether shrinking labor supply offsets rising unemployment in ways that keep frontline recruiting difficult despite a looser headline number."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "3M filed a Minnesota WARN notice in October and statewide WARN activity remains concentrated in manufacturing, retail and healthcare. Track whether any regional displacement reaches the Duluth candidate pool given the metro's reliance on healthcare-sector hiring."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "St. Louis County wage growth of 3.2% stands out against flat statewide wages, concentrated in a shrinking employment base. Confirm whether this reflects strong pay competition or a compositional effect from job losses among lower-wage roles."}, {"category": "Expected", "body": "National pay transparency requirements are expanding in Connecticut, Maryland and New Jersey this month, alongside a DOL shift to a Core Factors independent contractor test. Minnesota employers with remote or multi-state workers should confirm job posting and contractor classification practices remain compliant."}], "roles": [{"role": "Compensation Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 79994.5, "metro_p50": 107909.0, "metro_p75": 120000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 100798.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Business Partner", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55000.0, "metro_p50": 67636.0, "metro_p75": 80464.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 83900.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Benefits Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 78750.0, "metro_p50": 118062.6, "metro_p75": 129976.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 118618.2, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HRIS Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 83305.5, "metro_p50": 95000.0, "metro_p75": 104839.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 95000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Coordinator", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46658.5, "metro_p50": 64060.0, "metro_p75": 70871.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 50460.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Recruiter", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52575.5, "metro_p50": 65907.4, "metro_p75": 88421.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 67234.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Payroll Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53470.0, "metro_p50": 65520.0, "metro_p75": 75490.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 61103.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "USA Facts / BLS", "source_url": null, "statement": "Duluth MSA unemployment rate reached 5.2% in August 2026"}, {"source_name": "BLS federal data, reported via Howie Hanson", "source_url": null, "statement": "Total nonfarm employment in Duluth metro fell 0.9% year-over-year"}, {"source_name": "Duluth Workforce Development Board Strategic Plan", "source_url": null, "statement": "Health Care & Social Assistance grew 6.5%, reaching 33,864 jobs"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "St. Louis County average weekly wage rose 3.2% to $1,257 in Q1 2026"}, {"source_name": "Minnesota DEED", "source_url": null, "statement": "3M Company filed a Minnesota WARN notice on 10/19/2026"}, {"source_name": "Red Lake Nation News / DEED", "source_url": null, "statement": "Minnesota statewide labor force participation fell to 66.7%"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "duluth-mn-wi-msa/human-resources/2026-10.html", "pdf": "duluth-mn-wi-msa/human-resources/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:21:14.077661+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/duluth-mn-wi-msa/human-resources/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/duluth-mn-wi-msa/human-resources/2026-10.pdf"}