{"schema_version": 1, "id": "dubuque-ia-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 122, "label": "Dubuque, IA MSA", "slug": "dubuque-ia-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T06:28:49.035112+00:00", "headline": "Dubuque restaurant pay splits sharply between front and back of house.", "headline_summary": "Server and Crew advertised pay rose significantly in Dubuque this month while Line Cook pay fell to $33,280, nearly $4,100 below the national median, as metro unemployment held near 3.3%.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Dubuque MSA unemployment", "value": "3.1%-3.3%", "context": "vs 4.1% U.S., 3.2% Iowa statewide"}, {"label": "Iowa accommodation & food services jobs", "value": "+1,400", "context": "Led all private sectors, September 2026"}, {"label": "National restaurant turnover rate", "value": "~80%", "context": "Up from 72% pre-pandemic benchmark"}, {"label": "Dubuque non-farm employment", "value": "62,200", "context": "Record high, June 2026, +1,200 y/y"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Front-of-house pay is pulling away from back-of-house in Dubuque.", "body": "Server (+significant), Crew (+significant) and Shift Manager (+significant) advertised pay all moved up locally this month, while Line Cook pay fell and sits roughly $4,100 below the national median. Operators relying on tip-supported FOH roles to absorb wage competition may be underpricing the kitchen talent that's structurally harder to replace."}, {"headline": "Tipped wage deregulation lands at a convenient moment for Iowa operators.", "body": "DOL's October withdrawal of the federal 80/20 rule removes the 20% cap on non-tip-producing side work paid at the $2.13-equivalent tipped rate, giving Iowa operators (tipped cash wage $4.35) more flexibility to schedule FOH staff for prep and cleaning without pushing total labor cost higher. This arrives as local Server pay is already rising, which may help offset the increase for some operators."}, {"headline": "Catering Manager pay drop may reflect a role in transition.", "body": "Local Catering Manager advertised pay fell significantly to $30,690, nearly $19,400 below the national median of $50,076 \u2014 a gap wide enough to suggest either a thin local sample or a role being restructured toward smaller event formats. Worth confirming before using this figure to anchor any new posting."}, {"headline": "Record metro employment means restaurants are hiring against full-economy competition.", "body": "Dubuque's 62,200 non-farm jobs and sub-3.3% unemployment mean restaurant openings compete directly with manufacturing and healthcare, both forecast to grow through 2035. Advertised pay increases across most FOH roles this month are consistent with operators bidding against a labor pool with more alternatives than a year ago."}], "local_conditions": "Dubuque MSA employment reached a record 62,200 non-farm jobs in June 2026, with unemployment at 3.1%-3.3% through mid-year \u2014 tighter than Iowa's 3.2% statewide rate and well below the national 4.1%. Accommodation and food services led all private-sector job gains statewide in September with 1,400 new positions, signaling restaurant hiring is accelerating into Q4 even as a historically tight regional labor pool, intensified by roughly 200 Iowans retiring daily statewide, constrains the candidate pipeline for both front- and back-of-house roles.", "implications": "Record-tight local labor supply combined with Iowa's frozen $7.25 minimum wage and $4.35 tipped cash wage means restaurant operators are competing almost entirely on advertised pay and total rewards, with statutory wage floors playing little role in that competition, and Dubuque's divergent local movements \u2014 Server and Crew pay up significantly while Line Cook and Catering Manager pay fell \u2014 suggest front-of-house roles are absorbing most of the competitive pressure this cycle. With national restaurant turnover near 80% and 70% of operators reporting hard-to-fill openings, labor cost as a share of revenue is increasingly a function of retention, with wage-floor compliance playing a smaller role. Consider reviewing whether back-of-house pay, particularly for Line Cook roles where local advertised pay sits meaningfully below the national median, is keeping pace with the staffing difficulty BLS projects for cook occupations nationally.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected data release", "body": "Iowa Workforce Development's October employment report, including the accommodation and food services breakout, publishes November 19. Watch whether September's 1,400-job sector gain continued or was a one-month seasonal spike."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Approximately 75,000 Iowans retired between July 2025 and July 2026, a pace of over 200 per day statewide. Dubuque restaurant operators should watch whether this accelerates exits among experienced shift leads and managers, a group already showing significant local pay gains."}, {"category": "Policy to monitor", "body": "Federal 80/20 rule withdrawal just took effect in October; watch whether Iowa restaurant employers adjust FOH scheduling practices or posted pay structures in response over the next two pay cycles."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Line Cook advertised pay fell moderately in Dubuque while BLS projects 12% national growth in cook employment through 2035. A continued local-national gap could widen hiring difficulty for back-of-house roles heading into holiday-season volume."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34320.0, "metro_p50": 39563.0, "metro_p75": 42120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39211.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 29397.0, "metro_p50": 30690.4, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 50076.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24636.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 47173.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 30066.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29178.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 37421.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54672.0, "metro_p50": 57648.0, "metro_p75": 65000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 59724.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26595.5, "metro_p50": 33392.2, "metro_p75": 34609.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 35024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27815.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "Telegraph Herald", "source_url": null, "statement": "Dubuque MSA reached record 62,200 non-farm jobs in June 2026"}, {"source_name": "Iowa Workforce Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "Iowa accommodation and food services added 1,400 jobs in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Restaurant industry labor research notes", "source_url": null, "statement": "National restaurant turnover near 80%, 70% report hard-to-fill openings"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "DOL withdrew federal 80/20 tipped wage rule in October 2026"}, {"source_name": "Business Record", "source_url": null, "statement": "~75,000 Iowans retired between July 2025 and July 2026"}, {"source_name": "BLS / Iowa Workforce Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "Dubuque County unemployment 2.4%-3.3% range through mid-2026"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "dubuque-ia-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "pdf": "dubuque-ia-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:21:13.282852+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/dubuque-ia-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/dubuque-ia-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}