{"schema_version": 1, "id": "dubuque-ia-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 122, "label": "Dubuque, IA MSA", "slug": "dubuque-ia-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:32:58.129887+00:00", "headline": "Dubuque's entry-level restaurant pay outpaces a softening mid-tier.", "headline_summary": "Crew pay in Dubuque climbed significantly while Catering Manager pay fell to $29,557 \u2014 nearly $21,000 below the national median \u2014 even as the metro's 3.3% unemployment stays well under the 4.1% national rate.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Dubuque unemployment rate", "value": "3.3%", "context": "vs 4.1% national, July 2026"}, {"label": "Iowa food services hiring", "value": "+1,000 jobs", "context": "August 2026, 6th gain in 7 months"}, {"label": "National restaurant job openings", "value": "673,000", "context": "down from 916,000 start of 2026"}, {"label": "Iowa tipped minimum wage", "value": "$4.35/hr", "context": "Unchanged since 2008"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Entry-level FOH pay is outrunning the rest of the menu.", "body": "Crew pay rose significantly and Server pay moved up moderately in Dubuque even as national figures for both roles held stable, suggesting local competition for hourly shift coverage is sharper than the national picture implies. Staffing plans built on national benchmarks may understate what it actually takes to fill these shifts locally."}, {"headline": "Catering Manager pay collapse looks like a market correction, not a trend.", "body": "Metro advertised pay for Catering Manager fell significantly to $29,557, nearly $21,000 below the national median of $50,960 \u2014 a gap wide enough to suggest thin local posting volume or role misclassification rather than a genuine demand shift. Treat this figure cautiously until more postings confirm the pattern."}, {"headline": "Iowa's hiring rebound is real, but it's concentrated, not broad.", "body": "The state's accommodation and food services sector added 1,000 jobs in August and has gained in six of the last seven months, but the gains are credited specifically to drinking places and fast food \u2014 a signal that full-service and catering operations may not be benefiting equally. Workforce planning should distinguish segment, not assume industry-wide loosening."}, {"headline": "A frozen tipped wage floor keeps Iowa's labor cost math unusually stable.", "body": "With the state tipped minimum unchanged at $4.35 since 2008 and no legislative movement expected, Dubuque operators face none of the compounding step-increase pressure now hitting states like Florida. That stability is a planning advantage, but it also means advertised pay \u2014 not statutory floors \u2014 is the only lever moving local labor cost."}], "local_conditions": "Dubuque's 3.3% July unemployment rate and 58,700 non-farm payroll count reflect a labor market still tighter than the national 4.1% reading, even as Iowa's accommodation and food services sector posted a second consecutive month of hiring gains in August after a weak spring. That recovery, layered atop a frozen $7.25 state minimum wage and $4.35 tipped floor, means Dubuque operators are competing for workers primarily on advertised pay and scheduling rather than any pending statutory wage floor relief.", "implications": "Crew and Server advertised pay climbing locally while Catering Manager and Line Cook pay softens points to a bifurcated market \u2014 operators are bidding up entry-level FOH roles to fill shifts while mid-skill and salaried positions face less urgency, likely reflecting the statewide rebound in fast food and drinking-place hiring rather than full-service growth. Labor cost as a share of revenue will be shaped more by which roles you're staffing than by any blanket wage trend this quarter. Consider reviewing shift-level pay data by role category rather than applying a single across-the-board adjustment, since entry-level FOH tightness and mid-tier softness call for different responses.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected", "body": "Iowa's seasonal staffing rebound in accommodation and food services typically extends into Q4 holiday demand; watch whether Dubuque's FOH pay gains hold or ease as the candidate pool normalizes post-back-to-school."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "National job openings in accommodation and food services fell from 916,000 to 673,000 through July, easing competition for workers broadly \u2014 confirm whether that national loosening is showing up in Dubuque applicant volume or whether local tightness (3.3% unemployment) is insulating the metro from the trend."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Manufacturing remains Dubuque's wage-growth and layoff-risk wildcard, following prior John Deere Dubuque Works reductions; any further manufacturing layoffs could push displaced workers into restaurant applicant pools, a dynamic worth monitoring for BOH hiring specifically."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Catering Manager's wide metro-national pay gap warrants a second look next month \u2014 if the figure persists rather than correcting, it may reflect a genuine retrenchment in local event and catering demand rather than a data anomaly."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32821.0, "metro_p50": 39534.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39000.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 29397.0, "metro_p50": 29557.0, "metro_p75": 36422.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 50960.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24444.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 29839.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29696.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 36826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 51536.0, "metro_p50": 57500.0, "metro_p75": 65000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 59618.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26595.0, "metro_p50": 31979.0, "metro_p75": 34267.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 35012.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27815.0, "metro_p50": 34050.4, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 32731.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "dubuque-ia-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "pdf": "dubuque-ia-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:50:12.583365+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/dubuque-ia-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/dubuque-ia-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}