{"schema_version": 1, "id": "dubuque-ia-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 122, "label": "Dubuque, IA MSA", "slug": "dubuque-ia-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:35:26.170451+00:00", "headline": "Dubuque hits record employment while its labor pool shrinks.", "headline_summary": "Dubuque MSA employment reached a record 62,200 in June even as Iowa's labor force participation rate fell to 66.9% from 67.8%, raising the question of how much further local growth can run without more workers.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Dubuque MSA nonfarm employment", "value": "62,200", "context": "Record high, June 2026, +1,200 YoY"}, {"label": "Dubuque County unemployment", "value": "2.4%", "context": "vs 3.2% Iowa, 4.1% U.S."}, {"label": "Iowa labor force participation", "value": "66.9%", "context": "Down from 67.8% a year earlier"}, {"label": "Iowa average weekly wage", "value": "$1,065", "context": "Down 1.7% YoY amid 3.7% national CPI"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Record employment is colliding with a shrinking labor pool.", "body": "MSA nonfarm payrolls hit an all-time high of 62,200 in June, yet Iowa's labor force participation rate fell to 66.9% from 67.8% a year earlier, concentrated among workers aged 45-54. A metro posting job growth while the available workforce contracts points to a structural ceiling on how much further local expansion can run without participation gains."}, {"headline": "Healthcare and manufacturing are carrying the region's momentum.", "body": "Both sectors are forecast to grow 5% and 6.9% respectively through 2035 and already sit at record employment levels statewide. Registered nurse pay rose significantly locally ($111,725, above the $102,252 national figure), signaling the sector's importance extends beyond headcount into wage leadership for the regional economy."}, {"headline": "Local wage softness in frontline roles breaks from the national inflation story.", "body": "Delivery driver and warehouse pay moved down significantly locally even as national figures held stable, and food service and CNA pay also declined moderately. That divergence suggests Dubuque's low unemployment rate coexists with subdued wage pressure, a pattern that differs from tighter national sectors like electrical engineering and IT."}, {"headline": "Iowa's wage-versus-inflation gap mirrors a national erosion of purchasing power.", "body": "Iowa's average weekly wage fell 1.7% year-over-year even as national CPI ran at 3.7%, compounding the real-wage erosion economists are tracking nationally (1.5% earnings growth against 3.5% CPI). For a metro this tight on labor supply, stagnant local wages alongside inflation raise questions about consumer spending capacity heading into 2027 budget cycles."}], "local_conditions": "Dubuque's economy continues to run tighter than both state and national benchmarks, with county unemployment at 2.4% in April and MSA nonfarm employment hitting a record 62,200 in June, up 1,200 year-over-year, driven by healthcare and manufacturing expansion. Construction and healthcare employment reached all-time highs statewide in September alongside steady 3.2% Iowa unemployment, while labor force participation has slipped as workers retire or return to education \u2014 a demographic pattern evident in local wage divergence, with registered nurse pay up significantly (Metro Median $111,725) even as teacher and administrative pay softened.", "implications": "Record metro employment alongside falling statewide labor force participation points to a capacity constraint \u2014 the region's economic ceiling may be set more by available workers than by business appetite to expand. Manufacturing production worker pay has moved down moderately even as the sector posts record employment levels, suggesting local employers are finding workers without the wage competition seen nationally, a sign of relative labor market slack within a tight headline rate. Commerce leaders evaluating expansion or relocation incentives should consider weighing workforce participation trends alongside unemployment data, since the latter alone may overstate how much labor slack actually exists locally.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether Iowa's labor force participation decline, now concentrated in the 45-54 age bracket, extends into the Dubuque MSA specifically when Q3 county-level QCEW data is released. A continued drop would confirm participation as the binding constraint on regional output."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Manufacturing carries both the state's strongest job gains (construction and healthcare at record highs) and its sharpest layoff exposure (54 WARN filings affecting 4,255 workers statewide year-to-date). Track whether any Dubuque-area manufacturers appear in forthcoming Iowa WARN filings as a signal of whether local resilience holds."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Statewide employed-persons count fell by 19,800 year-over-year even as job counts rose, an unusual divergence worth monitoring locally through year-end labor force data. Should Dubuque mirror this pattern, it would indicate the metro's tight unemployment rate is partly a function of workers leaving the labor force."}, {"category": "Expected", "body": "Second-quarter QCEW county data, released October 30, will offer the first detailed sector-level view of Dubuque employment since June's record print. Commerce leaders should expect this to clarify whether healthcare and manufacturing gains are broad-based or concentrated among a small number of named employers."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23400.0, "metro_p50": 28380.0, "metro_p75": 32165.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26304.0, "metro_p50": 28829.0, "metro_p75": 30160.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31892.5, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52659.0, "metro_p50": 76415.0, "metro_p75": 86320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28842.0, "metro_p50": 32483.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 44200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58664.0, "metro_p50": 66492.0, "metro_p75": 72519.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 44449.0, "metro_p75": 46176.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32779.0, "metro_p50": 37960.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28785.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 34445.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35228.0, "metro_p50": 40560.0, "metro_p75": 45645.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33800.0, "metro_p50": 36790.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59268.5, "metro_p50": 60476.8, "metro_p75": 60895.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 83190.5, "metro_p50": 111725.0, "metro_p75": 118478.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 90000.0, "metro_p50": 112092.0, "metro_p75": 122464.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 91535.5, "metro_p50": 127081.0, "metro_p75": 137908.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55929.0, "metro_p50": 60477.0, "metro_p75": 62795.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 69709.0, "metro_p50": 77402.4, "metro_p75": 77500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 49364.25, "metro_p50": 62400.0, "metro_p75": 68500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 48975.0, "metro_p50": 67351.2, "metro_p75": 77816.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 64060.0, "metro_p50": 94433.8, "metro_p75": 101503.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30122.5, "metro_p50": 39083.0, "metro_p75": 47563.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52440.0, "metro_p50": 66530.0, "metro_p75": 71514.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 60000.0, "metro_p75": 60000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 74818.75, "metro_p50": 93168.2, "metro_p75": 100370.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 54080.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 44966.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 34943.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 54080.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 51210.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 57500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 62979.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 80000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 31099.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 63328.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Telegraph Herald", "source_url": null, "statement": "Dubuque MSA reached record 62,200 nonfarm employees in June 2026"}, {"source_name": "BizTimes", "source_url": null, "statement": "Dubuque County unemployment at 2.4% in April 2026"}, {"source_name": "Iowa Workforce Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "Iowa labor force participation fell to 66.9% from 67.8%"}, {"source_name": "Iowa Workforce Development regional forecast", "source_url": null, "statement": "Healthcare and manufacturing forecast to grow 5% and 6.9% through 2035"}, {"source_name": "USA Facts", "source_url": null, "statement": "Iowa average weekly wage fell 1.7% year-over-year to $1,065"}, {"source_name": "LayoffIQ", "source_url": null, "statement": "Iowa WARN filings show 54 manufacturing notices affecting 4,255 employees YTD"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "dubuque-ia-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "dubuque-ia-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "dubuque-ia-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:21:12.933320+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/dubuque-ia-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/dubuque-ia-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}