{"schema_version": 1, "id": "dubuque-ia-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 122, "label": "Dubuque, IA MSA", "slug": "dubuque-ia-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:39:07.999354+00:00", "headline": "Dubuque's low jobless rate hides a two-speed economy.", "headline_summary": "Dubuque's 3.3% July unemployment rate beats the national 4.2%, but manufacturing pay is softening locally even as healthcare pay climbs to $111,956 \u2014 a divergence that points to uneven, not broad-based, economic momentum.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Dubuque MSA unemployment", "value": "3.3%", "context": "July 2026, vs 4.2% national rate"}, {"label": "National payroll growth", "value": "+29,000 jobs", "context": "September 2026, below 45k 12-mo average"}, {"label": "Iowa unemployment rate", "value": "3.2%", "context": "Steady 4th month, down from 3.5% a year ago"}, {"label": "Statewide job openings", "value": "60,378", "context": "Iowa Workforce Development, Sept 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Low unemployment is masking sector-level fragility.", "body": "Dubuque's 3.3% July unemployment rate looks strong against the 4.2% national figure, but manufacturing production worker pay is down moderately locally while healthcare and construction pay rise. A single-digit jobless rate is not the same as uniform economic health across the metro's business base."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing remains the metro's swing factor.", "body": "John Deere Dubuque Works layoffs in 2025 and continuing softness in manufacturing production pay point to a sector still absorbing demand shifts, even as statewide manufacturing added jobs in August. Given manufacturing's historic weight in the local economy, its trajectory will likely determine whether 2026 closes stronger or weaker than it opened."}, {"headline": "Healthcare and skilled trades are the current growth engine.", "body": "Registered nurse pay is up significantly locally (to $111,956, above the national median) and HVAC and electrician pay are both rising, mirroring the statewide pattern where healthcare and construction are the only sectors showing sustained annual job growth. This concentration suggests local business investment and real estate activity tied to healthcare and skilled trades deserve closer tracking than retail or logistics."}, {"headline": "National wage-inflation gap has not yet shown up locally.", "body": "National wage growth has slipped to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation, eroding real purchasing power, but Dubuque's own pay signals are more mixed \u2014 several metro roles show significant upward movement even as others decline. Local purchasing power trends are worth monitoring directly rather than assuming the national squeeze applies uniformly here."}], "local_conditions": "Dubuque's metro labor market continues to outperform the national trend on paper \u2014 July 2026 unemployment sat at 3.3% against a national rate of 4.2% \u2014 but employment growth has flattened after last year's record 62,200 non-farm employee peak, with manufacturing headwinds (John Deere Dubuque Works layoffs) weighing against resilience in education and health services. Statewide, wage growth is positive but modest (3.9% annual, per Q1 2026 BLS), while Dubuque's own advertised pay data shows a mixed picture \u2014 manufacturing production pay down moderately even as construction and registered nursing pay rise significantly, suggesting uneven momentum across sectors rather than broad-based strength.", "implications": "Divergent sector performance \u2014 manufacturing softness against healthcare and skilled-trades strength \u2014 suggests the metro's economic resilience is increasingly concentrated rather than broad-based, a distinction that matters for commerce leaders assessing where local business investment and expansion capacity actually exist. Public-sector and healthcare stability provide a floor for consumer spending even as manufacturing adjusts, but a repeat of 2025's Deere-related layoffs would test that floor given manufacturing's outsized share of the metro's job base. Commerce and economic development leaders should consider tracking sector-level advertised pay and job posting volume separately from the headline unemployment rate, since a low jobless rate can mask uneven underlying momentum.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Data gap to watch", "body": "Official BLS figures for the Dubuque MSA lag national releases by roughly two months, meaning September 2026 metro data will not surface until November. Commerce leaders making near-term judgments should treat July's 3.3% unemployment reading as the most current confirmed baseline."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Manufacturing accounted for 46% of Iowa's WARN-affected workers over the past 24 months, and Dubuque's own Deere-related layoffs fit that pattern. A repeat announcement from a major regional manufacturer would be the clearest signal of whether 2026 marks a turning point or a one-off adjustment."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Iowa's labor force is shrinking due to retirement outflows among 45-54-year-olds rather than job losses, a demographic dynamic that applies to Dubuque's aging workforce as well. Watch whether local labor force participation holds near the state's 67.0% rate or begins to soften as retirements accelerate."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National payroll growth slowed sharply to 29,000 jobs in September with downward revisions to prior months, and if that cooling trend persists it will eventually pressure even resilient metros like Dubuque. Track whether Iowa's 60,378 statewide job openings start to shrink as a leading sign of broader demand softening."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23780.0, "metro_p50": 28943.0, "metro_p75": 32240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26561.0, "metro_p50": 29106.6, "metro_p75": 30836.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31201.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52860.0, "metro_p50": 76025.6, "metro_p75": 85500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29120.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 39474.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 44200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58664.0, "metro_p50": 66253.0, "metro_p75": 73764.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36422.0, "metro_p50": 44657.4, "metro_p75": 46176.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29272.0, "metro_p50": 36400.0, "metro_p75": 37960.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29518.25, "metro_p50": 34095.0, "metro_p75": 34644.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35312.0, "metro_p50": 41344.0, "metro_p75": 45645.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33800.0, "metro_p50": 36400.0, "metro_p75": 40072.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59325.75, "metro_p50": 60895.0, "metro_p75": 60895.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 83183.0, "metro_p50": 111956.0, "metro_p75": 119135.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 93732.0, "metro_p50": 112092.0, "metro_p75": 112428.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 91434.0, "metro_p50": 127058.0, "metro_p75": 138368.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55862.5, "metro_p50": 60000.0, "metro_p75": 62940.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 69709.0, "metro_p50": 77500.0, "metro_p75": 83044.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 49176.0, "metro_p50": 60000.0, "metro_p75": 68500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 47500.0, "metro_p50": 80000.0, "metro_p75": 87083.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 64060.0, "metro_p50": 94295.8, "metro_p75": 101537.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32006.25, "metro_p50": 44924.8, "metro_p75": 50870.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58392.0, "metro_p50": 75051.0, "metro_p75": 85000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 52500.0, "metro_p50": 60000.0, "metro_p75": 60000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 73430.0, "metro_p50": 91978.2, "metro_p75": 99150.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 54080.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 44966.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 34333.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 51399.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 51210.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 60320.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 60233.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 79000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 29535.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 64892.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "dubuque-ia-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "dubuque-ia-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "dubuque-ia-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:50:12.243539+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/dubuque-ia-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/dubuque-ia-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}