{"schema_version": 1, "id": "dover-de-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 153, "label": "Dover, DE MSA", "slug": "dover-de-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:39:03.576281+00:00", "headline": "Dover holds steady at 4.2%, but Kent County tells a softer story.", "headline_summary": "Dover MSA unemployment reads a stable 4.2% even as Kent County posted 5.4% in June \u2014 the highest of Delaware's three counties \u2014 while metro wages of $1,180 weekly continue trailing the $1,654 national average.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Dover MSA unemployment rate", "value": "4.2%", "context": "September 2026, vs 4.1% U.S. national rate"}, {"label": "Kent County unemployment rate", "value": "5.4%", "context": "June 2026, highest of Delaware's 3 counties"}, {"label": "Dover-area average weekly wage", "value": "$1,180", "context": "Q1 2026, vs $1,654 U.S. national average"}, {"label": "National wage growth vs inflation", "value": "3.0% vs 3.4%", "context": "Sept 2026, wages now trailing inflation"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Dover's stability may mask a Kent County soft spot.", "body": "Metro unemployment reads 4.2%, yet Kent County \u2014 Dover's home county \u2014 posted 5.4% as recently as June, the highest of Delaware's three counties. Gap suggests the metro headline figure may understate pockets of labor market weakness nearest to Dover's own core."}, {"headline": "Government's size cuts both ways for Dover's economy.", "body": "At 20.9% of metro employment, government is Dover's single largest sector, offering a payroll stability buffer that most commerce-oriented metros lack. But it also means national trends \u2014 a 216,000 year-over-year decline in government payrolls, per BLS \u2014 translate directly into local exposure if federal or state budget pressure mounts."}, {"headline": "Wage levels lag badly, raising a purchasing-power question.", "body": "Dover-area average weekly wages run $1,180 versus $1,654 nationally, a gap wide enough to shape local consumer spending capacity independent of the jobs count. With national wage growth (3.0%) now trailing inflation (3.4%), a metro already near the wage floor faces a sharper real-income squeeze than higher-wage peers."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing pay strength stands out against a soft wage backdrop.", "body": "Manufacturing production/assembler pay rose significantly in the metro even as several other local roles (customer service, CNA/home health aide, HVAC) posted declines \u2014 an uneven pattern consistent with Delaware's statewide divergence between expanding sectors (professional/business services, health care, construction) and contracting ones (retail, manufacturing jobs counts, admin support)."}], "local_conditions": "Dover metro unemployment sits at 4.2% with nonfarm payroll employment holding near 29,000, but Kent County's 5.4% June reading \u2014 highest among Delaware's three counties \u2014 points to localized softness beneath the stable headline figure. Government remains the metro's largest employment pillar at 20.9% of jobs, meaning the national pullback in public-sector payrolls and softer federal activity carries outsized weight for Dover's economic base compared with more privately-driven metros.", "implications": "Dover's wage base, at $1,180 average weekly wage versus $1,654 nationally, means local purchasing power erodes faster when inflation outpaces nominal gains, a dynamic now visible nationally as wage growth slipped to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation. Commerce leaders evaluating expansion or investment timing should weigh that government's outsized local footprint offers payroll stability even as national public-sector employment contracts, a buffer most metros lack; current conditions suggest monitoring Kent County's unemployment gap against Dover's own reading as an early signal of whether metro-level stability is broad-based or concentrated in government payrolls.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Kent County's unemployment rate (5.4% in June) versus the Dover MSA's 4.2% September reading is a gap worth tracking monthly \u2014 convergence would signal broadening stability, continued divergence would suggest the metro figure is smoothing over real local softness."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "National government payrolls have shed 17,000 jobs in September and 216,000 over the past year; any signs of similar pressure reaching Delaware state or Kent County government payrolls would matter disproportionately given government's 20.9% share of Dover-area employment."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Delaware's labor force participation rate fell to 59.7% from 61.0% a year ago, a structural rather than cyclical shift. Watch whether Kent County specifically shows a similar participation decline, which would complicate any reading of falling unemployment as unambiguously positive."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National wage growth (3.0%) has fallen below inflation (3.4%) for the first time in two years. Given Dover's wages already trail the national average by roughly 29%, local consumer spending capacity bears watching as a leading indicator for metro-area retail and services activity."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26531.0, "metro_p50": 31484.0, "metro_p75": 34486.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27403.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32738.5, "metro_p50": 35326.4, "metro_p75": 37105.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61122.0, "metro_p50": 83980.0, "metro_p75": 92690.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30657.0, "metro_p50": 34122.0, "metro_p75": 39053.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34562.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 40010.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 49986.0, "metro_p50": 62400.0, "metro_p75": 67704.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33227.0, "metro_p50": 36606.0, "metro_p75": 37099.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32541.0, "metro_p50": 37897.0, "metro_p75": 39953.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29903.0, "metro_p50": 35880.0, "metro_p75": 37315.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29690.0, "metro_p50": 35817.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27474.0, "metro_p50": 39518.0, "metro_p75": 43710.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62238.0, "metro_p50": 64091.0, "metro_p75": 72800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 84781.0, "metro_p50": 95233.0, "metro_p75": 104816.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 128313.25, "metro_p50": 163651.0, "metro_p75": 179619.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 109617.5, "metro_p50": 139225.0, "metro_p75": 153419.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58863.0, "metro_p50": 69388.4, "metro_p75": 77749.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 75603.75, "metro_p50": 99963.2, "metro_p75": 109507.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59846.75, "metro_p50": 81591.4, "metro_p75": 105519.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50403.25, "metro_p50": 75159.0, "metro_p75": 91018.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 65965.0, "metro_p50": 67500.0, "metro_p75": 67500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37340.5, "metro_p50": 57508.8, "metro_p75": 63613.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 77779.5, "metro_p50": 100000.0, "metro_p75": 115622.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": null, "metro_p25": null, "metro_p50": null, "metro_p75": null, "metro_trend_direction": null, "metro_trend_magnitude": null, "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79657.25, "metro_p50": 95118.6, "metro_p75": 104531.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 67036.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 114997.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 55120.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 66546.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 142965.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 97856.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 81086.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 71970.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 32392.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 55451.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "dover-de-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "dover-de-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "dover-de-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:50:11.144842+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/dover-de-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/dover-de-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}