{"schema_version": 1, "id": "dothan-al-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 182, "label": "Dothan, AL MSA", "slug": "dothan-al-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:38:58.991878+00:00", "headline": "Dothan unemployment climbs while health care and trades hold firm.", "headline_summary": "Dothan MSA unemployment rose from 2.3% to 3.9% between December 2025 and July 2026 even as registered nurse pay reached $96,143 and HVAC technician pay rose significantly, underscoring a local economy splitting between softening goods-sector activity and resilient skilled-service demand.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Dothan MSA unemployment rate", "value": "3.9%", "context": "Up from 2.3% in December 2025 (July 2026 data)"}, {"label": "Alabama unemployment rate", "value": "3.4%", "context": "Vs. 4.1% national rate, August 2026"}, {"label": "Houston County avg. weekly wage", "value": "$1,131", "context": "Q1 2026, below Alabama's $1,292 statewide average"}, {"label": "National wage growth vs. inflation", "value": "3.0% vs 3.4%", "context": "Weakest wage pace since May 2021"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Dothan's unemployment rise outpaces the state's cooling trend.", "body": "The metro's jump from 2.3% to 3.9% unemployment between December 2025 and July 2026 is steeper than Alabama's flat 3.4% statewide reading, suggesting local softening is outrunning the broader state pattern rather than simply tracking it."}, {"headline": "Blue-collar pay retreat concentrated in construction and manufacturing.", "body": "Construction laborer pay fell significantly (down to $28,752 against a national $40,560) and manufacturing production pay dropped moderately, a split that mirrors Alabama's statewide declines in construction and trade/transportation employment over the past month."}, {"headline": "Skilled trades and health care are the metro's counter-cyclical bright spot.", "body": "HVAC technician and electrician pay both rose significantly locally while registered nurse pay climbed to $96,143, tracking national health care job gains (+17,000 in September) and suggesting these sectors are absorbing demand the broader goods economy is shedding."}, {"headline": "Professional and knowledge-work pay strength looks disconnected from local unemployment.", "body": "Software engineer, accountant, and business analyst advertised pay all rose even as headline unemployment climbed, consistent with a labor market splitting along skill lines locally just as it has nationally."}], "local_conditions": "Dothan MSA unemployment climbed to 3.9% in July 2026, up from 2.3% in December 2025, even as Houston County's average weekly wage held near $1,131 \u2014 a combination that suggests labor supply loosening faster than wage pressure is easing. Divergent local pay moves reinforce the pattern: skilled-trade and health care postings (HVAC, electrician, registered nurse) are rising sharply while manufacturing, construction labor, and logistics pay are falling, consistent with Alabama's statewide pullback in trade, transportation and construction employment.", "implications": "Rising local unemployment alongside falling advertised pay in manufacturing, construction labor, and logistics points to softening demand in goods-movement and production sectors, a signal economic development officials should weigh when assessing near-term industrial expansion prospects. Meanwhile, sustained wage strength in health care, skilled trades, and professional services (accounting, software, business analysis) suggests those segments remain the metro's momentum carriers even as the broader labor market cools. Commerce leaders evaluating the local business climate should consider monitoring whether the manufacturing and logistics softening reflects a temporary inventory or freight cycle versus a structural pullback tied to broader national WARN activity in those sectors.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected release", "body": "BLS publishes September 2026 MSA-level unemployment data on October 28 \u2014 the first clean read on whether the July uptick to 3.9% continued or reversed."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Statewide WARN filings in 2026 are concentrated in manufacturing and logistics (Legacy Cabinets, Resolute Forest Products, Saddle Creek Logistics); watch for any similar notice touching Houston County given local manufacturing and warehouse pay softness."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "National wage growth has slipped to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation, the weakest pace since 2021 \u2014 if that gap persists, local consumer-facing sectors (retail, food service) may see softer demand regardless of local job counts."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Alabama's prime-age labor force participation has held flat at 79.5% for months; a shift either direction in Houston County would signal whether discouraged workers are re-entering or exiting the local labor pool."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 20173.0, "metro_p50": 24960.0, "metro_p75": 28595.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 21840.0, "metro_p50": 24100.0, "metro_p75": 25175.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29464.0, "metro_p50": 34276.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58760.0, "metro_p50": 81900.0, "metro_p75": 92139.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28643.0, "metro_p50": 32430.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26986.0, "metro_p50": 28751.6, "metro_p75": 31294.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57705.0, "metro_p50": 62400.0, "metro_p75": 65375.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28218.25, "metro_p50": 30107.0, "metro_p75": 33065.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30893.25, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 39780.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26488.0, "metro_p50": 30984.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28391.5, "metro_p50": 34609.0, "metro_p75": 36458.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30872.5, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 48505.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58168.5, "metro_p50": 68091.0, "metro_p75": 70033.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 80143.0, "metro_p50": 96143.0, "metro_p75": 106151.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 105123.0, "metro_p50": 150463.0, "metro_p75": 163407.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 95965.0, "metro_p50": 107500.0, "metro_p75": 107500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55804.0, "metro_p50": 70000.0, "metro_p75": 71160.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 71895.0, "metro_p50": 92000.0, "metro_p75": 101712.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52260.0, "metro_p50": 56415.0, "metro_p75": 58760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 43367.0, "metro_p50": 57285.0, "metro_p75": 69020.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 55900.0, "metro_p50": 71778.6, "metro_p75": 78593.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29500.0, "metro_p50": 56041.0, "metro_p75": 61129.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 80000.0, "metro_p75": 87500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 49567.75, "metro_p50": 58928.0, "metro_p75": 82500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 81235.0, "metro_p50": 97933.0, "metro_p75": 109998.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 52445.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 58085.5, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 33409.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 58760.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 75475.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 46670.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 65350.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 92664.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 29374.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 64839.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "dothan-al-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "dothan-al-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "dothan-al-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:50:09.536172+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/dothan-al-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/dothan-al-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}