{"schema_version": 1, "id": "decatur-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 166, "label": "Decatur, IL MSA", "slug": "decatur-il-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:32:23.601980+00:00", "headline": "Decatur's labor slack gives operators room \u2014 but hospitality jobs are shrinking.", "headline_summary": "Decatur unemployment sits at 5.6%, well above Illinois's 4.7% and the national 4.1%, even as local Leisure and Hospitality employment slipped to 3.8 thousand jobs.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Decatur MSA unemployment rate", "value": "5.6%", "context": "vs 4.7% Illinois, 4.1% national (Sept 2026)"}, {"label": "Decatur Leisure & Hospitality jobs", "value": "3.8K", "context": "Down from prior periods through Nov 2025"}, {"label": "National accommodation/food svc openings", "value": "673,000", "context": "Down from 916,000 in Jan 2026"}, {"label": "Illinois food services employment", "value": "448.80K", "context": "Down 0.11% YoY, up 1.22% MoM (Sept 2026)"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Decatur's labor slack looks deeper than the state average.", "body": "A 5.6% metro unemployment rate against Illinois's 4.7% and the national 4.1% suggests Decatur operators face less competitive pressure on entry-level hiring than peers elsewhere in the state. That gap widens the case for holding Crew and Line Cook pay near current levels rather than matching Chicago-driven wage inflation."}, {"headline": "Shift Manager pay moving up while GM pay moves down is a signal.", "body": "Shift Manager advertised pay rose to a metro median of $34,840 \u2014 above the national figure \u2014 while Restaurant Manager/GM pay fell to $58,000, below its $59,618 national counterpart. That inversion may suggest operators are investing in frontline supervisory coverage to manage leaner staffing rather than funding upper management layers, a cost-control pattern worth tracking against turnover data."}, {"headline": "Leisure and Hospitality jobs are shrinking even as the metro recovers.", "body": "Overall Decatur nonfarm employment posted the state's largest over-the-year gain in July (+0.8%), yet Leisure and Hospitality headcount fell to 3.8 thousand through November. Hiring strength is concentrated elsewhere in the local economy, meaning restaurant employers may need to compete harder for a shrinking share of available workers despite loose metro-wide unemployment."}, {"headline": "Tipped-wage compliance risk is rising even where statewide policy is frozen.", "body": "Illinois's $15.00 minimum wage has no scheduled 2026 increases outside Chicago, but state enforcement activity \u2014 including a recent $3,173 backwage and damages order over 21 hours of unpaid server time \u2014 shows audit risk is active regardless of policy stability. Weekly, not biweekly, tip-credit verification remains the compliance trap most likely to surface in smaller-market operations with lean administrative support."}], "local_conditions": "Decatur MSA unemployment eased to 5.6% in September from a February peak of 6.8%, but remains well above the 4.7% Illinois and 4.1% national rates, reflecting the metro's narrow, slow-growing labor base of roughly 110,500 residents. Leisure and Hospitality employment has contracted to 3.8 thousand jobs even as overall nonfarm payrolls ticked up, suggesting restaurant hiring is lagging the metro's broader \u2014 still fragile \u2014 recovery.", "implications": "Soft local Leisure and Hospitality headcount alongside elevated unemployment points to a buyer's market for front-of-house and back-of-house labor, even though statewide food services employment is flat year-over-year and national job openings in accommodation and food services have dropped from 916,000 to 673,000 since January. Decatur operators have more room than peer metros to hold the line on advertised pay and redirect dollars toward scheduling precision and retention rather than wage escalation, but thin population growth means any uptick in demand could tighten candidate pools quickly. Consider reviewing whether current advertised pay for Server and Assistant Manager roles \u2014 both trending down locally \u2014 reflects genuine market softness or risks under-shooting a labor pool that has few nearby alternatives.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Decatur's unemployment rate swung from 4.9% in July to 5.6% in September \u2014 a reversal worth monitoring for whether it reflects seasonal noise or a renewed softening that could ease hiring pressure further into Q4."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Statewide food services employment is down 0.11% year-over-year despite a 1.22% monthly bump, indicating replacement hiring is absorbing most of the sector's movement. Watch whether Decatur's Leisure and Hospitality segment stabilizes or continues contracting as the broader metro recovery proceeds."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "National accommodation and food services job openings have fallen by roughly 27% since January, a trend that \u2014 if it reaches smaller Midwest metros \u2014 could further reduce Decatur operators' urgency to raise advertised pay this fall."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Illinois WARN filings for 2026 (91 notices, 16,782 workers year-to-date) remain concentrated in finance, information, and trade sectors rather than hospitality, but any spillover into Decatur-area retail or logistics layoffs could expand the local candidate pool available to restaurant operators."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33405.75, "metro_p50": 37960.0, "metro_p75": 45001.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39000.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 39001.0, "metro_p50": 55120.0, "metro_p75": 61361.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 50960.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23884.0, "metro_p50": 32240.0, "metro_p75": 32240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 29839.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30711.0, "metro_p50": 34840.0, "metro_p75": 37544.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 36826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 49844.0, "metro_p50": 58000.0, "metro_p75": 63500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 59618.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27577.0, "metro_p50": 30217.4, "metro_p75": 32654.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 35012.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30837.0, "metro_p50": 34840.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 32731.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "decatur-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "pdf": "decatur-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:50:01.677832+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/decatur-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/decatur-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}