{"schema_version": 1, "id": "decatur-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 166, "label": "Decatur, IL MSA", "slug": "decatur-il-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:31:51.548699+00:00", "headline": "Decatur's falling jobless rate hides a shrinking workforce.", "headline_summary": "Decatur unemployment dropped to 5.1% from 6.1% a year ago even as the metro shed 200 jobs in September and payrolls fell to 47,700, a combination more consistent with workforce contraction than economic strength.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Decatur MSA unemployment rate", "value": "5.1%", "context": "Down from 6.1% a year earlier (Aug. 2026)"}, {"label": "Decatur nonfarm payrolls", "value": "47,700", "context": "Down 400 jobs year-over-year; -200 in September"}, {"label": "Illinois labor force, year-over-year", "value": "-1.3%", "context": "Statewide contraction alongside falling unemployment"}, {"label": "Illinois statewide unemployment rate", "value": "4.6%", "context": "Third straight monthly decline, vs Decatur's 5.1%"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Lower unemployment is masking a shrinking workforce.", "body": "Decatur's jobless rate dropped a full percentage point year-over-year to 5.1% in August, but nonfarm payrolls fell over the same period and again in September. That pairing is consistent with workers leaving the labor force, a distinction that changes what the headline rate means for local economic capacity."}, {"headline": "Warehouse and logistics pay is pulling away from the national line.", "body": "Advertised pay for warehouse and fulfillment roles in Decatur sits at $41,600, well above the $38,480 national median and trending up significantly, while CDL driver pay also runs above the national figure. That divergence points to logistics and distribution as one of the few pockets of sustained local wage pressure."}, {"headline": "Skilled trades pay is softening against a national uptrend.", "body": "Electrician advertised pay in Decatur fell significantly to $63,440 even as the national median climbed to $71,835, and construction laborer pay dropped to $35,360 against a rising $40,727 nationally. Diverging from the national trades market this sharply may reflect softer local construction and infrastructure demand."}, {"headline": "Public-sector and education wage trends bear watching for stability.", "body": "Teacher pay in the metro fell moderately to $49,013 against a rising $55,908 national median, even as Illinois government payrolls contracted statewide in September. Local public-sector wage softness alongside statewide public employment declines is a signal worth tracking for what it implies about regional service capacity and household stability."}], "local_conditions": "Decatur MSA nonfarm payrolls fell by 200 jobs in September 2026, extending a slow contraction that trimmed total employment to 47,700 by August even as the unemployment rate improved to 5.1% from 6.1% a year earlier. That combination \u2014 fewer jobs against a lower jobless rate \u2014 appears consistent with a shrinking local labor force, echoing the statewide pattern of Illinois workforce contraction and softer labor force participation.", "implications": "Falling unemployment paired with payroll losses signals a tightening labor pool, which matters for commerce leaders weighing local expansion: available workers may be scarcer even though headline unemployment looks favorable. Wage divergence across the metro's advertised-pay basket \u2014 warehouse pay up significantly while construction labor, electrician, and customer service pay move lower \u2014 suggests uneven demand across sectors. Commerce and economic development leaders should consider evaluating sector-specific conditions before drawing metro-wide conclusions about business climate.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "September's 200-job payroll decline follows a similar loss pattern seen earlier in 2026; a third consecutive monthly drop would confirm structural contraction and warrants close tracking in October's state release."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Illinois' labor force has shrunk roughly 109,000 over the past year with participation down to 63.6%. Decatur's falling unemployment alongside falling payrolls suggests the metro may be contributing to that statewide trend, which has direct implications for how much local labor capacity exists to support business expansion."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Logistics and warehouse wage strength locally diverges from flat national retail and customer-service pay, measured by job ads, which track demand and often cover several openings each. Commerce leaders should watch whether this reflects a specific distribution-sector expansion in the metro or a tightening pool of available warehouse labor."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National WARN filings remain elevated (3,860 notices through late October) and Illinois WARN activity is up 24% year-over-year statewide, concentrated in manufacturing and distribution. A single large metro-area filing would be the clearest signal of whether Decatur's slow job losses are about to accelerate."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 34528.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29010.0, "metro_p50": 32262.4, "metro_p75": 34320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34161.5, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57200.0, "metro_p50": 82615.0, "metro_p75": 93600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31118.0, "metro_p50": 35190.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32881.5, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 38836.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56177.0, "metro_p50": 63440.0, "metro_p75": 72897.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35556.0, "metro_p50": 42432.0, "metro_p75": 47840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24504.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 37656.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29643.75, "metro_p50": 33800.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 40560.0, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35156.5, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 47840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59195.0, "metro_p50": 72800.0, "metro_p75": 83200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 81768.0, "metro_p50": 102844.2, "metro_p75": 111602.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 94749.0, "metro_p50": 94750.0, "metro_p75": 116084.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 99151.0, "metro_p50": 140500.0, "metro_p75": 157900.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60600.0, "metro_p50": 75141.8, "metro_p75": 80888.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 75001.5, "metro_p50": 94688.0, "metro_p75": 102236.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 69186.5, "metro_p50": 89557.0, "metro_p75": 89557.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 47901.0, "metro_p50": 66560.0, "metro_p75": 76003.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 75000.0, "metro_p50": 98658.0, "metro_p75": 105495.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36660.0, "metro_p50": 49012.8, "metro_p75": 53849.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 75437.0, "metro_p50": 108799.4, "metro_p75": 120409.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 65000.0, "metro_p50": 88516.0, "metro_p75": 91748.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79637.5, "metro_p50": 91484.0, "metro_p75": 91726.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 67600.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 87720.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 34807.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 66345.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 47012.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 57041.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 63066.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 69680.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 33665.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 63079.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "USA Facts", "source_url": null, "statement": "Decatur MSA lost 200 jobs in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Illinois Department of Employment Security", "source_url": null, "statement": "Decatur unemployment rate 5.1% in August 2026, down from 6.1%"}, {"source_name": "Illinois Department of Employment Security", "source_url": null, "statement": "Decatur nonfarm payrolls totaled 47,700 in August 2026, down 400 year-over-year"}, {"source_name": "Illinois Department of Employment Security", "source_url": null, "statement": "Illinois labor force shrank ~109,000 over year ending Dec. 2025; participation at 63.6%"}, {"source_name": "layoffdata.com", "source_url": null, "statement": "Illinois WARN notices up 24% year-over-year in 2026, concentrated in manufacturing"}, {"source_name": "Illinois Department of Employment Security", "source_url": null, "statement": "Illinois unemployment fell to 4.6% in September, third consecutive monthly decline"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "decatur-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "decatur-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "decatur-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:20:57.179651+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/decatur-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/decatur-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}